Motio Research's initial estimate of U.S. median household income for July 2026 is $87,810, a $300 (or 0.34%) decrease from the firm's initial estimate of $88,110 for June 2026.

Here are screenshots of the interactive charts Motio Research provides to visualize trends in the U.S.' median household income. The first chart presents the firm's Household Income Index, which is based on three-month moving average that sets the period of January 2010 through March 2010 at a value of 100 after making adjustments for inflation and seasonality in the data. The second chart presents their monthly median household income estimates in nominal (not adjusted for inflation) terms for the period from January 2010 through July 2026.

Monthly Household Income Index

Median Household Income Estimates

Here is Motio Research's commentary for July 2026, in which they raise an alarm for seeing their median household income estimates and index record their second decline in as many months:

Motio's original monthly headline series, which begins in 2010, includes Census-imputed income data and shows a recent deterioration in the income level.

Nominal median household income fell 0.3 percent in July to $87,810, its second consecutive monthly decline. The combined June–July fall of 0.6 percent was the second-largest two-month decline outside the pandemic disruption in the series, exceeded only in May–June 2010, when household income was still contracting in the aftermath of the 2007–09 recession.

Real median household income fell 0.7 percent in July to $88,060, following a 0.5 percent decline in June. The U.S. Real Median Household Income Index fell to 118.0.

“These readings do not establish a formal turning point,,” said Romina Soria, co-founder and principal economist at Motio Research. “But year-over-year growth in real household income has slowed to nearly zero, while both real and nominal income have now fallen for two straight months. The next releases will show whether household income rebounds or continues to weaken.”

Since Motio Research's estimates are derived from survey-based data, it's possible they're seeing some noise from turnover in the sampled population being surveyed each month. It's more likely however the survey-based data is capturing changes that the data Political Calculations uses to derive our complementary estimates of median household income is slower to register.

At least, that's our experience from seeing our estimates lag behind the upward surge the Motio's survey-based estimates recorded a year earlier. We'll see if that pattern continues with next month's data releases.

Analyst's Notes

As we mentioned, Political Calculations produces monthly median household income estimates using an alternate methodology that complements Motio Research's survey-based estimates. In July 2026, Political Calculations' initial estimate of median household income is $88,150. This estimate is $216 (or 0.25%) higher than our initial estimate of $87,934 for June 2026's median household income.

The following chart presents our estimates of U.S. median household income, both adjusted for inflation (blue) and not-adjusted for inflation (red) for each month from January 2000 through July 2026.

Political Calculations' July 2026 estimate is $340 (0.4%) below Motio Research's estimate of $87,810 for the month. While we're still seeing our median household estimates rise, as opposed to the declines Motio Research has registered in their estimates during the last two months, we are seeing the rate of increase of our estimates slow. The change represents a negative change in momentum for median household income and is a cause for concern.

References

U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. Table 2.6. Personal Income and Its Disposition, Monthly, Personal Income and Outlays, Not Seasonally Adjusted, Monthly, Middle of Month. Population. [Online Database (via Federal Reserve Economic Data)]. Last Updated: 28 August 2026. Accessed: 28 August 2026.

U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. Table 2.6. Personal Income and Its Disposition, Monthly, Personal Income and Outlays, Not Seasonally Adjusted, Monthly, Middle of Month. Compensation of Employees, Received: Wage and Salary Disbursements. [Online Database (via Federal Reserve Economic Data)]. Last Updated: 28 August 2026. Accessed: 28 August 2026.

Image credit: U.S. Census Bureau. We modified the public domain image to make it more generally applicable beyond reporting the median household income from 2022.

The S&P 500 (Index: SPX) closed the trading week ending Friday, 28 August 2026 at 7,711.76, up 0.4% from where it closed out the preceding week.

The biggest market moving event of the week came on Friday, as the new chair of the Federal Reserve spoke at the Fed's annual retreat in Jackson Hole, Wyoming. Warsh had one message he wanted to deliver, which was the Federal Reserve would act to hike interest rates while inflation in the U.S. exceeded the Fed's target for it.

That message affected investor outlook for rate hikes. The CME Group's FedWatch Tool moved up the timing of when it expects the Fed will hike the Federal Funds Rate since the previous edition of the S&P 500 chaos series. It now projects the Fed will hike this base interest rate by a quarter percent on 16 September (2026-Q3), three months sooner than anticipated a week earlier.

The FedWatch Tool now also gives a better than 50% chance the Fed will follow up with another quarter point rate hike after its 9 December (2026-Q4) meeting.

Looking further forward, having the two rate hikes in 2026 drops the likelihood of any additional rate hikes in 2027 from the FedWatch Tool's outlook. The latest update of the dividend futures chart shows investors maintained their forward-looking focus on the upcoming future quarter of 2027-Q1, however if just given the week's news, we think it would be very likely that investors are shifting their forward-looking attention to the nearer term future of 2026-Q4.

For the near term future trajectory of the S&P 500, that Lévy flight event would be accompanied by a relatively modest change in stock prices, assuming no other new information arrives to prompt investors to shift their investment horizon back out to a more distant future quarter. Which if it were significant enough, would be accompanied by a more significant upward movement in stock prices according to the dividend futures-based model's projections.

Such a move could be driven by something like the unexpected after-the-closing-bell news of the Trump administration's deal with Venezuela to secure control of more than 65 billion barrels of oil, for example. We'll be covering the impact of that news in next week's edition.

There's a lot that hinges on the random onset of new information that affects investor expectations for the future. Speaking of which, here's an example of what that kind of information looked like during the past week.

Monday, 24 August 2026

• Signs and portents for the U.S. economy:
• US hits Canadian goods with 50% tariffs after trade talks fail
• Canada to retaliate for US tariffs, worsening ties after talks fail
• Trump threatens 50% tariffs on all cars and trucks from Canada amid trade fight
• U.S. Trade Rep Greer blames Canada for failed tariff talks: ‘They wanted more’
• Oil drops more than $2 despite new US sanctions on Iran
• US threatens countries doing business with Iran, but holds off on penalties for now
• Fed minions not so worried about rising interest rates on U.S. Treasuries, new Chief Minion faces first big test:
• Fed's Kashkari not worried about rising US Treasury yields
• Bond market anxiety raises stakes for Warsh's debut Jackson Hole speech
• Bessent could tap near $1 trillion Treasury General Account to fund bond buybacks, sources said
• Chief ECB minion getting ready to jump ship and cash in on job she's long coveted:
• ECB chief Lagarde 'ready to serve' WEF, Swiss newspaper reports
• S&P 500, Nasdaq end down on tech stocks, investors weigh Iran moves
• Stock market ends mixed as tech stocks, yields slide
• Bitcoin jumps 3%, closing in on $80,000 as rally gathers pace
• Gold hits over three-month high on dollar weakness, Treasury bond buyback plans

Tuesday, 25 August 2026

• Signs and portents for the U.S. economy:
• Why the bond market may be resetting expectations about the US
• US Treasury to stick to debt auction schedule despite bigger buybacks, Bessent says
• US Treasury buybacks a 'mistake' costing credibility, says Druckenmiller
• Oil hits one-week low as investors shrug off US sanctions on Iran
• July new home sales miss estimates
• Fed minion wants higher interest rates in U.S.:
• US rates need to rise soon absent evidence of ongoing drop in inflation, Fed's Collins says
• Four Fed bank boards wanted rate hike, minutes show
• Bigger trouble, stimulus developing in China:
• China credit slump could hit U.S. stocks, Société Générale’s Albert Edwards warns
• US eyes China overcapacity tariffs of 7.5% before Xi-Trump talks, Bloomberg News reports
• China's $119 billion policy financing tool begins project applications, faces roll-out lag
• BOJ minions getting excited to hike Japan's interest rates again:
• BOJ to speed up its tightening campaign, raise key rate to 1.25% in September
• Japan's corporate services inflation accelerates in July
• Wall Street ended higher ahead of Nvidia earnings and key inflation data
• Wall Street ends higher as tech rebounds before Nvidia results

Wednesday, 26 August 2026

• Signs and portents for the U.S. economy:
• US inflation remains elevated as GDP growth outlook brightens
• Core PCE inflation rises as expected in July, headline PCE accelerates
• Americans’ spending outpaces income for record 25 months
• Mortgage rates hit highest level in 3 weeks, weakening demand further
• Canada slaps retaliatory tariffs on US goods as trade war intensifies
• Oil prices slide 2% on Iran-Oman talks to reopen Strait of Hormuz
• Bond rout ending? Massive bets on bond rally dominate options market
• Fed minions only a bit more likely to hike U.S. interest rates:
• Fed seen a bit more likely to hike after inflation data
• Bigger trouble developing in China:
• Bill Gates, alarmed by AI, has policy ideas he wants to discuss with China's Xi
• ECB minions want one more interest rate hike in Eurozone:
• Interest rates must rise further on inflation risks, ECB's Schnabel tells Bloomberg
• ECB set for September rate hike with no appetite to signal more, sources say
• Wall Street edged lower after inflation data and ahead of Nvidia earnings
• Wall Street stocks end tad lower after hot inflation data ahead of Nvidia earnings

Thursday, 27 August 2026

• Signs and portents for the U.S. economy:
• Nvidia forecasts 70% sales growth next year, signals AI spending boom has years left to run
• Oil gains as traders weigh prospects of Hormuz reopening
• OPEC+ loses oil market sway in Iran war as China gains influence
• New Chief Fed minion has got some problems:
• Fed's Warsh faces challenge whether inflation is a problem or not
• Bessent, Warsh diverge on who should set the price of money
• As Jackson Hole conference kicks off, three Fed officials issue inflation warnings
• Fed's Collins says latest US inflation readings are 'mixed'
• Fed's Hammack tells Fox Business inflation likely to ease slowly
• BOJ minions getting excited to hike Japan's interest rates some more:
• BOJ deputy governor Himino calls for 'timely' rate hike
• ECB minions see growth signs in Eurozone, want to hike interest rates:
• Euro zone lending growth picks up, ECB says
• ECB saw a further hike as likely at July meeting
• Wall Street ended higher after Nvidia results as eyes turn to Jackson Hole
• Nasdaq, S&P 500 lifted by Nvidia's forecast; investors eye speech by Fed's Warsh
• Nvidia ignites chip stock rally as forecast shows AI boom is intact
• Nvidia forecasts 70% sales growth next year, signals AI spending boom has years left to run

Friday, 28 August 2026

• Signs and portents for the U.S. economy:
• US employment growth only modestly lower than thought in BLS revision
• Oil prices fall for the week on U.S.-Iran talks stalemate
• New Chief Fed minion says to expect hikes if inflation stays above minions' target:
• Warsh signals Fed may need to hike rates if above-target inflation persists
• Warsh's 'quieter Fed' now includes a smidgen of guidance
• VIEW Rate-hike expectations rise on Warsh speech at Jackson Hole
• The August Labor Market Report To Cement The September Fed Hike
• Mixed growth signs, stimulus developing in China:
• China's factory activity seen contracting again in August
• China’s largest five banks report strongest first-half profit since height of property crash
• China home prices seen falling slightly less this year, property investment slump deepens - Reuters poll
• China to reform home sales system to curb delivery risks
• Shanghai plans subsidies to kick start dormant offshore debt market, sources say
• BOJ minions excited to see Japan's inflation near their target, even more excited for chance to hike interest rates again as they tally the cost of propping up the yen:
• Tokyo core inflation creeps near BOJ's target, bolsters rate-hike chance
• Japan spent record $96.5 billion to support yen over past month, ministry data shows
• ECB minions worried about missing out on blockchain:
• ECB should embrace blockchain to safeguard its role, Schnabel says
• S&P 500 falls Friday after Fed’s Warsh highlights inflation worries, but index posts positive week
• Wall Street ends lower after Fed Chair Warsh reaffirms inflation fight
• Stocks close lower as Warsh vows to bring inflation down
• S&P 500 posts weekly gains as Nvidia fuels renewed AI rally

The Atlanta Fed's GDPNow tool projects +4.6% real GDP growth for the U.S. economy in 2026-Q3, rebounding from the +4.0% annualized growth it forecast a week earlier.

Image credit: Microsoft Copilot Designer. Prompt: "An editorial cartoon of the new Federal Reserve chief pointing to a PowerPoint slide that shows a train labeled 'RATE HIKES' heading toward a Wall Street bull tied to railroad tracks by a villain holding a sign that says 'INFLATION ABOVE TARGET'." We had to add a follow on prompt to "make the Fed chief look like Kevin Warsh" because the AI image generator is still defaulting to a caricature of Jerome Powell.

A long time ago, before studio executives sucked all the remaining lifeforce out of it, fans of Star Wars eagerly anticipated the release of a new movie in the series. One that would finally continue the epic story of the original trilogy after years of diversions with mostly unsatisfying prequels.

The year was 2015. The movie was Star Wars: Episode VII - The Force Awakens. And though it was something of a rehash of the original trilogy, the talented visual and special effects team who made it succeeded in creating a new character that captured the fandom's imagination.

We are, of course, referring to the BB-8 astromech droid, which in retrospect, was perhaps the most realistic character introduced in the new movie because it was based on new, but existing technology. Not proto-AI, not CGI, but actual patented mechanical and electrical components. The movie's producers put a featurette together to show off how they did it.

Meanwhile, the studio executives made sure there was a BB-8 Droid toy available in stores when the movie came out as part of their vision for sucking the lifeforce out of Star Wars by hoovering up cash from the movies' fans.

Including droids as characters that could be easily turned into marketable toys has always been their purpose in the Star Wars franchise. Because when you really think about what their roles are in the Star Wars universe, they don't make much sense. For example, why wouldn't the people who make X-wing fighters just build-in whatever it is that droids do in X-wing fighters into the X-wing fighters themselves?

When you think about it that way, why on earth would anyone even try to make a robot like the BB-8 droid with the form factor of a ball with a static component that rides on top of it? Where would it ever make sense to have a technology like that?

Over ten years after BB-8's cinematic introduction, we might finally have an answer to that question that actually does make sense. Rollo Robotics has created the world's first autonomous and self-balancing monowheel robot, which in addition to being inspired in part by BB-8, has potential applications in mind for which it would be useful.

The following video introduces the company's prototype monowheel robot technology:

If it pans out, the monowheel robot's cost effective means of monitoring and patrolling open areas of ground could reshape how security is provided at facilities that require it. Beyond that, monowheel robots could find use as probes for exploring the surfaces of the moon and planets.

But as Core77's Rain Noe observed, the technology has a big challenge that would limit its adoption: stairs.

But to overcome that challenge, perhaps we can turn to another depleted sci-fi/fantasy series for the obvious solution:

We wouldn't say the Daleks' solution to their problems with stairs makes much sense either, but at least somebody is out there thinking about these things!

August 2026 was a good month overall for the Thanksgiving Leftover Stocks of 2025.

Compared to their July 2026 snapshot, both our hypothetical indices of the ten worst stocks within the S&P 500 (Index: SPX) during 2025 saw month-over-month gains. The market cap-weighted index of these stocks increased from 87.4% to 91.4% of its value on the day after Thanksgiving 2025, while the equal-weighted index grew more, rising from 88.5% to 94.7%.

Both these indices are still lagging behind the overall S&P 500 index. The benchmark index increased from 108.2% to 112.1% of its day-after-Thanksgiving Day 2025 value in the month from the July to August snapshots.

The following chart shows the performance of all three sets of stocks, with the two Thanksgiving Leftover stock indices continuing to lag behind the S&P 500 index by a wide margin.

It's worth noting why the equal-weighted version of the ten stock index is performing better than the market cap-weighted version. The largest component of the market-cap weighted index is Chipotle Mexican Grill (NYSE: CMG), which accounts for 23.5% of its value. Shortly after the July 2026 snapshot, Chipotle's stock plunged when jalapeno peppers served at the chain's restaurants in Minnesota were linked to an outbreak of salmonella.

Although Chipotle acted quickly to pull all potentially affected jalapenos from its restaurants, investors sent its stock down sharply, losing nearly 16% of its value in a week. Since then, Chipotle's stock has largely recovered to its pre-jalapeno recall level.

That recovery however lagged behind the improvement of several other Thanksgiving Leftover stocks, which gave the edge to the equal-weighted version of the index. The stock of Gartner (NYSE: IT) led the month, rising from 63.4% to 82.5% of its value on 28 November 2026 as investors shook off some of the AI disruption discounting they had earlier imposed on it. the stock price of Factset Research Systems (NYSE: FDS) also saw outsized gains for the same reason, rising from 95.6% to 106.6% of its post-Thanksgiving Day 2025 level.

Two of the individual Thanksgiving Leftover stocks lost notable value over the past month. Deckers Outdoor (NYSE: DECK) declined from 111.0% to 101.6% of its 28 November 2025 value, while the stock price of Trade Desk (NASDAQ: TTD) continued to fall through its continually lowering floor.

The spaghetti chart tracks the relative movements of 2025's ten Thanksgiving Leftover stocks during the last nine months with respect to their value on the day after 2025's Thanksgiving holiday.

Nine months after Thanksgiving 2025, five of the S&P 500's Thanksgiving Leftover stocks have risen above their 28 November 2025 level, while the other five have dropped below it.

In cased you missed it, our extended discussion of The Trade Desk's woes as the worst of the 2025's Thanksgiving Leftover Stocks is available here. We'll check back in with the Leftover Stocks near the end of September 2026.

Political Calculations' initial estimate of the total value of new home sales in the United States during July 2026 is $28.41 billion. This value is slightly lower than the initial estimate of $28.62 billion we presented in our previous update that covered new home sales data through May 2026.

Since then, the number of new home sales has been trending downward thanks largely to an increase in mortgage rates in recent months, which has made new homes relatively less affordable during this time. The number of new home sales has dropped to its lowest level since the start of the year.

One surprising development however is that the average new home sale prices has also declined in recent months. Builder incentives are making new homes less expensive than existing homes.

As far back as modern records go, newly built homes have almost always cost more than previously owned homes.

It only makes sense: New homes are expected to have far fewer maintenance issues, brand new appliances, and designs suited to contemporary tastes, plus they can be customized to suit the homebuyer's needs.

After all, it is only in very rare circumstances that a used car would cost more than a similar make and model purchased brand new at the dealer's lot.

But in recent months, that trend has been upended to an extent that has never been seen, with the typical new home selling at a sharp discount to existing homes.

In June, the $407,200 median sales price of new homes was about $28,000 less than for existing homes, a 6.5% discount and by far the biggest inversion in at least 25 years.

Last month, the gap narrowed a bit to nearly $19,000, or 4%—still significantly larger than any discount seen before this year. July also marked the fourth straight month of price inversion for new homes, the longest stretch on record.

The following charts present the U.S. new home market capitalization, the number of new home sales, and their average sale prices as measured by their time-shifted, trailing twelve month averages from January 1976 through July 2026.

New home sales trending down:

New home prices also trending down:

We'll update our measure of the relative affordability of new homes sometime in the next week.

References

U.S. Census Bureau. New Residential Sales Historical Data. Houses Sold. [Excel Spreadsheet]. Accessed 25 August 2026. 

U.S. Census Bureau. New Residential Sales Historical Data. Median and Average Sale Price of Houses Sold. [Excel Spreadsheet]. Accessed 25 August 2026. 

Image Credit: An aerial view of a lot of houses photo by Modunite Ltd on Unsplash.