The U.S. new home market continued stumbling along in May 2026.

Political Calculations' initial estimate of the total value of new home sales in the United States during May 2026 is $28.62 billion. This value is slightly higher than the initial estimate of $28.30 billion for April 2026, which has been revised downward to $28.18 billion for this month.

This estimate rose largely because average new home sale prices have been rising, which have offset a falling number of sales in recent months as mortgage rates in the United States increased to near their highest levels in the past year:

The contract rate on a 30-year, fixed-rate mortgage — the most common U.S. home loan — climbed 7 basis points to 6.76% in the week ended July 24, just shy of a one-year high, the Mortgage Bankers Association said on Wednesday. The rate on 15-year, fixed-rate loans climbed 11 basis points to 6.15%, the highest in just over a year.

Meanwhile, rates on adjustable-rate mortgages, which can be a more affordable option in the face of high fixed-rate costs but come with the risk of a higher rate reset later on, also moved higher. The rate on a 5-year ARM edged up to 5.98% last week.

Looking at the big picture for the U.S. new home market, the following charts present the U.S. new home market capitalization, the number of new home sales, and their average sale prices as measured by their time-shifted, trailing twelve month averages from January 1976 through May 2026.

New home sales trending downward:

Rising trend for new home prices:

We'll take a closer look at the impact these factors are having on the relative affordability of new homes being sold in the U.S. in the next week.

References

U.S. Census Bureau. New Residential Sales Historical Data. Houses Sold. [Excel Spreadsheet]. Accessed 24 June 2026. 

U.S. Census Bureau. New Residential Sales Historical Data. Median and Average Sale Price of Houses Sold. [Excel Spreadsheet]. Accessed 24 June 2026. 

Image Credit: Construction worker in hard hat on a building frame photo by Josh Olalde on Unsplash.

There are thirty stocks in the Dow Jones Industrial Average (Index: DJI), the U.S. stock market's oldest running index. Unlike the S&P 500 (Index: SPX), the market capitalization-weighted index that's overtaken it as standard for measuring the performance of the U.S. stock market, the component stocks of the DJI are weighted according to their price.

For example, the stock of Goldman Sachs (NYSE: GS) has the heaviest weight within the index, accounting for 11.72% of its value on 27 July 2026 thanks to its highest-in-the-index share price of $1,041.82.

With a share price of $837.24, Caterpillar (NYSE: CAT) ranks second, making up 9.42% of the index. The third largest component stock of the DJI belongs to United Health (NYSE: UNH), whose share price of $427.54 gives it a 4.8% share of the entire Dow Jones Industrial Average.

The following chart visualizes the relative share of each of the DJI's 30 component stocks within the index:

We wondered how this chart would change if the thirty Dow Jones Industrial component stocks were weighted within the index according to their market capitalization. The next chart shows the results of that exercise, keeping the order and coloring of the component stock shares the same as the price-weighted visualization:

The DJI's top three components of Goldman Sachs, Caterpillar, and United Health go from accounting for a combined 25.94% of the index to just 4.23%. In their place, the top three component stocks of become Apple (NASDAQ: AAPL), Nvidia (NASDAQ: NVDA), and Microsoft (NASDAQ: MSFT), which would account for 49.7% of the entire DJI's valuation.

References

Slickcharts. Dow Jones Industrial Average: Price Weighting of Component Stocks and Market Capitalization. 27 July 2026.

July 2026 saw positive changes overall for the Thanksgiving Leftover portfolio made up of the ten worst-performing stocks in the S&P 500 (Index: SPX) as of Thanksgiving 2025. At least, as compared to how they fared in June 2025.

The equal-weighted weighted version of the portfolio overtook the market cap-weighted version over the past month. Through the close of trading on 27 July 2026, the equal-weighted group of Thanksgiving Leftover stocks rise to 88.5% of their value recorded on 28 November 2025. That compares with the 87.4% valuation of the market-cap weighted version of the ten stock portfolio.

That's a change from most of the preceding seven months that had the market-cap weighted version of the 2025 Thanksgiving Leftover stock portfolio outperforming the equal-weighted version. It's also developed as the S&P 500 index itself has largely moved sideways, rising from 107.4% to 108.2% of its post-2025 Thanksgiving holiday valuation.

The following chart shows the performance of all three sets of stocks, with the two Thanksgiving Leftover stock indices continuing to lag behind the S&P 500 index by a wide margin.

Much of the gain of the equal-weighted version of the Thanksgiving Leftover stock index has come about because the three worst performing individual stocks in the portfolio, Lululemon Athletica (NASDAQ: LULU), Gartner (NYSE: IT), and The Trade Desk (NASDAQ: TTD) stopped falling and even rebounded a bit in the past month.

More significantly for the equal-weighted Leftover stocks, Factset Research Systems (NYSE: FDS) rose 23% over its level a month earlier.

At the same time, three stocks that account for 45% of the makeup of the market-cap version of the Thanksgiving Leftover stock portfolio, Chipotle Mexican Grill (NYSE: CMG), Fiserv (NASDAQ: FISV), and Alexandria Real Estate Equities (NYSE: ARE), saw positive but smaller gains over the preceding month while the Leftover stocks' highest flyers, Molina Healthcare (NYSE: MOH), Deckers Outdoor (NYSE: DECK), and Dow Inc. (NYSE: DOW) were little changed from where they were a month earlier, though they changed quite a bit in between!

The spaghetti chart tracks the relative movements of 2025's ten Thanksgiving Leftover stocks with respect to their value on the day after 2025's Thanksgiving holiday.

Will the equal-weighted continue pulling ahead of the market-cap weighted version of the Thanksgiving Leftover portfolio? Or will the market-cap weighting win out? We'll next see where things stand near the end of August 2026.

The S&P 500 (Index: SPX) fell a little under 0.7% during the trading week ending on Friday, 24 July 2026. The index ended the week at 7,408.70, which is 201.08 points (or 2.6%) below its all time record high of 7,609.78 from 2 June 2026.

The past week didn't see a single catalyst to weigh on stock prices, but rather three of them. Oil prices briefly shot up over $100 per barrel with the Iran war's disruption to oil shipping in the Middle East. The risk of higher inflation prompted the second catalyst of the specter of higher interest rates to rear its ugly head.

But the third catalyst was perhaps the most significant. Outsized capital expenditures by AI tech giants like Alphabet (NASDAQ: GOOGL and GOOG) and speculated for firms like Meta Platforms sent their stock prices sharply lower from where they closed the previous week. That action pulled the S&P 500 lower overall thanks to their outsized shares of the total valuation of all the stocks within the market cap-weighted index.

Overall, the S&P 500's trajectory ticked down to toward the lower end of the redzone forecast range on the latest update of the alternative futures chart.

As we're reaching the end of the redzone forecast range, we find the level of the index is consistent with investors fixing their attention on either the current quarter of 2026-Q3 or the more distant future quarter of 2026-Q4. Investors have reason to focus on each of these quarters thanks to their status as quarters in which the Federal Reserve will most likely hike short term interest rates in the U.S. The CME Group's FedWatch Tool now projects two quarter point rate hikes in the months ahead. The first would occur after the Fed meets on 16 September (2026-Q3) and the second would take place on 9 December (2026-Q4). The FedWatch tool's projections are biased toward potential additional rate hikes in 2027 with the most likely timing in the first half of the year.

If, when, and by how much the Fed might change interest rates however will be affected by the random onset of new information. Here are the market moving headlines from the trading week ending on Friday, 24 July 2026:

Monday, 20 July 2026

• Signs and portents for the U.S. economy:
• US to hit Canada with 50% tariffs on wide range of goods
• New York issues moratorium on data centers
• Data center protests go national as backlash grows
• Oil reverses as Iranian comments interpreted as chance for fresh negotiations
• US pump prices cross $4 again on renewed fighting in the Middle East
• Why oil prices haven't gone crazy despite 5 months of US-Iran war
• Bigger bailout developing in China:
• China’s ‘national team’ buys shares worth $9bn to prop up market
• ECB minions relieved to see oil price surge isn't causing Eurozone wage growth, but still getting excited to hike interest rates:
• ECB survey sees moderating wage demands, selling price growth
• Markets price in two ECB rate hikes by early 2027 on inflation concerns
• Wall Street ends lower as oil prices rise, investors await big tech earnings
• Wall Street indexes fall, with Iran and earnings season in focus
• S&P 500 earnings season starts off with a bang as 88% of names top estimates
• Chipmakers head for big profit gains, but will it be enough?

Tuesday, 21 July 2026

• Signs and portents for the U.S. economy:
• Trump prepares fresh tariff barrage with 10% levies set to expire
• US imposes new 50% tariffs on $20 billion worth of Canadian products
• Oil prices rise to five-week high on US-Iran attacks, Houthi blockade threat
• Asian refiners look to Suez Canal to move Saudi oil amid Houthi shipping threats
• Economists think Fed minions won't hike U.S. interest rates in 2026, but think there's a chance they will:
• Fed to hold rates this year despite high inflation, but economists cite high chances of a hike: Reuters poll
• Bigger trouble developing in China:
• China considers tighter export controls on AI models and chips, FT reports
• China's world-leading renewable megabases rely on coal-heavy transmission, report finds
• China's steel sector looks weaker than it is, reverse for iron ore
• ECB minions clamp down on Eurozone credit:
• Euro zone banks tighten credit access on war fears
• Dow gains nearly 400 points; S&P 500 snaps 3-day losing run as chip stocks rise
• U.S. stocks inch up after investors assess strong earnings, higher oil
• Wall St ends higher on chip stocks recovery; earnings in focus
• S&P 500 is 1.5% from ATH after nearly two months of sideways action

Wednesday, 22 July 2026

• Signs and portents for the U.S. economy:
• OpenAI models went rogue during testing
• AI investment boom puts Big Tech's free cash flow under pressure
• US 30-year mortgage hits 11-month high, MBA says
• Oil climbs over 3% to near six-week high as conflict threatens key oil transit routes
• Trump vows to bomb Iran’s bridges, power plants if it shoots at ships in Hormuz Strait
• BOJ minions fear yen's decline will continue, standing by to hike interest rates to prop up Japan's currency:
• BOJ on alert to price risks that may lead to faster rate hikes, sources say
• Japan imports jump to record high on oil price surge, complicating BOJ policy
• Yen steadies near 40-year low on rate-hike bets, intervention talks
• U.S. Stocks Could Soon Have a Yen Problem
• ECB minions standing by to hike Eurozone interest rates later:
• ECB to pause rate hikes but signal that more may be needed
• Wall Street ends red as U.S. stocks struggle ahead of Tesla, Alphabet results
• Wall Street indexes dip with technology earnings, rising oil in focus

Thursday, 23 July 2026

• Signs and portents for the U.S. economy:
• How the hunt for value sparked a US private-label revolution
• AI will not trigger employment collapse, staffing company Adecco Group says
• Oil prices rise for a fifth day as US-Iran hostilities threaten supply routes
• US oil refineries run at breakneck speeds as wars choke fuel supplies
• Fed minions keeping mum, including the hawkish ones who want to hike interest rates:
• Warsh's no-guidance approach confronts a hawkish world and hawkish Fed colleagues
• BOJ minions / Bigger trouble developing in Japan:
• BOJ to raise rates again by December as weak yen revives inflation risks: Reuters poll
• ECB minions worrying about rising oil prices again, but strangely choose to leave Eurozone interest rates unchanged if they really believe inflationary shock is coming:
• Oil price surge reignites inflation worries ahead of ECB meeting
• ECB Keeps Rates Unchanged (As Expected), Warns 'Full Energy Inflationary Shock Yet To Come'
• ECB minions also thinking about other things:
• ECB considering several options to mitigate losses, sources say
• ECB will discuss raising banks' minimum reserves, Lagarde says
• U.S. stocks end lower as oil reaches $100/bbl; investors assess tech results
• Wall St falls as tech earnings spark AI spending worries and oil hits $100
• Alphabet earnings takeaways: Q2 revenue beats, GOOGL stock sinks on 2026 capex hike
• Google burns through $6bn in cash as AI spending climbs again
• Alphabet's cash burn raises alarm for Big Tech as AI spending climbs

Friday, 24 July 2026

• Signs and portents for the U.S. economy:
• Trump imposes forced labor tariffs, drawing protests from trading partners
• European Commission gives guarded welcome to new Trump tariffs
• Oil retreats from above $100, still set for weekly rise on Middle East escalation
• Oil tankers face attack on multiple fronts as fighting escalates in Red Sea, Hormuz and Black Sea
• US business activity perks up in July, helped by World Cup, but trend may not last, S&P Global says
• Fed minions being told by markets how to set interest rates:
• Fed Chairman Warsh faces cruel summer as bond yields spike
• BOJ minions live up to expectations as bigger trouble develops in Japan:
• BOJ likely to keep inflation warning but expect no big build-up in risks
• Japan June core inflation accelerates, stays below BOJ target
• Yen heads for biggest weekly drop since May despite Tokyo's support pledges
• US warns against excessive yen volatility, calls for BOJ rate hikes
• ECB minions get data indicating no changes in Eurozone inflation outlook:
• ECB survey shows broadly unchanged inflation outlook
• S&P 500 posts weekly loss while defensive sectors outperform
• U.S. stocks see a second week of losses as oil prices retreat from $100 level
• Nasdaq lags on angst over AI spending ahead of earnings reports
• Moody’s says ‘unprecedented’ AI spending threatens credit quality of Amazon, Meta, Alphabet and others

The Atlanta Fed's GDPNow tool's estimate of real GDP growth for the U.S. economy in the current quarter of 2026-Q2 was unchanged at +1.7%, with no updates in the past week.

Image credit: Microsoft Copilot Designer. Prompt: "An editorial cartoon of a Wall Street bear scaring a bull with a stage presentation on 'WHY BULLS SHOULD BE SCARED' with three easels set up that say 'OIL PRICES', 'RATE HIKES' and 'AI CAPEX COSTS'". The tag indicating the image was "AI generated" is something new, but hopefully no surprise to any of our readers who read all our articles down to this bottom line!

Keeping your digital accounts secure is a never ending arms race.

Computing technology increases in capability every year. For hackers with access to the latest, greatest computers and code, it is easier than ever for them to run through tens of millions of combinations of characters to discover your passwords.

What you thought might be a safe and secure password a few years ago may now be vulnerable to being cracked. And if your password can be easily cracked, how safe are your accounts?

Hive Systems has updated their "Time It Takes a Hacker to Brute Force Your Password" infographic for 2026. Here is the table showing how long a competent hacker would take to find passwords made up of various lengths and combinations of characters:

How easy it is for a hacker to crack your password depends upon how long it is and what combinations of numbers, lower case letters, upper case letters, and special characters you use in your password. As you can see in the chart, in 2026, if you're using eight digit numbers as your password, you might as well not even bother having one....