The average mortgage payment on the typical new home sold in the U.S. rose above the upper limit of affordability for the typical American household in May 2026.

The change comes eight months after the affordability of the median new home had finally become affordable for households earning the median household income for the first time since March 2022. A combination of rising mortgage rates and rising new home prices are responsible for the development. Both have increased since bottoming at their most affordable levels in years in March 2026.

Here are the three numbers that define how affordable a new home is for the typical American household:

• Median new home sale price: $424,900
• Median household income: $87,646
• Average 30-year conventional fixed mortgage rate: 6.44%

Median household income also increased during this time, but not by enough to offset the impact of the other two factors. For a household at the exact middle of the U.S. income spectrum, the average mortgage payment for a new home purchased at the national median sale price with zero-percent down consumed 36.6% of the household's monthly income in May 2026.

This value is higher than the upper threshold of affordability defined by the 28/36 rule that mortgage lenders traditionally use to determine whether to extend a mortgage to new home buyers. A monthly mortgage payment that consumes more than 36% of a household's income means that the median new home sold in May 2026 is outside the affordable reach of a household earning the median income, even if it has no other debts.

The following chart shows how May 2026's level of relative affordability for new homes compares with the affordability for every month since January 2000:

Looking forward, the average interest rate for a 30-year conventional fixed rate mortgage increased to 6.49% in June 2026. This increase creates additional headwinds for new home affordability in the United States.

References

U.S. Census Bureau. New Residential Sales Historical Data. Houses Sold. [Excel Spreadsheet]. Accessed 24 July 2026.

U.S. Census Bureau. New Residential Sales Historical Data. Median and Average Sale Price of Houses Sold. [Excel Spreadsheet]. Accessed 24 July 2026.

Freddie Mac. 30-Year Fixed Rate Mortgages Since 1971. [Online Database]. Accessed 1 August 2026. Note: Starting from December 2022, the estimated monthly mortgage rate is taken as the average of weekly 30-year conventional mortgage rates recorded during the calendar month.

Image Credit: Microsoft Bing Image Generator. Prompt: "An editorial cartoon of an American family looking sadly at a new house with a "For Sale" sign in front of it that they cannot afford." We modified the generated image to add text to the label on the "For Sale" sign.

Two months ago, the S&P 500 (Index: SPX) was rising so quickly it raised the prospect the index could see a break down in the relative period of order the index established since the end of 2023.

Instead, after peaking on 2 June 2026, the S&P 500 has reverted toward its established mean trajectory. Through the end of July 2026, the index is hovering right around that 31-month-old central trend curve.

Which is to say the index remains well within its established relative period of order after having regressed toward its mean trend trajectory. Whatever bubble might have been forming within the index has mostly deflated.

The following chart visualizes the relationship between the value of the S&P 500 and its underlying trailing year dividends per share from 29 December 2023 through 31 July 2026:

Previously on Political Calculations

• How Big is the AI Bubble and Is It Really a Bubble?
• The Definition of a Bubble
• The Ultimate Sell Signal
• What Caused the Dot Com Bubble to Begin and What Caused It to End?
• The Black Monday Stock Market Crash Explained
• Not Necessarily Wrong But Useful

Image Credit: Microsoft Copilot Designer. Prompt: "An editorial cartoon of a Wall Street bull and bear looking at a balloon labeled 'AI BUBBLE?' that has deflated".

Motio Research's initial estimate of U.S. median household income for June 2026 is $88,110, a $370 (or 0.4%) decrease from the firm's initial estimate of $88,480 for May 2026.

Here are screenshots of the interactive charts Motio Research provides to visualize trends in the U.S.' median household income. The first chart presents the firm's Household Income Index, which is based on a three-month moving average that sets the period of January 2010 through March 2010 at a value of 100. The second chart presents their monthly median household income estimates in nominal (not adjusted for inflation) terms for the period from January 2010 through June 2026.

Monthly Household Income Index

Median Household Income Estimates

Motio Research offered the following analysis of the month-over-month decline in their survey-based median household income estimate:

The U.S. Real Median Household Income Index fell to 118.9. Nominal median household income also declined, falling 0.3% to $88,110. The real estimates are expressed in June 2026 dollars using Chained CPI-U; the series are seasonally adjusted three-month averages, and the index is set to 100 in March 2010.

Year-over-year change is Motio’s principal measure of household-income direction and momentum. Real household-income growth had strengthened from 2.3% in March to 2.7% in April before easing to 2.6% in May. The full percentage-point decline in June sharply interrupted that stronger trajectory.

Although larger one-month declines in the real-income level occurred in May 2010 and January 2021, both took place during contractionary or pandemic-disrupted phases of the household-income series. June’s combination of a 0.5% decline in the level and a full percentage-point loss of year-over-year momentum represents the largest simultaneous weakening in the two measures recorded during an established expansion phase of the series.

“One month of weakness does not establish a turning point, and we would caution against interpreting it as one,” said Matías Scaglione, Co-Founder and Principal Economist at Motio Research. “June nevertheless warrants attention because both the level and momentum of real household income weakened substantially during an established upswing. Whether this reflects temporary volatility or the beginning of a broader deterioration in household-income conditions is the question the next several releases will help answer.”

Analyst's Notes

Political Calculations produces monthly median household income estimates using an alternate methodology that complements Motio Research's survey-based estimates. In June 2026, Political Calculations' initial estimate of median household income is $87,934. This estimate is $291 (or 0.3%) higher than our initial estimate of $87,643 for May 2026's median household income.

The following chart presents our estimates of U.S. median household income, both adjusted for inflation (blue) and not-adjusted for inflation (red) for each month from January 2000 through May 2026.

Political Calculations' June 2026 estimate is $176 (0.2%) below Motio Research's estimate of $88,110 for the month, which largely closes the gap we've observed between the two sets of estimates since Motio Research's estimates surged upward in July 2025.

References

U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. Table 2.6. Personal Income and Its Disposition, Monthly, Personal Income and Outlays, Not Seasonally Adjusted, Monthly, Middle of Month. Population. [Online Database (via Federal Reserve Economic Data)]. Last Updated: 30 July 2026. Accessed: 30 July 2026.

U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. Table 2.6. Personal Income and Its Disposition, Monthly, Personal Income and Outlays, Not Seasonally Adjusted, Monthly, Middle of Month. Compensation of Employees, Received: Wage and Salary Disbursements. [Online Database (via Federal Reserve Economic Data)]. Last Updated: 30 July 2026. Accessed: 30 July 2026.

Image credit: U.S. Census Bureau. We modified the public domain image to make it more generally applicable beyond reporting the median household income from 2022.

The direction the S&P 500 (Index: SPX) takes is shaping up a lot like a playing a game that has a 50% chance of winning or a 50% chance of losing.

Investors saw that game play out during the past week as several of the Big Tech companies that dominate the index reported their earnings and updated their outlooks. For example, the world's biggest company, Apple (NASDAQ: AAPL) briefly touched a $5 trillion valuation before disappointing investors with its supply chain struggles, sending its shares lower.

But that loss was offset for the index as both Amazon (NASDAQ: AMZN) and Microsoft (NASDAQ: MSFT) were more positive.

By the time the trading week ended on Friday, 31 July 2026, the bulls came out ahead as the index rose almost 1.1% above its previous week's close to reach a value of 7,489.72.

The latest update of the alternative futures chart shows stock prices are consistent with investors focusing their forward looking attention on either the current quarter of 2026-Q3 or the more distant quarter of 2026-Q4.

The dividend futures-based model indicates very little difference in where it projects the level of the S&P 500 would be for investors fixing their attention on either these two future quarters.

As for why these two quarters would be of particular interest to investors, they happen to represent the likely timing of when the Fed will act to change the Federal Funds Rate. The CME Group's FedWatch Tool projects two quarter point rate hikes before the end of 2026. The first would occur after the Fed meets on 16 September (2026-Q3) and the second would take place on 9 December (2026-Q4).

Here are the market-moving headlines of the week that was:

Monday, 27 July 2026

• Signs and portents for the U.S. economy:
• US core capital goods orders rise, shipments post largest gain in 4-1/2 years amid AI investment boom
• Oil prices settle at lowest in over a week, as US pauses attacks on Iran
• Oil prices slide, Brent crude below $90 as pause to U.S.-Iran hostilities appears to hold
• Bigger trouble, stimulus developing in China:
• China's industrial profit growth moderates as exports cushion uneven recovery
• China begins making homegrown DUV chipmaking tools, The Information reports
• Chipmaker CXMT vaults to top of China's valuation with 466% surge in Shanghai debut
• China accuses US of 'AI hegemonism', threatens countermeasures over potential probes
• China opposes US 'forced labour' tariffs, calls for them to be cancelled
• BOJ minions getting excited to hike Japan's interest rates some more:
• Bank of Japan to signal more rate hikes as price pressures build
• ECB minions say interest rate hikes will continue until Eurozone morale improves:
• ECB's Kazimir: September rate hike likely needed even if outlook improves
• ECB facing mid-sized inflation shock, will get to 2% in year or so, Lane says
• Wall Street closed mixed as eyes remained focused on U.S.-Iran relations
• Wall Street ends mixed as investors focus on tech earnings

Tuesday, 28 July 2026

• Signs and portents for the U.S. economy:
• US goods trade deficit shrinks, is still expected to weigh on Q2 GDP growth
• Oil prices fall 5% to two-week low after several days without US-Iran strikes
• Fed minions not expected to hike U.S. interest rates this week:
• Bar to Fed rate hike this week remains high even as markets see a chance
• Uneven economic growth developing in China:
• High-tech manufacturing hubs pull ahead in China's uneven growth
• Bigger trouble developing everywhere:
• Persistently high inflation to nag global economy, say economists: Reuters poll
• S&P 500 ends higher as investors await tech earnings
• Wall Street ended mixed as global tech softness weighs and earnings take center stage
• Apple briefly tops $5 trillion market value for first time

Wednesday, 29 July 2026

• Signs and portents for the U.S. economy:
• US mortgage rates climb again in latest week, many at year high
• Oil jumps 7% on escalating Middle East airstrikes
• Brent oil jumps back above $90 after Trump threatens to hit Iran hard
• OpenAI's rogue agent compromised a customer at a second tech firm
• Fed minions follow through on expectations with no rate hike, three minions dissented:
• Fed leaves rates unchanged; three policymakers dissent in favor of a hike
• VIEW Fed holds rates steady as three policymakers dissent for a hike
• No Rate-Change Sparks 3 Dissents As Warsh Fed Delivers Biggest 'Non-Cut' Surprise In Decades
• Fed meeting recap: Warsh says Fed won’t hesitate to stop inflation, but bond market has doubts
• Bigger stimulus developing in China:
• China sets overnight reverse repo rate steady at 1.25%, sources say
• Wall Street ends lower as FOMC holds interest rates steady
• Wall Street closes down sharply after Fed holds rates unchanged
• Dow drops 1,100 points for worst day since April 2025 on fear the Fed is falling behind on inflation
• The US10Y is above 75% of its three-year range – this is what it means for the S&P 500

Thursday, 30 July 2026

• Signs and portents for the U.S. economy:
• US economic growth slows but domestic demand robust
• Oil edges down in choppy trading amid Oman-Iran talks, US-Iran tensions
• Fed minions see long-term interest rates rise after sending "muddled" message:
• Fed's 'hawkish hold' muddies path for stocks and bonds
• US 30-year yield hits 2007 high, stocks attempt post-earnings recovery
• Bigger trouble, smaller stimulus developing in China:
• China's factory activity expected to have stalled in July: Reuters poll
• China generates less than half of its electricity from coal for the first time
• China's leaders pledge to support economy without big new stimulus plans
• BOJ minions suspected of taking action to prop up Japan's currency:
• Yen surges, analysts suspect official Japanese intervention
• Faster growth, bigger inflation developing in Eurozone:
• Euro zone economy grows faster than expected on AI spending, confident consumers
• German inflation accelerates to 2.8% in July
• Wall Street closed higher as chips rallied and latest GDP and inflation figures landed
• Wall Street ends sharply higher, lifted by soaring Microsoft
• Microsoft sets record with near $450 billion single-day gain in market value

Friday, 31 July 2026

• Signs and portents for the U.S. economy:
• Big Tech AI spending spree tops $1tn
• Anthropic's Claude AI hacked three companies during tests
• What we know about the rogue AI-agent security breaches
• Oil falls more than $1 on greater flows despite US-Iran war
• US Treasury yield curve 'twist' reflects view Fed may not hike again
• Fed minions make case for September rate hike, some argue inflation is lowest it's been in years, chief Fed minion thinking about changing the schedule:
• Fed dissenters sketch the case for a rate hike
• As Warsh’s Fed faces pressure to act on inflation, these indicators show it’s at its lowest in years
• Warsh raised changing frequency of Fed policy meetings, NYT reports
• Bigger trouble, stimulus developing in China:
• China's factory activity shrinks in July as demand falters, fuelling slowdown concerns
• China approves eight new nuclear power units
• BOJ minions pass on hiking Japan's interest rates, but hint they'll resume hiking them later with inflation rising; also busy with propping up Japan's currency:
• Yen remains under pressure after BOJ kept rates unchanged
• Annual core inflation in Japan's capital accelerates in July
• BOJ nods to chance of early rate hike as Tokyo props up yen
• Japan intervenes to prop up yen ahead of BOJ policy decision, source says
• Japan may have sold up to $59 billion in yen-buying intervention
• History of Japan's intervention in currency markets
• US Treasury informed banks that it may intervene in Japan's yen, source says
• ECB minions see higher inflation in Eurozone:
• Euro zone inflation ticks up in July, bolstering rate hike case
• Eurozone inflation rises to 2.9% in July
• S&P 500 posts weekly gain as consumer discretionary shines
• Wall Street ends higher as Amazon soothes AI jitters
• Amazon lifts investment plans after strong cloud sales; shares jump
• Apple disappoints with forecast dogged by supply chain struggles
• Apple set to lose nearly $500 billion in value after weak forecast

The BEA's first estimate of annualized real GDP growth during 2026-Q2 is 1.5%, just a bit below the Atlanta Fed's GDPNow tool's final estimate of +1.7% for the quarter. Meanwhile, GDPNow tool's first estimate of real GDP growth for the U.S. economy in the now current quarter of 2026-Q3 is +5.0%.

Image credit: Microsoft Copilot Designer. Prompt: "An editorial cartoon showing a Wall Street bull and bear spinning a Price Is Right style Big Wheel labeled 'WHICH WAY WILL STOCKS GO?’ with values 'UP' and 'DOWN'".

Colossal Biosciences is a biotechnology company that's taken on the challenge of reviving extinct species as a core part of its mission. Earlier this year, they announced success at breeding chickens using their artificial egg technology, which they see as key to "de-extincting" large avian species like New Zealand's moa.

They publicized the achievement in a video that gives strong Jurassic Park vibes:

When they make the next Jurassic Park/World sequel, we hope they work the line "hexagons are the bestagons" into the script.

As for Colossal Biosciences, it's a real company that's reportedly worth around $10 billion that's seeking to raise money to further the technologies they're developing.