The S&P 500 (Index: SPX) suffered one of its worst weeks in years. All of the damage it absorbed is contained within just two days: Thursday, 3 April 2025 and Friday, 4 April 2025.

Up until these days, the index had bounced within one percent of where it closed the preceding week. On Wednesday, 2 April 2025, the index was even a few points higher than that level.

Then U.S. President Donald Trump announced his long-awaited global tariffs package. The United States would begin imposing higher tariffs on virtually every nation on Earth starting from Thursday, 3 April 2025.

Investors reacted to the news by sending the S&P 500 down a little over 4.8%. Then Friday, 3 April 2025 came and two new events combined to sent stock prices even lower. First, China's government declared it would immediately retaliate by imposing additional tariffs on U.S. goods.

Second, U.S. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell committed what may come to be remembered as a consequential monetary policy error. Powell stated the Fed would "wait for greater clarity before considering any adjustments to our policy stance" after expressing concern the new tariffs might bring higher inflation, perhaps unaware of the many prices that began plunging with the news of the global tariffs.

This one-two punch sent stock prices down nearly a full 6.0% on the day. The S&P 500 ended the week at 5,074.08, about 10.5% below where it closed out the previous week.

Here are two treemap charts from data visualization site Finviz, which reveal the carnage among the component stocks that make up the S&P 500 index on these two days:

3 April 2025: S&P 500 down 4.8%:

4 April 2025: S&P 500 down 6.0%:

As a market capitalization-weighted index, the negative changes in the biggest stocks, indicated by the size of the squares in the treemaps, did the most to drive the overall index lower. Still, as the charts make clear, nearly every stock within the index was knocked lower during these days.

The Bigger Picture

The dividend futures-based model we use to forecast the potential futures for the S&P 500 is uniquely well-positioned to unpack the events that led to the stock market's plunge. Over the last few weeks, we identified a potential change in market regime, tested two simple hypotheses (a "no regime change" hypothesis and a "yes regime change" hypothesis), then determined the behavior of stock prices was much more consistent with the market regime change hypothesis. But we weren't "quite 100% to a full determination" of the market change hypothesis last week.

We are now and we've identified the triggering events behind it. The change in market regime is directly associated with China's Hangzhou DeepSeek Artificial Intelligence Basic Technology Research company's statement on Friday, 21 February 2025 that the firm would release an open source version of their advanced AI system in the following week. They followed through on that pledge on Monday, 24 February 2025, which we identified as the first effective day of the change in market regime.

This event directly caused the deflation of the AI-bubble in the U.S. stock market over the next several weeks as the effective new competition reduced expectations for high profits by firms making big AI technology-related investments in the U.S. Coming just after the S&P 500 peaked at an all-time high of 6,144.15 on Wednesday, 19 February 2025, the deflation of the AI bubble shrank the index' total market cap by 9.2% through Friday, 28 March 2025.

During this period, stock prices behaved consistently with the observation investors were mainly focused on the now current quarter of 2025-Q2 in setting stock prices. But as you'll see in this special version of the alternative futures chart, which animates the action during the past week, things got extra interesting.

By extra interesting, we're referring to two Lévy flight events. The first event occurred as investors shifted their forward-looking attention from 2025-Q2 toward the more distant future quarter of 2025-Q4 between Friday, 28 March 2025 and Wednesday, 2 April 2025. This shift coincides with an increase in the probability the Federal Reserve's Open Market Committee would cut the Federal Funds rate at its December 2025 meeting from about 50% to 64%.

The Thursday, 3 April 2025 announcement of the Trump administration's global tariffs plan refocused investors on 2025-Q2 in a second Lévy flight event because their implementation would almost certainly require the Fed to resume cutting interest rates sooner rather than later. The S&P 500 closed the day at 5,396.52, slightly above the middle of the range the dividend futures-based model projects for investors focusing on 2025-Q2. That relative position suggests the market had largely priced in the effects of the U.S. global tariffs. It's also well within the range for where we would have expected to find the S&P 500 had investors remained solely focused on 2025-Q2 throughout this period.

The market's action on Friday, 4 April 2025 is more concerning because it suggests things happened that investors did not expect. The dividend futures-based model would put the level of the S&P 500 within about three percent of 5,274.70, so having the market close 3.8% below that is a significant deviation from the model's projection. Assuming that's a short term noise event that will be soon be followed up with a course correction by the Fed, we think the S&P 500 still has potentially another 5-7% to fall. If the Fed doesn't correct its course for rate cuts, that outlook may be optimistic.

Although it's been playing in the background for market-moving news for several weeks, the timeline of significant tariff-related news does not contain any events either capable of generating the observed change in market regime or coinciding with it. At least, up until Thursday, 3 April 2025. The question we have going forward is whether the major market-moving events of this past week represent a short term noise event or an additional change in market regime.

No matter what, only the random onset of new information will tell us which of these scenarios might apply. Speaking of which, here are the market moving headlines from the most interesting week we've seen for the stock market in quite a while:

Monday, 31 March 2025

• Signs and portents for the U.S. economy:
• Oil prices climb 2% to five-week high on Russia, Iran supply worries
• US oil production fell to 11-month low in January, data shows
• Trump auto tariffs threaten new supply-price shock
• Trump says reciprocal tariffs will target all countries
• Fed minions want to wait before cutting U.S. interest rates again:
• Fed officials cautious on rates amid tariff-related inflation risks
• Bigger trouble, stimulus developing in China:
• China's manufacturing hits 12-month high, driven by strong orders
• BOJ minions shaking up their balance sheet now that Japan's economy isn't in deflation
• BOJ to cut buying of super-long bonds for first time in taper plan
• ECB minions say Eurozone must take control of its future, call for caution in cutting interest rates:
• Trump's tariffs mean Europe must take control of its future, says ECB's Lagarde
• ECB's Panetta: U.S. trade policy calls for ECB caution in cutting rates
• Wall Street rallied to end higher after earlier losses pushed the S&P 500 to a 6-month low
• S&P 500, Dow finish higher at the end of March madness
• Wall Street closes out bruising quarter as outlook remains murky
• Gold sprints to record above $3,100/oz, set for best quarter since 1986

Tuesday, 1 April 2025

• Signs and portents for the U.S. economy:
• Oil eases off five-week highs as traders weigh impact of imminent Trump tariffs
• OPEC+ members to meet Thursday, likely to stick to planned output hikes, sources say
• US first-quarter auto sales get a lift from looming Trump tariffs
• Trump administration lists hundreds of barriers to US exports
• Fed minions looking at the walls of the prison they made for themselves:
• Weaker jobs signal, stronger prices highlight potential Fed dilemma
• BOJ minions get bad news on Japan's factory output:
• Japan's factory activity declines pick up, PMI shows
• S&P rises, Dow ends down in choppy Q2 start before Trump's 'Liberation Day' tariffs plan
• S&P, Nasdaq end higher as Wall Street gyrates in Trump-tariffs limbo

Wednesday, 2 April 2025

• Signs and portents for the U.S. economy:
• US factory orders rise solidly in February
• Oil prices fall into negative territory as Trump announces new tariffs
• US crude inventories rise as imports jump ahead of new tariffs, EIA says
• US first-quarter auto sales get a lift from looming Trump tariffs
• Fed minions say hard economic data looks good and that tariffs will spur them to print more money to make inflation higher:
• Fed's Goolsbee: Hard data shows economy is solid, but there is fear around tariffs
• Fed's Kugler says tariffs could touch off more prolonged inflation
• Fed's Kugler says inflation progress may have stalled, backs steady rate policy
• Bigger trouble, stimulus developing in China:
• Trump signs order ending duty-free treatment for cheap shipments from China
• China limits companies from US investments, Bloomberg News reports
• ECB minions say tariffs won't cause Eurozone inflation to rise:
• ECB's Holzmann says potential trade war may require unconventional monetary policies
• Trade fragmentation to curb global growth, raise inflation, ECB's Schnabel says
• Trump tariffs won't derail fall in European inflation, ECB's Villeroy says
• Wall Street advances ahead of Trump's tariff plan unveiling
• Gold prices extend rise after Trump unveils tariff plans

Thursday, 3 April 2025

• Signs and portents for the U.S. economy:
• Trump announces tariffs
• The full list of U.S. tariff rates and the countries targeted
• US tariff rate rockets to 22%, highest since 1910, Fitch economist says
• Oil imports exempted from Trump’s sweeping tariffs
• Trump tariffs set stage for wave of profit warnings
• Crude oil loses most since July 2022 as tariffs, OPEC output hike make 'perfect bearish cocktail'
• OPEC+ speeds up oil output hikes, oil drops
• Fed minions still expected to cut rates by quarter point in June 2025, pressure builds for earlier action, but Fed minions say they're not prepared:
• Traders boost bets on June start to Fed rate cuts as Trump puts on new tariffs
• Fed rate-cut odds for May jump as tariffs fuel recession worries
• Fed's Cook says time for patience on policy amid inflation risks
• Fed's Jefferson says no hurry to adjust rates, need time to assess impact of tariffs
• Fed's Jefferson: still substantial uncertainty on trade policy, need time to assess
• Bigger trouble, stimulus developing in China:
• Trump's global tariffs hurt China with 'all-round blockade'
• JapanGov minions say they'll prop up Japan businesses hurt by U.S. tariffs:
• Japan 'disappointed' in Trump tariffs, will support businesses
• ECB minions really worried about U.S. tariffs:
• Tariff fears were centre stage at ECB's March meeting, accounts show
• Nasdaq ends down 6%, S&P logs worst day since 2020 as Trump tariffs flare trade-war fears
• Gold scales record peak as Trump tariffs fuel safe-haven scramble

Friday, 4 April 2025

• Signs and portents for the U.S. economy:
• China strikes back at Trump with own tariffs, export curbs
• Trump's trade war timeline 2.0: An up-to-date guide
• Employers added 228,000 new jobs in March, blowing past economists' forecasts
• Chief Fed minion to sit on hands for now, thinks tariffs will cause higher inflation, slower growth:
• Markets extend plunge after Powell says Fed to wait and see on tariffs impact
• Fed's Powell says larger-than-expected tariffs likely to boost inflation, slow growth
• Oil dives 7% to lowest in over 3 years on China's tariffs
• Cocoa, coffee, sugar prices slide as markets remain rattled by tariffs
• Soybean futures sink after China slaps 34% tariff on U.S. goods
• Gold Prices Fall More than 2%
• Fed seen waiting until June to start rate cuts, after big job gains last month
• Fed minions hear their alarm and get message to cut rates sooner:
• One of the Fed's top recession alarms sends 2008-style signal
• Trump says 'perfect time' for Fed to cut interest rates
• Fed minions starting to think stablecoins might be the future for money
• Fed's Waller says stablecoins bring benefits to US payments system
• BOJ minions thinking that Japan's economy might get hit by U.S. tariffs:
• BOJ's Ueda warns of hit to Japan economy from Trump tariffs
• Japanese bank shares hammered as US tariffs spur fears about country's fragile recovery
• Japan could lose $17 billion in car exports due to US tariffs, says UN trade agency
• S&P ends down 6%, Nasdaq in bear-market territory as Trump tariffs spurs growth scare
• S&P 500 loses $5 trillion in two days in Trump tariff selloff
• Chip stocks continue free fall as tariff concerns mount; Nasdaq enters bear territory
• US Treasury chief Bessent: stock market drop a ‘Mag 7’ problem, not a Maga one

The CME Group's FedWatch Tool continues to project the Fed will hold off on cutting the Federal Funds Rate until the conclusion of its 18 June (2025-Q2) meeting, at which time it will reduce this interest rate by 0.25%. The FedWatch Tool however now projects the Fed will continue cutting rates 0.25% two more times at six-week intervals through its 17 September (2025-Q3) meeting, before slowing to cut rates by that amount at 12-week intervals into early 2026. Meanwhile, the probability the Fed will act by 7 May (2025-Q2) to resume cutting rates again increased to 1-in-3, where that heightened possibility will likely keep investors focused on 2025-Q2 in the near term.

The raw Atlanta Fed's GDPNow tool's projection of what real GDP growth will be in 2025-Q1 dropped to 2.8% from its -1.8% estimate a week earlier. However, the GDPNow tool's alternate model forecast, which corrects for the unusual surge in gold imports during the quarter that's badly skewing the raw projection, declined from an estimate of -0.5% growth to -0.8% growth. Which is to say it's predicting the U.S. economy will shrink during the current quarter, but not as bad as the raw reading indicates.

Image credit: Microsoft Copilot Designer. Prompt: "An editorial cartoon of a frightened Wall Street bull and a very excited Wall Street bear reacting to a news ticker that says 'TARIFF WAR'".

Over the years, the Inventions in Everything team has featured many unusual innovations, but few that involve celebrity inventors. Even then, the "big names" we've featured aren't necessarily names many would associate with inventions. Names like Abraham Lincoln, Michael Jackson, and Charlie Sheen. All of whom became famous for their work in other fields.

The co-inventor of the innovation we're featuring today is also much better known for their work in other fields. But unlike the other celebrity inventors we've featured, they have been awarded patents for more than one invention. Those inventions include U.S. Patent 5,515,203 for an educational lens, a specially shaped plastic pouch that can be filled with water to be used like a magnifying glass, U.S. Patents 6,895,694 and 7,254,904 for improved toe shoes to be worn by ballet dancers, and finally, U.S. Patent 7,771,294 for a training device to teach athletes good form for throwing balls.

The inventor's name is William S. Nye, but the following video introduces him how you will almost certainly better know him:

Bill Nye's patented inventions reveal his interest in both education and physical activity, which overlaps today's featured innovation. Here's the backstory for this non-patented invention, which he helped create along with baseball instructor Steve Goucher, who he teamed up with to invent the throwing technique training device awarded U.S. Patent 7,771,294:

“Science Guy” Bill Nye, a well-documented M’s fan, was training for a Mariner Fantasy Camp when he observed one of his trainers’ ad hoc inventions, a bat with a piece of PVC pipe attached to the end for scooping up baseballs to hit during fielding practice. Steve Goucher, Nye’s trainer at the time and a Seattle baseball instructor for 15 years, explained that Nye took one look at it and started seeing ways to make it better.

“He took out his pocketknife on the spot, and started to cut grooves into it,” Goucher says. Nye, a former Boeing engineer who already holds patents for nifty inventions like a water-filled magnifying glass and modified ballet slippers, decided that a baseball grabber might be marketable and partnered with Goucher to develop a product around the idea.

Goucher, who operates baseballjazz.com, had grown tired of stooping all the time to pick up balls to hit to his players. His sore back convinced him to do something about it. So he visited McLendon Hardware in White Center for a piece of PVC pipe, which he attached to the end of his bat. It turned out to be reasonably effective at snatching up baseballs for hitting practice, but it wasn’t until Goucher met Nye that they had the idea to market it to the masses. The two shopped for manufacturers and settled on a rubber version of the grabber, produced by Auburn-based GlobalTech Plastics. They call it the Fango, after the colloquial fungo, a lightweight bat used by coaches for hitting practice.

We tried to find where to buy a "Fango", as Goucher and Nye originally named their innovation, but came up empty. Goucher also marketed the product as a "Quick Pick Fungo Bat", which was sold through Dove Tail Bats but who no longer sells them.

We did however find the invention was also marketed as "The Skipper Stick", which is also no longer sold, but still has an active link to the product. Here are photos of the product:

Here's the marketing pitch for the product:

Are you a parent or a coach that likes to help your kids by hitting them fly balls with a fungo? Does the constant bending over to pick up balls begin to hurt your back over time? Introducing the new revolution in training tools, The Skipper Stick! This slick fungo was designed with the help of Bill Nye "The Science Guy"! Together with D-BAT they developed this revolutionary new design to alleviate the stress put on the backs of parents and coaches by repetitive bending over. It's a great time saver too! For people that aren't familiar with the benefits of fungos, here is a brief overview. Fungos are specifically designed for coaches to easily hit ground balls and fly balls for infield or outfield practice. Coaches know that hitting ground balls and fly balls to their team can be tiring. The unique shape of fungo bats makes them light weight and extremely easy to swing without wearing your arms out. The fungo bat will make it feel like you are swinging a bat that is a fraction of the weight of a normal bat and will give you extra distance even when you swing easy. The end weight design helps build momentum so that it requires less effort to swing it hard enough to hit the ball to any part of the field. Fungos have become a favorite among coaches because of their lightweight, durability and ease of use.

Whether called the Skipper Stick, a Fango, or a Quick Pick Fungo Bat, Goucher and Nye's innovation of a baseball bat that can pick up baseballs off the ground is an example of an invention for a very niche market, one that likely was too thin to sustain sales for more than a short period of time, even though some of the customers were major league baseball teams.

Steve Goucher and Bill Nye stand in good company in that outcome. Neither Abraham Lincoln's patented invention nor Charlie Sheen's lip balm dispenser never made it to the marketplace, so they're already ahead of the pack. We think only Michael Jackson's special shoes for performing the gravity-defying "lean" maneuver may be the only celebrity invention that's still in use, although that seems to be limited to tribute performances of Smooth Criminal.

Inventions in Everything: The Archives

Ready to sample more of the most creative designs and patents the Inventions in Everything team has explored? Our archives celebrate inventions ranging from the whimsical to the inspired in reverse chronological order!

• Inventions in Everything: A Bat for Picking Up Baseballs
• Outside the Box Thinking: Micro Geiger Counter
• Outside the Box Thinking: The Tale of the Tape
• Outside the Box Thinking: A Compact Air Blower
• Outside the Box Thinking: Fully Controllable Xmas Tree Lights
• Inventions in Everything Beating Plowshares into Artillery
• Prediction Markets and the 2024 U.S. Elections
• Inventions in Everything: The Rowing Bicycle
• Outside the Box Thinking: The Ghost Chair
• Inventions in Everything: Glass-Encased Corpses
• Outside the Box Thinking: Navigating by Quantum Dead Reckoning
• Outside the Box Thinking: Anti-Fly Fans
• Inventions in Everything: The Urinal Headrest
• Inventions in Everything: The Greenhouse Helmet
• Inventions in Everything: A Corking Good Life Jacket
• Inventions in Everything: The Table You Wear
• Outside the Box Thinking: Horizontal Wind Turbines
• Inventions in Everything: A New and Useful Bandalore
• Outside the Box Thinking: The Flying Orb
• Inventions in Everything: Toilets for Dogs
• Outside the Box Thinking: Flying Robotic Firehoses
• Inventions in Everything: The Oreometer
• Outside the Box Thinking: Flying Umbrella Drones
• Inventions in Everything: A Patented Pre-Wright Brothers Flying Machine
• Inventions in Everything: A Better Lip-Balm Dispenser
• Outside the Box Thinking: Folding Coat Hangers
• Inventions in Everything: The Turkey Slapper
• Inventions in Everything: Belling the Rat
• Outside the Box Thinking: Solving an Inside the Box Problem
• Inventions in Everything: Life Support for Severed Heads
• Outside the Box Thinking: The Future of Automotive Manufacturing
• Inventions in Everything: The Levitationarium
• Outside the Box Thinking: The Lowest Lowrider
• Inventions in Everything: Water Talkies
• Inventions in Everything: Substance Dispensing Headgear
• Inventions in Everything: The Bug Zapping Tablecloth
• Inventions in Everything: Going to the Mat
• Inventions in Everything: The Snake Walker
• AI and the Twilight Saga
• Outside the Box Thinking: Fire Extinguishers - Part II
• Inventions in Everything: The Silliest Illustration Ever in a U.S. Patent?
• Outside the Box Thinking: Fire Extinguishers - Part I
• Inventions in Everything: The Stamp Licking Tongue Depressor
• Whales, Tails and How Far to Trust AI
• Inventions in Everything: The Snowball Shotgun
• Inventions in Everything: Santa's Ski Resort Holiday Ornament
• Solving Crimes with Turkey DNA Evidence
• Invention in Everything: The Truly Boneless Thanksgiving Turkey
• Inventions in Everything: The Most Rakish Trousers Ever Conceived
• Inventions in Everything: Tale of the Taco Tape
• A Tour of Art History (with Artificial Intelligence and Corgis!)
• Invention in Everything: Lighter-Than-Air Furniture
• Inventions in Everything: Mirrors for Reckless Fish
• Inventions in Everything: The Motorized Ice Cream Cone
• Inventions in Everything: The Imaginary Jump Rope
• Inventions in Everything: A Knockout Solution for Unruly Airline Passengers
• Inventions in Everything: A Pat on the Back
• Inventions in Everything: Counting Your Eggs Before They're Hatched
• Abraham Lincoln, Patented Inventor
• Inventions in Everything: A Five-in-One Kitchen Multitasker
• Inventions in Everything: The Bicycle Sleigh
• Inventions in Everything: The Santa Claus Detector
• Inventions in Everything: Sled Pants
• Inventions in Everything: Pure Nightmare Fuel
• Inventions in Everything: Carvable Artificial Pumpkin
• Inventions in Everything: Artificial Intelligence-Generated Patents
• Inventions in Everything: How to Comfortably Carry $1 Million in U.S. Banknotes
• Inventions in Everything: Lawnmowing Trikes for Tykes
• Inventions in Everything: A Third Eye for Smartphone Zombies
• Inventions in Everything: The Beerbrella
• Inventions in Everything: George Dempster's Innovation
• Inventions in Everything: Motorcyclist Airbag Suit
• Inventions in Everything: Patented Improvements in Cat Toys
• Inventions in Everything: Drinking on the Go for the Environmentally Conscious
• Inventions in Everything: The Hoverbrella
• Inventions in Everything: Inflatable Concrete Containers
• Inventions in Everything: Better 2D Maps of a 3D World
• Inventions in Everything: The Lost Patent of a Bold Man of Color
• Inventions in Everything: Bulletproof Underwear
• Inventions in Everything: A Blazing Trumpet Performance
• Inventions in Everything: Slanty Toilets
• Inventions in Everything: The COVID Candy Chute
• Inventions in Everything: Tomatoes on the Run
• Inventions in Everything: Serving Coffee By Drone
• Inventions in Everything: HM Flying Saucer
• Inventions in Everything: Airbags for Mobile Phones
• "Similar to Fireworks, But a Lot Cooler"
• Inventions in Everything: Dinosaur Jaw Pliers
• Inventions in Everything: Oddly Shaped Objects That Roll Smoothly
• Inventions in Everything: Has the Time of the Isolator Arrived?
• Beauty Within An Eight Millimeter Square
• Inventions in Everything: Opening Doors in a Virus Filled World
• Inventions in Everything: PAPR Made With Truck Parts
• Inventions in Everything: Coffee Cups for Astronauts
• Inventions in Everything: Mechanical Trees
• Inventions in Everything: Space Age Baby Delivery
• Rediscovering Nature: A Biomimetic Clock
• Chairs to Haunt Your Dreams This Hallow's Eve
• Ten Million Inventions In Everything!
• Inventions in Everything: Shoes for Defying the Laws of Physics
• Inventions in Everything: Treadmills Inside Your Shoes
• Inventions in Everything: Makeup Applicator for Cat Eyes
• Inventions in Everything: Optical Illusions to Enhance Safety
• Inventions in Everything: The Future of Ironing
• Inventions in Everything: The Sock Slider
• Inventions in Everything: A Cold, Refreshing, CRISPR Beer
• Inventions in Everything: World's Brightest Flashlight and Glow-in-the-Dark Paint
• Inventions in Everything: On Track for Ten Million Patents!
• Happy Holographic Halloween!
• Elevators that Go Up, Down, Left and Right....
• Inventions in Everything: Ice Cream Pint Lock
• Slow Dance
• Inventions in Everything: Training Device for Beer Pong
• Inventions in Everything: The Flask from the Future
• Inventions in Everything: The Music Playing Bag of Nacho Cheese Flavored Tortilla Chips
• Inventions in Everything: Floating Beer Pong Table
• Inventions in Everything: The Tree Transplanter
• Inventions in Everything: Stopping the Refrig-a-raider
• Inventions in Everything: Popping the Top on National Beer Day
• Inventions in Everything: Fishing for Boats
• Inventions in Everything: Suction Tube for Reverse Axial Withdrawal
• Inventions in Everything: The Unwelcome Mat
• Hubcaps to Replace Snow Chains
• Young AIs in Love
• Inventions in Everything: Rolling on the Vinyl Tracks
• Inventions in Everything: Drilling Square Holes
• The Singing Stones
• Inventions in Everything: The Future of Furniture
• Inventions in Everything: The WiFi Wig
• Inventions in Everything: Keeping Dog Time
• Drying Clothes With Ultrasound
• The Future of Fireworks
• Harvesting Water from the Air
• Inventions in Everything: Automated Window Blinds
• Inventions in Everything: Flying Snoopy!
• Inventions in Everything: Texting Your Dog a Treat
• Houseplants from Avatar
• The Kitchen Unitaskers You Cannot Live Without
• Inventions in Everything: The Baby Cage
• Self-Carving Pumpkins
• Inventions in Everything: The Alarm Clock of Damocles
• Death to Mosquitoes!
• Reinventing the Axe
• Automated Zen
• The Ultimate Swiss Army Knife You Can Buy Today
• Inventions in Everything: The Toilet Snorkel
• There Is No Great Snowplow Stagnation
• The Ultimate in Rust Proofing
• Billionaire Drinks Sewage: Video
• Inventions in Everything: Antiterrorism Barriers
• Wrapping Your Bike Around a Tree... On Purpose
• Inventions in Everything: Geothermal Beer Coolers
• Inventing a Better Snowshoe
• Inventions in Everything: The Salmon Cannon
• Powdered Wine: Just Add Water!
• Fail: The Newest Innovation in Ice Cream
• Unlimited Virtual Legos
• Inventions in Everything: The Ultimate Turkey Blind
• Inventions in Everything: Turning Cans Into Sippy Cups
• Inventions in Everything: Anatomical Lego Figures
• It's Not What You Think....
• Inventions in Everything: Soup Bowl Attraction
• Inventions in Everything: Making Life More Difficult
• Inventions in Everything: The Oreo Separator Machine
• Air Shark!
• Markets in Everything: Stormtrooper Motorcycle Suit
• The Bike That Rides You
• One Inventor's Stick-to-itiveness
• High Five!
• Inventions for Everything
• The Best Mousetrap Ever
• An Invention for the True Wine Connoisseur
• Three of Ten Things You Don't Need on St. Patrick's Day
• The Future Just Got a Lot Cooler Than It Used to Be
• The Worst Piece of Design Ever Done
• The Magic Marker of the Future
• Coming Soon, to a Gym Near You!

The cost of owning the typical new home sold in the United States remained fully out of the affordable reach of the median income-earning household for the 35th consecutive month in February 2025.

However, relative affordability of the monthly mortgage payment for the median priced new home sold during the month improved slightly as both mortgage rates and the median new home price declined while median household income increased. Altogether, we estimate the monthly mortgage payment would consume 39.3% of the monthly income of the typical U.S. household in February 2025.

While that's a decline from January's initial estimate of 42.9%, because it exceeds 36% of the median household's pre-tax income, the upper threshold of household income that mortgage lenders use to determine whether they will lend to a household that has no other debt, we find newly built homes continue to be unaffordable.

The latest update of our chart tracks the changing relative affordability of the typical new home sold in the U.S. is for the typical American household with respect to the mortgage lending industry's key affordability thresholds from January 2000 through February 2025.

This affordability factor is based on February 2025's initial median new home sale price of $414,500, an estimated median household income of $82,886, and an average 30-year conventional mortgage interest rate of 6.84%.

There is a real potential for improvement in affordability because the average mortgage rate for March 2025 is 6.65%. Whether that potential improvement is realized will hinge on what happens with new home sale prices, for which we won't have data until near the end of April 2025.

About the New Home Affordability Crisis

The affordability crisis for new homes has its origin in the high inflation that was unleashed by the Biden-Harris administration's policies in March 2021. Although it rose slowly at first, the cost of monthly mortgage payment began to skyrocket after December 2021. As a percentage of median household income, the monthly mortgage payment for a new home climbed above the key 36% threshold of relative affordability in April 2022. The relative affordability of new homes has remained above this level for 35 consecutive months.

References

U.S. Census Bureau. New Residential Sales Historical Data. Houses Sold. [Excel Spreadsheet]. Accessed 26 March 2025. 

U.S. Census Bureau. New Residential Sales Historical Data. Median and Average Sale Price of Houses Sold. [Excel Spreadsheet]. Accessed 26 March 2025. 

Freddie Mac. 30-Year Fixed Rate Mortgages Since 1971. [Online Database]. Accessed 29 March 2025. Note: Starting from December 2022, the estimated monthly mortgage rate is taken as the average of weekly 30-year conventional mortgage rates recorded during the calendar month.

Image credit: Stable Diffusion DreamStudio Beta. Prompt: "House keys next to miniature house, mortgage payment, highly detailed, photorealistic".

U.S. stock market dividends turned in a mostly negative performance in March 2025.

On the positive side of the ledger, March 2025's 16 dividend decreases came in below the 23 recorded in February 2025. Meanwhile, the year-over-year change in dividend reductions was little changed, increasing by just one over March 2024's total.

However, the change in the number of favorable changes like dividend increases, extra dividends and resumed dividends was decidedly negative. Combined, these three categories added to 141 favorable dividend actions for March 2025, which is 59 less than the 200 reported a year earlier.

This significant year-over-year reduction in favorable dividend actions combines with the small increase in unfavorable dividend changes to give March 2025 an overall score of -60. The following table presents Standard and Poor's dividend metadata for March 2025. It summarizes how the month's dividend data compares in both Month-over-Month (MoM) and Year-Over-Year (YoY) terms with previously reported data:

The following chart shows how these numbers fit in the longer running context of dividend increases and decreases since January 2004.

March 2025 represents a continuation of an ongoing negative trend for dividend increases that's been going on since the first quarter of 2023.

Switching to quarterly dividend results, the next chart, groups the previous 15 months worth of dividend increase and decrease data into quarters, covering the last five quarters from 2024-Q1 through 2025-Q1. The chart shows 2025-Q1 was more negative for dividend paying companies in the U.S. stock market than 2024-Q1 was.

The silver lining in this data is that the overall number of monthly dividend decreases remains below the threshold that is consistent with recessionary conditions being present in the U.S. economy.

But with a falling number of favorable dividend actions, how long might that continue?

References

Standard and Poor. S&P Market Attributes Web File. [Excel Spreadsheet]. Accessed 1 April 2025.

Image Credit: Microsoft Copilot Designer. Prompt: "An editorial cartoon of a Wall Street bull and bear anxiously watching a display that says 'DIVIDEND RESULTS'".

Motio Research's initial estimate of U.S. median household income in February 2025 is $82,651. This figure is $278 (0.3%) higher than the firm's initial estimate of median household income of $82,373 in January 2025.

Motio Research's estimates are based on income data collected by the U.S. Census Bureau through its monthly Current Population Survey, which are conducted in the month following the month in question during the week containing the 12th day of the month. The firm adjusts its monthly estimates to account for the effects of seasonality and inflation in its data, presenting its results in the form of an index with the median household income of January 2010 assigned a value of 100. The initial value of the firm's U.S. Real Median Household Income Index for February 2025 is 116.7.

The following screenshot of Motio Research's interactive chart shows how this index has changed from January 2010 through February 2025:

The firm's U.S. Real Median Household Income Index last peaked in September 2024 and has been in a flat-to-lower trend in the months since.

Motio Research also generates household income estimates for the 25th and 75th percentiles in addition to its 50th percentile (median) estimate. The firm reports the households at these positions in the income distribution saw mixed outcomes from their January 2025 levels. Here is what they reported in their 18 March 2025 press release:

The real 25th percentile household income index edged up 0.1% in January, rising to 116.0 (or $41,380). However, lower-quartile incomes have declined by 0.8% over the past three months and remain 0.5% lower than a year ago. The index also remains below its pre-Covid peak of 117.7, underscoring continued challenges in income recovery for lower-income households.

At the upper quartile, the real 75th percentile household income index dipped slightly by 0.1%, settling at 121.0 (or $148,162). Over the past three months, upper-quartile household income has increased by 0.3% and is now 1.4% higher than a year ago. Despite February's small decline, higher-income households continue to maintain a strong position well above their pre-pandemic peak of 117.6.

Motio's press release indicates their estimates suggest "ongoing softness in income growth" for lower-income households during the second month of 2025.

Analyst's Notes

Political Calculations produces estimates of median household income that complement the monthly survey-based estimates produced by Motio Research, which we derive from aggregate income data produced by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. Our initial estimate of median household income in February 2025 based upon our alternate methodology is $82,886, which is $89 (or 0.1%) higher than our initial January 2025 estimate of $82,797. Our median household income estimate is $235 (0.3%) higher than Motio Research's January 2025 estimate.

The latest update to Political Calculations' chart tracking Median Household Income in the 21st Century shows the nominal (red) and inflation-adjusted (blue) trends for median household income in the United States from January 2000 through February 2025. The inflation-adjusted figures are presented in terms of constant February 2025 U.S. dollars and are not seasonally adjusted, unlike the data used to produce Motio Research's Household Income index:

Political Calculations' monthly median household income estimates are derived from the Bureau of Economic Analysis' monthly aggregate wage and salary estimates for the U.S. population. For February 2025, this data includes very small downward revisions for November (-0.005%) and December 2024 (-0.066%). The revisions also include a larger downward revision to the aggregate income estimate for January 2025 (-0.223%).

References

U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. Table 2.6. Personal Income and Its Disposition, Monthly, Personal Income and Outlays, Not Seasonally Adjusted, Monthly, Middle of Month. Population. [Online Database (via Federal Reserve Economic Data)]. Last Updated: 28 March 2025. Accessed: 28 March 2025.

U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. Table 2.6. Personal Income and Its Disposition, Monthly, Personal Income and Outlays, Not Seasonally Adjusted, Monthly, Middle of Month. Compensation of Employees, Received: Wage and Salary Disbursements. [Online Database (via Federal Reserve Economic Data)]. Last Updated: 28 March 2025. Accessed: 28 March 2025.

U.S. Department of Labor Bureau of Labor Statistics. Consumer Price Index, All Urban Consumers - (CPI-U), U.S. City Average, All Items, 1982-84=100. Not seasonally adjusted. [Online Database (via Federal Reserve Economic Data)]. Last Updated: 12 March 2025. Accessed: 12 March 2025.

Image credit: U.S. Census Bureau. We modified the public domain image to make it more generally applicable beyond reporting the median household income from 2022.