The numbers for U.S. stock market dividends were bearish in November 2024.

Standard and Poor's dividend metadata for the month tells the tale. There were 43 fewer favorable changes recorded for November 2024 than were recorded in the same month a year earlier. At the same time, the number of unfavorable changes over this year-over-year period rose by one. The combination of these figures gives us a net change of -44, which confirms November 2024 as a bearish month for dividend paying stocks in the U.S. stock market.

For context, the number of favorable changes adds together November 2024's dividend increases, resumptions of dividend payments after having been suspended, and also any special or extra dividend payments for shareholders. Unfavorable changes include dividend decreases and omitted (or passed, or suspended) dividends.

The following table tallies all these dividend actions for November 2024, while also presenting the month-over-month and year-over-year changes. The year-over-year changes are what we use to consolidate all the positive and negative changes into a single number that tells us whether the month was bullish (positive) or bearish (negative) for dividend paying firms in the U.S.

While November 2024's dividend metadata is bearish, the good news is the dividend numbers are not recessionary. The number of dividend decreases recorded during the month remains well below the threshold that would indicate recessionary conditions are present within the U.S. economy.

The following chart visualizes the monthly counts of dividend increases and decreases from January 2004 through November 2024.

December 2024's dividend metadata will likely see both the number of dividend increases and decreases come in lower than November 2024's levels. These changes would be consistent with the typical seasonal pattern for dividends when investors do not expect any major changes in tax policies in the upcoming new year.

References

Standard and Poor. S&P Market Attributes Web File. [Excel Spreadsheet]. Accessed 4 September 2024.

Image Credit: Microsoft Copilot Designer. Prompt: "An editorial cartoon of a Wall Street bear looking at a crystal ball with the word 'DIVIDENDS'".

Motio Research's initial estimate of U.S. median household income in October 2024 is $82,222. This figure is $85 (0.1%) less than the firm's initial estimate of median household income in September 2024 of $82,307.

Motio Research's estimates are based on income data collected by the U.S. Census Bureau as part of its monthly Current Population Survey. The firm adjusts its monthly estimates to account for the effects of seasonality and inflation in its data, presenting its results in the form of an index with the median household income of January 2010 assigned a value of 100. The initial value of the firm's U.S. Real Median Household Income Index for October 2024 is 117.1.

The following screenshot of Motio Research's interactive chart shows how this index has changed from January 2010 through October 2024:

Analyst's Notes

Political Calculations produces estimates of median household income that complement the monthly survey-based estimates produced by Motio Research. Our initial estimate of median household income in October 2024 based upon our alternate methodology is $82,249, which is $76 (0.1%) higher than our initial estimate of $82,173 for September 2024. Our median household income estimate is just $27 (0.03%) higher than Motio Research's October 2024 estimate.

The latest update to Political Calculations' chart tracking Median Household Income in the 21st Century shows the nominal (red) and inflation-adjusted (blue) trends for median household income in the United States from January 2000 through October 2024. The inflation-adjusted figures are presented in terms of constant October 2024 U.S. dollars and are not seasonally adjusted, unlike the data used to produce Motio Research's Household Income index:

Political Calculations' monthly median household income estimates are derived from the Bureau of Economic Analysis' monthly aggregate wage and salary estimates for the U.S. population. For October 2024, this data includes significant downward revisions to previously reported data for April (-0.47%), May (-0.79%), June (-0.96%), July (-0.98%), August (-1.00%) and September 2024 (-1.07%).

Other Monthly Median Household Income Estimates

The Atlanta Fed has released a major revision to its full set of monthly median household estimates, which now dates back to January 2005. It previously had only reported estimates from January 2006 onward. While most the changes are relatively small at less than one percent different than what was included in its April 2024 revision, all the Atlanta Fed's new estimates from February 2020 onward have been revised upward, with greater than one percent adjustments made for all months after November 2021.

Starting from the Atlanta Fed's median household estimate for December 2021, which was revised upward by 1.4% to $71,407, its estimates for subsequent months were adjusted upward by a progressively larger percentage. June 2024 saw the largest change from an initial estimate of $81,627 to $84,587, a +3.6% increase. The Atlanta Fed's median household income estimates for July and August 2024 are new, at $84,921 and $85,255 respectively. The Atlanta Fed's median household income estimates are now significantly higher than either Motio Research's or Political Calculations' monthly estimates for these months.

References

U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. Table 2.6. Personal Income and Its Disposition, Monthly, Personal Income and Outlays, Not Seasonally Adjusted, Monthly, Middle of Month. Population. [Online Database (via Federal Reserve Economic Data)]. Last Updated: 27 November 2024. Accessed: 27 November 2024.

U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. Table 2.6. Personal Income and Its Disposition, Monthly, Personal Income and Outlays, Not Seasonally Adjusted, Monthly, Middle of Month. Compensation of Employees, Received: Wage and Salary Disbursements. [Online Database (via Federal Reserve Economic Data)]. Last Updated: 27 November 2024. Accessed: 27 November 2024.

U.S. Department of Labor Bureau of Labor Statistics. Consumer Price Index, All Urban Consumers - (CPI-U), U.S. City Average, All Items, 1982-84=100. Not seasonally adjusted. [Online Database (via Federal Reserve Economic Data)]. Last Updated: 13 November 2024. Accessed: 13 November 2024.

Image credit: U.S. Census Bureau. We modified the public domain image to make it more generally applicable beyond reporting the median household income from 2022.

Wall Street's bulls had an especially good Thanksgiving week. In addition to having a holiday-shortened work week, they were especially thankful to have the prospect of an additional rate cut in 2025 put back on the table. In response to that good news, the S&P 500 (Index: SPX) rose to close at a new all-time record high of 6,032.38 at the close of trading on Friday, 29 November 2024. The index ended the week up just over one percent over where it closed the preceding week.

There was no specific news headline that drove stock prices during the short trading week. Instead, a favorable consensus developed during the week of how the Fed's current series of rate hikes would extend into 2025. The CME Group's FedWatch Tool projects the Fed will act to reduce the Federal Funds Rate by 0.25% on 18 December 2024. After that, the FedWatch tool now anticipates that the Fed's next interest rate action will be another quarter point cut on 19 March (2025-Q1), some three months earlier than projected a week earlier. The tool has added a new expected rate change in its forecast for 2025, a 0.25% cut on 17 September (2025-Q3), which wasn't previously in the forecast.

Those changes were enough to continue the upward momentum of the S&P 500. The latest update of the alternative futures chart places the index at a level that's consistent with investors focusing on the distant future quarter of 2025-Q3, which is consistent with the FedWatch Tool's projections as of Friday, 29 November 2024.

With U.S. markets trading week shortened by the Thanksgiving holiday, much of the market moving news of the week that was came from outside the U.S.

Monday, 25 November 2024

• Signs and portents for the U.S. economy:
• Oil prices steady as Russia, Iran tensions fuel supply fears
• Exclusive: Trump prepares wide-ranging energy plan to boost gas exports, oil drilling, sources say
• Fed minions get data saying they have more problems than inflation to address, think productivity might be bright spot:
• Fed survey finds inflation fading as a risk next to debt, trade wars
• Fed's top expert on productivity sees case for optimism
• ECB minions say Germany in bad shape, but will take their time in delivering rate cuts to stimulate Eurozone economy:
• Germany stuck in economic weakness but rate cuts should be gradual, Nagel says
• Wall St closes higher; small-caps hit record high after Trump nominates Bessent

Tuesday, 26 November 2024

• Signs and portents for the U.S. economy:
• Oil rises after selloff on possible Middle East ceasefire
• US oil firms unlikely to go 'drill, baby, drill' under Trump, says Exxon executive
• US new home sales tumble to two-year low in October
• US monthly house prices rise strongly in September
• Trump tariffs would harm all involved, US trade partners say
• Fed minions signal rate cut still coming in December 2024, want to go slower on future rate cuts:
• Fed's Kashkari: Interest-rate cut in December is 'reasonable'
• Fed cites volatility, uncertainty as reasons to go slow on rate cuts
• Some Fed policymakers open to lowering the overnight repo rate
• Bigger trouble developing in China:
• China Oct industrial profits narrow decline, but headwinds loom
• China state media warn Trump against mutually destructive tariff war
• BOJ minions getting inflation data to justify rate hike:
• Japan's steady service inflation keeps alive BOJ rate-hike prospects
• Bigger trouble developing in Eurozone, ECB minions get support for more rate cuts from inflation, growth data:
• Euro's bruising leaves global investors on edge
• Investors' euro zone inflation expectations fall below 2% for first time since 2022
• ECB policymakers grow nervous about weak growth, Trump tariffs
• S&P 500, Dow finish at record highs as investors set aside Trump tariff plans
• Wall Street stocks end higher on tech; markets analyze Trump's tariff threats, Fed minutes

Wednesday, 27 November 2024

• Signs and portents for the U.S. economy:
• Oil steady after surprise rise in US gasoline stocks
• US PCE price inflation ticks higher in October, as expected
• US third-quarter economic growth unrevised at 2.8%
• U.S. housing affordability to worsen even as price rises slow: Reuters poll
• BOJ minions losing money:
• BOJ incurs record losses on bond holdings as yields rise
• ECB minions worried that Eurozone has structural economic problem:
• ECB rate stimulus no magic wand for structural faults, Schnabel argues
• French risk premium hits 12-year high while German bond yields fall
• Nasdaq falls, S&P ends off high with tech stocks under pressure, PCE inflation stalling
• Wall Street stocks end lower after inflation data, tech stocks push Nasdaq down

Friday, 29 November 2024

• Signs and portents for the U.S. economy:
• Oil settles down as ease of supply risks drives weekly loss
• Bigger trouble, bigger rate cuts developing in Canada:
• Canada's economy expands by just 1%, chances of big rate cut jump
• Prepare for extra traffic at US ports
• Looming Trump Tariffs Spark Wave of Freight Frontloading From China
• China Air Cargo Flights Soar as Trump Return, Tariffs Loom
• Mixed economic signs developing in China:
• China's home prices set to stabilise by 2026 after slower falls: Reuters poll
• China's Nov manufacturing activity seen expanding for second month: Reuters poll
• But bigger trouble still developing in China:
• Chinese bond market grapples with ‘Japanification’
• BOJ minions counting on wage inflation to justify rate hike:
• BOJ's Ueda says wage trends key to possible rate hikes, Nikkei reports
• BOJ's Ueda says rate hike timing 'approaching', Nikkei reports
• BOJ's retreat from low rates heightens Japan's debt troubles
• ECB minions starting to think they might need to deliver a bigger Eurosone interest rate cut in December 2024:
• European companies cut jobs as economy sputters
• German retail sales fall more than expected in October
• ECB needs to separate policy, transmission tools, Knot says
• Budget woes put French borrowing costs equal with crisis-scarred Greece
• Explainer: Could the ECB help France if borrowing costs surge further?
• ECB's Villeroy: Should keep door open of larger rate cut in December
• S&P closed above 6,000 as the holiday shortened week ended; Nasdaq and Dow also gained
• S&P 500, Dow close at record highs on tech, retail in focus

The Atlanta Fed's GDPNow tool's projection of the real GDP growth rate for the current quarter of 2024-Q3 increased to +2.7% from the previous week's +2.5%.

Image credit: Microsoft Copilot Designer. Prompt: "An editorial cartoon with a Wall Street bull eating a Thanksgiving dinner with a dish labeled 'EXTRA 2025 RATE CUT'". The image was tweaked to add and clean up some text.

The day after Thanksgiving is a difficult one because you now have to figure out what to do with all those leftovers from the big meal. Not all of them will be as good on their second serving. The turkey will be drier. Any vegetables or potatoes you cooked will be at risk of being overcooked when you heat them up again. Dishes that involve words like "casserole" are almost certainly best disposed of because they were bad ideas to begin with.

There is one exception. There's always room for pie.

Smart planning for Thanksgiving means preparing more than one pie to ensure that you can have enough pie to survive to the day after. While pumpkin pie is the traditional pie for Thanksgiving dinner, having another kind of pie on hand is the bonus you deserve for having enough restraint on Thanksgiving to ensure you can have more pie.

What other kind of pie do you want to have?

Sabrina Elfarra curated data from Google Trends in 2023 to find out what other kinds of pies Americans were looking up recipes to cook in the days leading up to Thanksgiving that year. Here's her map illustrating what she found to be the most popular Thanksgiving pie recipe search by state:

The alternate (non-pumpkin) pie recipes include:

• Apple
• Blackberry
• Cherry
• Coconut
• Grape
• Banana Cream
• Banoffee
• Buttermilk
• Butterscotch
• Cream
• Key Lime
• Chocolate
• Mississippi Mud
• Peanut Butter
• Pecan
• Frito Chili
• Sweet Potato
• Tamale
• Shoofly

If you're looking for non-pumpkin pie options, you might consider these for their second pie potential at next year's Thanksgiving holiday. Choose wisely!

Image credit: Different types of pies on a dining table by grabadonut on Wikimedia Commons. Creative Commons Creative Commons 4 - CC BY-SA 4.0.

Today is the big event! And if you're not already starting to cook that turkey for your 2024 Thanksgiving feast, you soon will be!

But before you get started, let's address a question that may already be in the back of your mind from when you picked up the bird you'll be cooking. Is this year's turkey bigger than the one you cooked last year?

There's a good chance it is. The U.S. Department of Agriculture's initial estimate of the live weight of the turkeys that were raised during 2024 is 32.8 pounds (14.9 kilograms). That's up 2.5% from their 2023 estimate of 32 pounds.

But it's not as big as 2021's record live weight of 33.1 pounds (15.0 kilograms). The following interactive chart shows how the size of live turkeys raised on U.S. farms has changed over the 55 years from 1970 through 2024.

At more than 32 pounds, farm-raised turkeys are more than double the size of wild "heritage" turkeys in the U.S. on average. Most the increase in the size of farm-raised turkeys has taken place since 1980.

References

U.S. Department of Agriculture. Turkeys Raised. [PDF Document]. 27 September 2024.

Image Credit: Microsoft Copilot Designer. Prompt: "A picture of a turkey who has been exercising and building up bulk".