On the day after Thanksgiving 2025, we launched a new series in which we'll track the 10 stocks of the S&P 500 (Index: SPX) that Seeking Alpha's Jason Capul headlined as "Thanksgiving leftovers no one wants".

Capul identified the ten worst performing stocks of the S&P 500 in 2025, which raised a question for us. Would a Dogs of the Dow investing strategy work for the year's worst performing component stocks of the S&P 500?

We decided we're going to find out. We'll track how these stocks collectively perform up through Thanksgiving 2026 using two popular methods. The first method is the simplest: we created an index with an equal number of shares of each company's stock in it.

For the second method, we recorded the market capitalization of each company's stock on Friday, 28 November 2025 and added the results together to find their combined market capitalization. Then we calculated the percentage of each company's market cap with respect to that total to determine how much of a hypothetical investment would have to go into buying each stock at their closing prices recorded on 28 November 2025. The following table presents the results of that exercise:

We've also indicated which of these ten stocks pay dividends in the table. Here, each of three dividend payers in this collection of stocks paid quarterly dividends in December 2025 and January 2026. For the equal-weighted portfolio, which would have cost $1,143.55 for one share of each of these ten stocks at the end of trading on 28 November 2025, the effective quarterly dividend payout totaled $2.17. That's the equivalent of an annual yield of 0.76%.

Meanwhile, the market capitalization weighting gives a slight boost to the contribution of the dividend-paying members of this group of stocks. Their annual yield is 0.86% thanks mainly to dividend payer Chipotle's largest-in-the-group market cap.

These dividend yields are tiny. So much so they will make very little difference in the total return of our hypothetical investments in the Thanksgiving Leftover stocks during the course of the year we'll be following them. Our plan is to track them behind the scenes while reporting the performance of the two basic portfolios without dividend reinvestment on a monthly basis. When we reach the conclusion of this series on the day after Thanksgiving 2026, we'll report how dividend reinvestment would have affected the total returns for both portfolios.

Now that we've covered how we set up our two hypothetical portfolios, let's see how they were doing through the close of trading on 27 January 2026, two months after Thanksgiving 2025:

Since Thanksgiving 2025, both the equal-weighted and market-cap weighted portfolios of these ten Thanksgiving Leftover stocks have outperformed the S&P 500. In December, the equal-weight portfolio did better than the market cap-weighted portfolio, but that reversed in January 2026 with the market cap-weighted version performing better. Through 27 January 2026, we find the market cap-weighted index of 2025's Thanksgiving Leftover stocks is worth 106.7% of their starting value, while the equal-weight portfolio of the same stocks has grown to be 104.5% of its initial level. The S&P 500 has likewise increased, but to just 101.9% of its value on 28 November 2025.

At two months into this series, it's far too early to say the "Thanksgiving Leftover" investing strategy will beat the S&P 500 by the time Thanksgiving 2026 rolls around. The early indication however is that the Thanksgiving Leftover investing strategy is capable of beating the index by a significant margin.

We'll see if that's still true near the end of February when we have a full quarter of stock price changes to consider!

Image Credit: Microsoft Copilot Designer. Prompt: "A logo to feature 'Thanksgiving Leftover Stocks'".

The Federal Reserve sets monetary policy in the United States with two main goals in mind. Its first goal is to provide for stable prices over time, which is to say the Fed has the job of managing financial conditions in the U.S. economy to keep inflation under control. Its second goal is to use the financial tools at its disposal to maximize employment in the U.S. economy.

For the Fed, these are more than just goals. The U.S. Congress specifically mandates the Federal Reserve do these two things.

Of these two jobs, Federal Reserve officials have been mostly concerned about combatting inflation since 2021, when the Biden administration unleashed high inflation with its fiscal policies. At the time, the Fed chose to let President Biden's inflation rip because they committed to get the economy back to full employment during 2020's coronavirus pandemic.

But once that mark was hit in early 2022, they resumed pursuing their first task of inflation control. Before the pandemic, the Fed got to be pretty good at managing inflation, aiming to keep it under 2% and from January 2000 through March 2021, inflation measured by the Consumer Price Index averaged 1.7% annualized growth.

Letting President Biden's inflation rip resulted in consumer prices growing at a annualized rate of 9.1%. That regime lasted up until 2022 when the Fed finally made combatting the runaway inflation they allowed a priority and started using their main tool of setting interest rates to make inflation grow at their desired target rate by hiking the Federal Funds Rate. Which they did slowly at first, then aggressively until they achieved the inflation rate they desired.

But what rate did they desire? Federal Reserve officials frequently toss out the idea they want prices to rise on average either around or no more than 2% in a year, the inflation target they informally set for themselves in 1996 and officially adopted in 2012.

Consumer price data since the Fed's 2022 interest rate hikes began having an effect on the rate of inflation suggests they are trying to hit a 3% inflation target. The following chart reveals they've never come close to their old 2% inflation target in all the years since.

At this point, we should point out the Fed is targeting Personal Consumption Expenditures, which is a different inflation measure. But as you can see from a similar chart created by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis' Fernando M. Martin, the results are within a few tenths of a percent over the period in which inflation was steady. And we suspect they would be even closer to the Consumer Price inflation figures we found had Martin calculated the annualized trends over the more granular periods we did rather than over whole calendar years [1].

The low variation of the growth of the PCE and CPI indexes during the periods when the Fed has actively managed inflation is the tell-tale indication the Fed is hitting its inflation target. Since mid-2022, the data indicates they've really been aiming at a 3% inflation target.

Martin has additional observations worth noting:

Following the inflation surge during the pandemic, prices have since been increasing at a pace significantly faster than in the prepandemic period. Just like during the inflation surge, the above-target inflation period is broad-based and not attributable to a few sectors or categories. These facts suggest the U.S. economy is in a new above-target inflation regime, which mirrors the below-target inflation regime of the prepandemic era. There are many potential explanations for this regime shift, such as the fiscal outlook. The recent imposition of tariffs has so far had a modest impact on prices and, thus, is unlikely to have contributed significantly to the current regime.

There's an old saying that "persistent inflation is always and everywhere a monetary phenomenon". Rest assured that today's higher than 2% inflation is a direct result of the Fed's monetary policies and they are hitting the inflation target they really want to hit.

Notes

[1] Martin's annual inflation rates reflect his analytical approach, which is most representative when the inflation rate is steady over the entire period in question. In the case of the high inflation period within 2021-2022, Martin's whole-year inflation rate understates the rate of inflation experienced by Americans within it because it includes data from the months before inflation got out of hand and data from the months after the Fed got it back down to where they appear to want it.

References

U.S. Department of Labor Bureau of Labor Statistics. Consumer Price Index, All Urban Consumers - (CPI-U), Not Seasonally Adjusted, U.S. City Average, All Items, 1982-84=100. Accessed 25 January 2026.

Financial Forecast Center. U.S. CPI Forecast. . Accessed 25 January 2026.

Fernando M. Martin. Is the U.S. in an Above-Target Inflation Regime? Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis On the Economy Blog. [Online Article]. 17 October 2025.

Image Credit: Microsoft Copilot Designer. Prompt: "An editorial cartoon showing three Federal Reserve officials in suits playing darts. On the wall are two round targets: one labeled '2% INFLATION' with no darts in it, and another labeled '3% INFLATION' with many darts clustered around its bullseye. One official, an older man with glasses and a beard, is holding a dart and speaking to the others. His speech bubble says: 'I THINK WE'RE GETTING CLOSER...' The other two officials wear jackets labeled 'FED' and look on with concern. Style is pen-and-ink with cross-hatching and bold lines".

The Consumer Expenditure Surveys conducted by the U.S. Census Bureau and compiled by the Bureau of Labor Statistics play a major role in how inflation is measured in the United States. Data from these surveys is used to set the weights of different categories of these expenditures within the index, which in turn, affects how the BLS calculates the inflation American consumers experiencing through the Consumer Price Index (CPI).

But how are those weights changing over time? We recently featured charts showing the data for shares that the major categories of consumer expenditure have with respect to the average total expenditures of American household consumer units from 1984 through 2024, but those charts have a weakness. They present too many data series together, which makes it tough to track how individual categories are changing, especially when their data is close in value to that of other categories and the data series either cross-over each other or overlap.

We're experimenting with a different way to visually present that data. The following chart showing how the share of the major categories of consumer expenditures with respect to total average expendtures uses a clustered column format to group ten years worth of data for each major category. This format makes it easier to see how recent trends for each major category are developing, while also making it easy to compare how each category compares with others, which indicates how much weight it has in the calculation of the Consumer Price Index.

We've also organized the major categories of consumer expenditures in order from highest to lowest as you read the chart from left to right. For most of these data series, 2020 represents something of an anomaly because of that year's coronavirus pandemic. But when you look closer at these categories, especially the four largest ones, you'll find that each has claimed a rising share of total expenditures in the years since 2020. These are the categories in which inflating prices contributed to their rising share of consumer expenditures.

At the same time, other expenditures show falling trends over these years. What you're seeing are Americans reducing this other spending in response to the rising cost of the "Big 4" consumer expenditure categories.

For policymakers, this chart indicates that focusing on reducing costs in those "Big 4" categories to make them more affordable will do the most to provide tangible benefits for American consumers.

Speaking of which, health care, in the middle of the chart, is an interesting and deceptive anomaly. It shows health care expenditures as a share of average total expenditures, which are dominated by health insurance, rising through 2020, then falling in the years since. That's not because health insurance has become less costly since 2020, it's because the U.S. government increased health insurance subsidies so much it offset the big increases in the cost of health insurance that has been taking place. Since these subsidies are not truly sustainable, it would be greatly beneficial for policymakers to focus instead on directly reducing the cost of health insurance itself.

References

U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. Consumer Expenditure Survey. Multiyear Tables. [PDF Documents: 1984-1991, 1992-1999, 2000-2005, 2006-2012, 2013-2020. Excel spreadsheet: 2021-2024]. Reference URL: https://www.bls.gov/cex/home.htm. 19 December 2025. 

The S&P 500 (Index: SPX) experienced some geopolitical turmoil during the holiday-shortened trading week ending on Friday, 23 January 2026. The index plunged two percent on Tuesday, 20 January 2026 thanks to a one-two punch.

One of the punches was delivered by President Trump's weekend announcement he would impose new tariffs on European nations opposing his initiative to acquire Greenland from Denmark. That action had sent European stock prices lower before contributing to the U.S. stock market's drop. The good news here however is that by Thursday, the dispute was resolved and stock prices recovered.

The second punch was delivered by a developing crisis for Japan's economy. On Tuesday, 20 January 2026, the nation's new prime minister, Sanae Takaichi, announced plans for a snap election to secure a mandate for much higher government spending. That's a problem because Japan's central bank has been struggling to control inflation, which the new spending is expected to aggravate. The response by markets has been to send Japanese government bonds and its currency plunging, which has a global impact. This developing crisis has not yet been resolved.

In reaction to all this, and other market-moving news, the U.S. stock market rebounded, but not all the way. The S&P 500 closed out the week at 6,915.61, down 0.35% from its previous week's close.

It's not often we can point to geopolitical events as contributing anything more than noise to the trajectory of stock prices. The latest update of the alternative futures chart shows the S&P 500's trajectory is where it would be expected to be for investors focusing on the upcoming future quarter of 2026-Q2.

As for why, one major reason is provided by the CME Group's FedWatch Tool, which continues to project the Fed will hold the Federal Funds Rate steady until 17 June (2026-Q2), when it anticipates a 77% probability for a quarter point rate cut. The tool forecasts a better than 50% chance of another quarter point reduction on 28 October (2026-Q4).

As for what else influenced investor expectations for the future during the week that was, here are the week's market moving headlines:

Tuesday, 20 January 2026

• Signs and portents for the U.S. economy:
• Oil rises on Kazakh supply disruptions, upbeat economic data; Greenland in focus
• Trump's Greenland threat puts Europe Inc back in tariff crosshairs
• Trump says he will '100%' follow through on tariff threat - as it happened
• Trump promises ‘good’ Greenland plan; Europe pushes back - as it happened
• Fed minions job security to be determined by U.S. Supreme Court:
• Supreme Court tests limits of Trump's power over the economy
• Cook case could lead to 'cause' protections for Fed, or a roadmap for dismissals
• Bigger trouble, stimulus developing in China:
• China must strike right balance between demand and supply, says President Xi
• China hits 2025 GDP growth target on export boom, but can't shake domestic chill
• China can't make consumers buy goods, so it leans on services to drive economy
• As US orders fade, Chinese salespeople face tough grind in new markets
• China’s Trillion-Dollar Illusion
• BOJ minions signal more hikes to Japan's interest rates ahead:
• BOJ to signal more rate hikes as yen, politics fuel inflation risks
• Japan PM Takaichi to call Feb 8 snap election on spending, tax cuts and defence
• Buyers flee Japanese debt as Takaichi hits the ground spending
• Japan’s long-bond yields surge to record highs. Why it may be a problem beyond Tokyo
• Instant View: Japan bond yields soar as election promises stir fiscal fears
• ECB minions to get new Number Two minion, say new tariffs no big deal for Eurozone:
• Croatia's Vujcic nominated as ECB's next vice president
• Fresh tariffs to have muted inflation impact in Europe, ECB's Villeroy says
• European stocks drop the most in two months on Trump tariff threat over Greenland
• Nasdaq dropped over 2% as Wall Street closed deep in the red on geopolitical jitters
• Stock market today: Dow plummets 800 points, S&P 500, Nasdaq sink over 2% as Trump's Greenland threats clobber stocks
• Gold notches record above $4,700/oz, silver hits all-time high

Wednesday, 21 January 2026

• Signs and portents for the U.S. economy:
• Trump drops European tariff threat and announces framework Greenland deal - as it happened
• Trump signs order to limit Wall Street investors in single-family housing
• WTI oil prices fall as risks from Kazakh production halt subside
• US construction spending rebounds in October amid renovations
• US pending home sales plunge to five-month low in December
• Fed minions expected to hold rates steady until it gets new management:
• Fed to hold rates through March, and possibly through Powell's tenure - Reuters poll
• Trump says he may be down to one candidate to head the Fed
• Bigger trouble developing in Japan, calls for BOJ and JapanGov minions to stabilize currency:
• Exclusive: Japan should respond 'decisively' to bond selloff, opposition head says
• Japan's top labour union group urges government to stabilise forex
• ECB minions getting excited about digital currency:
• ECB's Panetta says banks will need to issue fully digital private money
• Wall Street rallied higher after Trump spoke at Davos and eased tariff concerns
• Wall Street ends higher as investors cheer Greenland framework deal, averted tariffs

Thursday, 22 January 2026

• Signs and portents for the U.S. economy:
• New trade map takes shape in Davos as world adjusts to Trump tariffs
• Silver rally strains global supply as retail demand surges across Asia
• US consumer spending rises, labor market remains in lackluster shape
• Trump's mortgage-backed bond purchases not moving needle on housing costs
• US third-quarter economic growth revised slightly higher
• Fed minions' future job security lies in Supreme Court decision, still not seeing getting inflation they predicted from tariffs:
• US Supreme Court sees risk in Trump running roughshod over Fed
• Fed's Favorite Inflation Indicator Refuses To Show Any Signs Of Runaway 'Trump Tariff' Costs
• Bigger trouble developing in China:
• China's rural banks struggle to sell seized properties despite hefty discounts
• Bigger exports developing in Japan, worry about U.S. trade policy; BOJ minions going through their options to deal with bond rout:
• Japan's exports up for fourth straight month, US dip clouds outlook
• Japan retains cautious economic view, flags risks from US trade policies
• What are Japan's policy options to soothe its bond rout?
• Small but rising opposition party warns BOJ raising rates too rapidly
• ECB minions think they've got everything covered with their monetary policy for the Eurozone:
• ECB in no hurry to change rates, comfortable with market bets, accounts show
• Wall Street finishes up as investors buoyed by tariff relief, upbeat data
• Wall Street finished higher as Greenland fears ease
• Gold tops $4,900/oz; silver and platinum extend record setting rally
• Speculative frenzy catapults silver above $100 an ounce
• Silver rally strains global supply as retail demand surges across Asia

Friday, 23 January 2026

• Signs and portents for the U.S. economy:
• Oil prices rise on Trump's Iran 'armada' comments and Kazakh outage
• Bigger trouble developing with China:
• US control of Venezuela oil risks debt restructuring showdown with China
• BOJ minions say they're really worried about inflation but hold Japan's interest rates steady, try to keep currency from collapsing, Japan's economy sees growth signs:
• Japan's core inflation slows in December but stays above BOJ goal
• BOJ keeps rates steady, raises growth and inflation forecasts
• BOJ signals more hikes in hawkish tilt, warns of action against yield spike
• Yen choppy on intervention jitters after BOJ strikes hawkish tone
• Japan's factory activity returns to growth after seven months, PMI shows
• Eurozone minions back down, ECB minions perfect monetary policies to be potentially challenged by new inflation:
• EU to suspend 93 billion euro retaliatory trade package against US for 6 months
• Euro zone business activity expands steadily but price pressures reemerge
• Dow ends lower after topsy-turvy week, as Intel's outlook weighs on market sentiment
• Wall Street ended mixed as turbulent week concluded with Intel earnings
• Intel tumbles as analysts weigh in on supply constraints, gross margin concerns

The Atlanta Fed's GDPNow toolestimate of real GDP growth in the U.S. during 2025-Q4 gained a tick, rising to +5.4% from the +5.3% growth it projected a week earlier.

Image credit: Microsoft Copilot Designer. Prompt: "An editorial cartoon of a Wall Street bull and bear, both wearing suits, watching the Geopolitical Pendulum swinging between one side that says 'Good for stocks' and the other that says 'Bad for stocks'". Which we followed up with a request to "Make the cartoon more colorful".

How much is the typical American household consumer unit paying out of pocket for health insurance premiums? And how has that changed from 1984 through 2024?

The annual Consumer Expenditure Survey is the go-to source for this kind of information, detailing how American consumer units spend money. "Consumer units", if you weren't already aware of this peculiar expression, is the Bureau of Labor Statistics' data jocks' affectionate nickname for American households that are close to, but not quite equivalent to, households. For what it's worth, the most basic difference is that a "consumer unit" in 2024 consisted of 2.4 people, but a household consisted of 2.54 people. Because that difference is very small, we'll just call it a "household consumer unit" and run with it.

In 2024, the average U.S. household consumer unit spent an average of $78,535 on everything it bought during the year. On average, that household consumer unit spent $4,055, or a little under 5.2% of its total expenditures, out of its own pocket for health insurance in 2024.

Our first chart tracks how the overall trend for out-of-pocket expenditures on health insurance has changed from 1984 through 2024:

The amount that Americans pay on health insurance has not slowed down since the implementation of the Affordable Care Act (ACA) of 2010. The law, which was intended to "bend the cost curve" of health insurance downward, has failed.

Our second chart looks at the more recent history from 2008 through 2024, where here, we're tracking the change in how health care costs have changed since 2008.

We find the cost of health insurance has been increasing much faster than the costs for what Americans pay out-of-pocket for medical services, drugs, and medical supplies. All these costs have risen since the Biden administration unleashed high inflation in 2021, but health insurance has increased the most out of all these categories.

References

U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. Consumer Expenditure Survey. Multiyear Tables. [PDF Documents: 1984-1991, 1992-1999, 2000-2005, 2006-2012, 2013-2020. Excel spreadsheet: 2021-2024]. Reference URL: https://www.bls.gov/cex/home.htm. 19 December 2025. 

Image credit: Health Insurance Card and Stethoscope photo by Marek Studzinski on Unsplash.