Motio Research's initial estimate of U.S. median household income for August 2026 is $88,190, a $380 (or 0.43%) increase from the firm's initial estimate of $87,810 for July 2026. The month-over-month increase reverses the declines Motio Research reported for each of the preceding two months.
Here are screenshots of the interactive charts Motio Research provides to visualize trends in the U.S.' median household income. The first chart presents the firm's Household Income Index, which is based on three-month moving average that sets the period of January 2010 through March 2010 at a value of 100 after making adjustments for inflation and seasonality in the data. The second chart presents their monthly median household income estimates in nominal (not adjusted for inflation) terms for the period from January 2010 through August 2026.
Monthly Household Income Index
Median Household Income Estimates
The U.S. Census Bureau announced its estimate of median household income for the 2025 calendar year on 15 September 2026, reporting it reached $87,460. This estimate is based on household income data collected through the Annual Social and Economic Supplement (ASEC) survey that the Census Bureau conducted in March 2026. The ASEC survey collects data from about 95,000 U.S. households.
Motio Research's monthly median household income estimates are compiled from data the Census Bureau collects from about 50,000 U.S. households through its monthly Current Population Survey (CPS).
Analyst's Notes
Political Calculations produces monthly median household income estimates using an alternate methodology that complements Motio Research's survey-based estimates. In August 2026, Political Calculations' initial estimate of median household income is $88,574. This estimate is $424 (or 0.5%) higher than our initial estimate of $88,150 for July 2026's median household income.
The following chart presents our estimates of U.S. median household income, both adjusted for inflation (blue) and not-adjusted for inflation (red) for each month from January 2000 through August 2026.
Political Calculations' August 2026 estimate is $384 (0.4%) above Motio Research's estimate of $88,190. The negative momentum Motio Research has observed in their monthly data series is so far not registering in the aggregate income data we use to derive our estimates.
The aggregate wage and salary income data we utilize in producing our complementary median household income estimates underwent a substantial revision in the 30 September 2026 data release. The revisions extend back to January 2021 and update previously reported data through July 2026.
The revisions can be divided into three basic categories:
- January 2021 - December 2023: Small, with revisions typically ranging within 0.10% of the previously reported value.
- January 2024 - December 2025: Moderate, with revisions often revised upward between 0.10% and 0.55%, though three of the 24 months in this period had negative adjustments.
- January 2026 - July 2026: Large, with universally positive upward adjustments ranging from a low of 0.43% in January 2026 to a high of 0.89% in June 2026. July 2026's aggregate income data was revised upware by 0.85% above it's previously reported level.
For the latest in our coverage of median household income in the United States, follow this link!
The BEA's revised data has been incorporated in our modeling to produce updated estimates for the period from January 2021 thorugh July 2026, which are visually presented in our chart.
References
U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. Table 2.6. Personal Income and Its Disposition, Monthly, Personal Income and Outlays, Not Seasonally Adjusted, Monthly, Middle of Month. Population. [Online Database (via Federal Reserve Economic Data)]. Last Updated: 30 September 2026. Accessed: 30 September 2026.
U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. Table 2.6. Personal Income and Its Disposition, Monthly, Personal Income and Outlays, Not Seasonally Adjusted, Monthly, Middle of Month. Compensation of Employees, Received: Wage and Salary Disbursements. [Online Database (via Federal Reserve Economic Data)]. Last Updated: 30 September 2026. Accessed 30 September 2026.
Image credit: U.S. Census Bureau. We modified the public domain image to make it more generally applicable beyond reporting the median household income from 2022.
Labels: median household income
New home sales increased in August 2026 as buyers took greater advantage of builder incentives that are making new homes relatively more affordable than they were earlier in the year. The incentives have erased about ten years worth of new home price inflation.
Political Calculations' initial estimate of the total value of new homes sold across the United States during August 2026 is $29.20 billion. This value represents a notable increase over July 2026's initial estimate of $28.41 billion.
The average price at which new homes are being sold has been falling since March 2026, largely because of increased incentives from builders to make sales in a rising rate environment for mortgages. With the average price of new homes sold falling, only a greater number of new home sales is capable of producing an increase in the total valuation of new homes sold. If August 2026's effective discounted sale pricing continues to boost sales, it would potentially mark the beginning of a reversal in what has been a downward trend for new home sales in recent months.
In that context, the builder incentives are proving successful in more-than-offsetting the higher cost impact of increasing mortgage rates on new home buyers, making new homes relatively more affordable.
The change in new home sale prices is significant according to the U.S. Census Bureau, which tracks new home sales:
New-home sales rose in August by 6.4 percent month over month, by the government’s count. The Census Bureau found the gain fell within its margin of error (and it was 2 percent below the August 2025 rate), but one figure it marked significant: An 8.8 percent annual drop in the average price of a new home last month....
The Bureau estimated the average sales price of a new home fell 8.8 percent to $478,700 from $525,100 in August 2025. The average also fell 9.1 percent from July, when it stood at $526,400, according to the Bureau.
The following charts present the U.S. new home market capitalization, the number of new home sales, and their average sale prices as measured by their time-shifted, trailing twelve month averages from January 1976 through August 2026.
Potential reversal of downtrend for sales?
New home prices trending downward:
Looking forward, homebuilder incentives increased in September 2026:
More builders cut prices in September, according to the NAHB/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index. The survey found 38 percent of builders reported price cuts, up from 35 percent in August. Sixty-six percent used sales incentives, up from 63 percent in August and the highest share since December, when it reached 67 percent. The average price cut held at 6 percent for a sixth straight month, according to NAHB.
The new home market follows a seasonal pattern with the number of sales peaking during summer months. It will be interesting to see if the heightened incentives can also offset the seasonality for new home sales and if the positive change holds after several months of regular data revisions.
References
U.S. Census Bureau. New Residential Sales Historical Data. Houses Sold. [Excel Spreadsheet]. Accessed 24 September 2026.
U.S. Census Bureau. New Residential Sales Historical Data. Median and Average Sale Price of Houses Sold. [Excel Spreadsheet]. Accessed 24 September 2026.
Image credit: New Home Construction by Paul Brennan on PublicDomainPictures.net. Creative Commons CC0 Public Domain/a>.
Labels: market cap, real estate
It finally happened. One of 2025's Thanksgiving Leftover stocks has been removed from the S&P 500 (Index: SPX).
That stock belongs to The Trade Desk (NASDAQ: TTD), which we previously described as the worst of 2025's Thanksgiving Leftover stocks. It was ejected from the S&P 500 earlier this month because of its ongoing dismal performance. The move came a day after the company announced it would lay off 15% of its staff as it goes through a restructuring.
The writing on the wall for the company was visible as early as February of this year. In August, it was clear that action was coming and that the stock would have further to fall after it did.
Flashing forward to last week, that latter reality began taking hold, as managers of funds that track the S&P 500 began clearing out TTD stock from their holdings.
Through the close of trading on Monday, 28 September 2026, the Trade Desk finds itself at the very bottom of our spaghetti chart tracking the relative movements of 2025's ten Thanksgiving Leftover stocks during the last ten months with respect to their value on the day after 2025's Thanksgiving holiday.
Also through 28 September 2026, we find that eight of the ten Thanksgiving Leftover stocks we've been following have dropped below the values recorded for each on 28 November 2025.
While The Trade Desk is arguably having the worst year of its existence, one other member of the S&P 500's Thanksgiving Leftovers of 2025 is starting to also break away from the pack for its disappointing performance in 2026. Lululemon Athletica (NASDAQ: LULU) plunged in September thanks to the worsening outlook for its apparel business.
Compared to our August 2026 snapshot, both the market cap-weighted and equal-weighted indices composed of the ten Thanksgiving Leftover Stocks dropped lower. The market cap-weighted version of the index dropped to its lowest level of the year, having lost 18.5% of its day-after-Thanksgiving Day 2025 level.
Here is the latest version of our chart tracking our two hypothetical indices and the S&P 500.
The market cap-weighted version of the Thanksgiving Leftover stock index was pulled lower as its three most heavily weighted components, Chipotle Mexican Grill (NYSE: CMG), Fiserv (NASDAQ: FISV), and Lululemon Athletica (NASDAQ: LULU), which together account for 51.7% of its value, all dropped during the past month.
There are only two months to go to find out how many of the Thanksgiving Leftover stocks will remain underwater with respect to where they were on the day after Thanksgiving 2025. Which ones do you suppose will rise above the waterline by the time the day after Thanksgiving Day 2026 rolls around?
Labels: ideas, stock prices, thanksgiving
The S&P 500 (Index: SPX) climbed 1.2% over its previous week's close to end the trading week at 7,743.41 on Friday, 25 September 2026. The index is just 0.7% below its record all-time high closing value from 13 August 2026.
The same things that have been rattling investors for much of the third quarter of 2026 continued trying to scare investors during the week that was. Oil prices kept jumping about with geopolitical developments. The big AI companies kept themselves in the news with releases of new flagship products and calls for regulation that seem aimed at helping them avoid product liability claims. Meanwhile, bond markets all over the globe have been coping with quickly rising yields, with stock prices reacting to their ups and downs.
Plus, it's not even October yet, which is historically the scariest month for stock prices because it's the most volatile!
Even with all the week's news and the upcoming scary season, the S&P 500 performed predictably. The latest update of the alternative futures chart shows the index' trajectory is pretty closely following the dividend futures-based model's projection of where stock prices are expected provided investors are focusing on the final quarter of 2026.
Here are the headlines that contributed to how the market moved during the trading week ending on the final full week of September 2026.
- Monday, 21 September 2026
-
- Signs and portents for the U.S. economy:
- Fed minions worry inflation might spread beyond oil prices, blame "strong demand", standing by to deliver more rate hikes:
- Kashkari warns inflation has spread beyond oil shock
- Fed's Goolsbee: Strong demand may be adding to US inflation, 'no ambiguity' how Fed would react
- Fed's Musalem says more rate hikes likely needed to quell inflation
- Bigger trouble, stimulus developing in China:
- BOJ minions commitment to more interest rate hikes questioned by currency traders:
- ECB minions worried Eurozone gas price rise will cause inflation, expand use of blockchain technlogy to get larger share of transactions:
- Europe's gas price surge may feed into inflation more quickly, ECB finds
- ECB opens blockchain link to financial markets
- Wall Street surged higher to start the week ahead of the Trump-Xi summit
- Tuesday, 22 September 2026
-
- Signs and portents for the U.S. economy:
- Fed minions see growth signs for U.S. economy, afraid of inflation they've allowed to fester for years:
- Fed's Barkin says economy may be firming, inflation not limited to energy, tariff shocks
- Fed's Collins says she supported rate hike, warns of elevated inflation risks
- Fed's Williams says rate-control toolkit is working well
- Fed's discount window supports market liquidity, Jefferson says
- ECB minions say Eurozone inflation to drop to their target sometime next year:
- Wall Street closed mixed as the Nasdaq notched a new all-time high
- Wednesday, 23 September 2026
-
- Signs and portents for the U.S. economy:
- 10-year Treasury yield rockets to 19-year high. Here’s what’s driving the spike
- US business activity at more than five-year high; inflation pressures building
- Oil falls $1 on better supply outlook, hopes for US-Iran talks
- Fed minions aim at inflation, hit young and lower-income borrowers:
- BOJ minions see Japan's bond yields rise without them hiking Japan's interest rates again:
- Eurozone sees growth, ECB minions say more megacorps needed for bigger Eurozone economic growth:
- Eurozone economic growth picks up speed as PMI climbs to 41-month high
- EU could recoup third of US economic lead with bigger firms, ECB says
- U.S. equities closed deep in the red while Treasury yields surged
- Thursday, 24 September 2026
-
- Signs and portents for the U.S. economy:
- US, China agree to extend trade truce by two months, work on bigger deal, Bessent says
- Oil prices settle up about 3% as Houthi attack on Saudi Arabia lifts supply fears
- US business activity at more than five-year high; inflation pressures building
- US new home sales jump to eight-month high in August
- Fed minions worry about inflation, thinking about more rate hikes and how to regulate cryptocurrencies:
- Fed officials see rates likely rising to curb high inflation
- Fed's Hammack warns inflation pressures remain tilted to upside
- Fed's Williams says it is reasonable to see another US rate hike this year
- US Federal Reserve proposes new stablecoin rules
- Fed again hoping for a pain-free landing from current inflation spike
- Bigger trouble, bigger stimulus developing in China:
- China's fuel inventories hit over decade lows, raising concerns over comeback of export curbs
- China central bank to inject more liquidity as Golden Week nears
- BOJ minions deliver rate hike as expected, thinking about more:
- BOJ could raise rates every quarter, ex-policymaker says
- JGB yields jump as inflation worries resurface
- ECB minions not seeing Eurozone inflation they're most afraid of, want more megacorps in Eurozone; lower level minion quits to cash in on new job:
- ECB not seeing any big wage response to surging inflation
- Europe's economy surprisingly resilient amid war-driven energy shock, surveys show
- ECB will decide on rates from meeting to meeting, Kocher tells newspaper
- EU could recoup third of US economic lead with bigger firms, ECB say
- ECB's Schnabel quits to join IMF, setting in motion a board reshuffle
- S&P 500 ends marginally lower as investors focus on US-Iran war
- Friday, 25 September 2026
-
- Signs and portents for the U.S. economy:
- US core capital goods orders point to robust growth in business spending on equipment
- US weekly jobless claims near 57-year lows; price reductions boost new home sales
- Oil slides as US-Iran truce hopes outweigh Houthi attacks on Saudi Arabia
- Fed minions starting to worry about AI, worrying less about banks, and still worried by inflation:
- Fed's Schmid: Need to understand if AI "ecosystem" getting too big to fail
- US Fed plans to raise bank oversight thresholds, sources say
- Fed's Hammack worried inflation expectations could deteriorate
- Bigger trouble developing in and out of China:
- ECB minions to France: Drop Dead
- S&P 500 posts weekly gains despite Treasury yield, oil headwinds
The CME Group's FedWatch Tool still three more quarter point rate hikes over the next six months, with the next rate change expected on 28 October (2026-Q4). The remaining two rate hikes would appear set to follow at 12-week intervals, coming after the Fed meets on 27 January (2027-Q1) and 17 March (2027-Q1).
The Atlanta Fed's GDPNow tool's projection of real GDP growth for the U.S. economy in 2026-Q3 fell to +5.0%, dipping from the +5.1% annualized growth it forecast a week earlier.
Image credit: Microsoft Copilot Designer. Prompt: "An editorial cartoon of a Wall Street bull being scared by a bear pointing to a calendar labeled 'OCTOBER' which is the scariest month of the year for the stock market".
Visual Capitalist's Niccolo Conte has created a new data visualization ranking nations according to their debt-to-GDP ratios. However, instead of only looking at their government debt as many others analysts have done, he's also broken out rankings for household and non-financial corporate debts as well for 43 of the world's biggest national economies.
Here's his summary of the top ranked nation for each category:
Debt can sit on very different parts of an economy’s balance sheet. In Japan, the largest burden sits with the government. In Switzerland, households stand out. And in Luxembourg, corporate borrowing towers over the size of the economy.
Here's the chart:
Conte describes what he found in creating the rankings:
Government debt is concentrated in Southern Europe and East Asia, with Greece (146.5%), Italy (137.1%), France (116.0%), Spain (100.7%), and Portugal (89.7%) all in the top 15 alongside Japan and Singapore (166.2%)....
Household debt is concentrated among wealthy economies with expensive housing and deep mortgage markets, led by Switzerland, Australia (114.0%), Canada (100.6%), the Netherlands (93.8%), and New Zealand (91.1%).
Corporate debt is especially high in Northern Europe and economies that host multinational financing structures. Luxembourg, Hong Kong, and Singapore (127.2%) all rank among the leaders.
Only three economies rank in the top 10 of more than one column: Canada, Hong Kong, and Singapore. Canada’s government (100.2%), households (100.6%), and companies (118.3%) each owe roughly a year of GDP, which is why the country ranks sixth on combined debt without leading any single category.
Conte finds unique conditions apply for both Singapore and Switzerland, which are near or are at the top of the government and household debt-to-GDP categories:
Singapore’s second-place government figure is not what it looks like. By law, the proceeds of Singapore Government Securities cannot be spent on the budget. Most are issued to the national pension fund and invested, leaving the state with more assets than debt and a AAA credit rating....
Switzerland’s position at the top of the household ranking is particularly notable because the country has one of Europe’s lowest homeownership rates.
For decades, Swiss tax law taxed homeowners on the imputed rental value of their homes while allowing them to deduct mortgage interest, which rewarded keeping a mortgage rather than paying it down. Voters abolished that system in September 2025, with the change taking effect no earlier than 2028.
How many other countries have similarly strange and perverse incentives for their households and corporations to rack up debt?
Reference
Nicholas Conte. Ranked: Countries With the Highest Debt-to-GDP Ratios. [Online article, Infographic]. Visual Capitalist. 8 September 2026.
Labels: data visualization, national debt
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