At this time of year, as we get closer to Halloween, there's nothing quite like a good scare. That's true for at least for some members of the Inventions in Everything team, who wait until this month to drop the patent they've found that they think is most likely to give regular people the heebie-jeebies on the rest of the IIE team.

Some, as in the case of self-carving pumpkins and Halloween holograms, aren't so scary. Meanwhile, others are unsettling, while some qualify as good old-fashioned pure nightmare fuel.

The innovation represented by U.S. Patent 748,284 somewhere in between. You know those glass blocks that contain engraved three-dimensional pictures of your family? Well, what if you had one of those, but with your deceased relatives, as a means to preserve them?

We're not making this up. Here's the abstract of the 1903 patent, in which inventor Joseph Karwowski describes what it's all about:

This invention relates to certain new and useful improvements in methods of preserving the dead; and it has for its object the provision of a means whereby a corpse may be hermetically incased within a block of transparent glass, whereby being effectually excluded form the air the corpse will be maintained for an indefinite period in a perfect and life-like condition, so that it will be prevented from decay and will at all times present a life-like appearance.

The patent illustrations confirm Karwowski's intended application:

Having been patented in 1903, we can safely say this invention failed in marketplace. If it had been successful, after 120 years, the accumulation of 12 decades worth of corpses displayed in large glass blocks would be hard to miss, despite some odd stories to the contrary.

In fact, about the closest you can come to a commercial product based on the idea of encasing a body in a case to display is to buy a replica of Han Solo encased in carbonite. Frankly, the fact that you can easily find these things for sale on the Internet more than four decades after The Empire Strikes Back was released in movie theaters is maybe scarier than the idea of dead bodies displayed in glass blocks.

The market capitalization of the S&P 500 (Index: SPX) increased by 7.8% during the third quarter of 2024. According to Standard and Poor, the index ended 2024-Q3 with a market cap of $50.57 trillion.

Since the end of the second quarter of 2024, the value of the Top 10 stocks within the market cap-weighted index dropped from representing 35.8% of the index' total value to 34.6%. That change happened as their combined market capitalization increased from $17.11 trillion to $17.51 trillion.

While that increase of $400 billion is impressive, it also means the other 493 firms that make up the index collectively rose by a much larger amount. The market cap of all these other firms increased some $2.34 trillion to $33.06 trillion.

The following chart shows the relative shares of the top 10 stocks in the S&P 500 at the end of the 2024-Q3. There have been some notable changes since the end of the previous quarter.

Here are the market capitalizations of each of the S&P 500's top ten component firms at the end of Monday, 30 September 2024:

• Apple (NASDAQ: AAPL) $3,676,779,800,879 (7.27%)
• Microsoft (NASDAQ: MSFT) $3,322,756,986,489 (6.57%)
• Nvidia (NASDAQ: NVDA) $3,100,228,360,301 (6.13%)
• Amazon (NASDAQ: AMZN) $1,805,516,353,389 (3.57%)
• Meta Platforms (A) (NASDAQ: META) $1,299,769,475,689 (2.57%)
• Alphabet (A) (NASDAQ: GOOGL) $1,011,493,755,400 (2.00%)
• Berkshire Hathaway (B) (NYSE: BRK.B) $874,942,098,421 (1.73%)
• Broadcom (NASDAQ: AVGO) $834,482,348,205 (1.65%)
• Alphabet (C) (NASDAQ: GOOG) $834,482,348,205 (1.65%)
• Tesla (NYSE: TSLA) $753,562,847,773 (1.49%)

The biggest change is Apple (NASDAQ: AAPL), which vaulted to the number one slot, regaining its position as the most valuable company in the world as measured by its market cap. As that happened, both Microsoft and Nvidia fell one slot from their previous position to occupy the #2 and #3 slots in the market cap ranking.

The other notable changes happened at the bottom end of the Top 10, with Eli Lilly & Co. (NYSE: LLY) dropping out of this exclusive club. It was replaced by Tesla (NYSE: TSLA), which rejoined it.

The valuation of Broadcom (NASDAQ: AVGO) rose enough to move the firm from the #10 to #8 slot, and the value of the C class shares of Alphabet (NASDAQ: GOOG) shrank by $100 billion as this portion of the firm dropped from the #6 to #8 position. Berkshire Hathaway (B) (NYSE: BRK.B) moved up to take its place in the #6 position.

References

Standard and Poor. S&P Market Attributes. [Excel Spreadsheet]. 30 September 2024. Accessed 1 October 2024.

The third quarter of 2024 was both less positive and more negative for dividend paying companies than the second quarter of the year.

That seems like double-edged way of saying the quarter was worse for the U.S. stock market's dividend payers, but to just simply say it was worse would miss communicating how it was worse, which was less bad than it had the potential to be.

Maybe the best way to cut through the noise is with a picture. Our first chart presents the positives for dividend payers as the number who declared they would increase their dividends and the negatives as the number of firms who announced they would decrease them. The chart shows both increases and decreases for each of the last five quarters, spanning 2023-Q3 through the just completed 2024-Q3.

The chart shows the number of firms increasing dividends in 2024-Q3 fell with respect to the previous quarter, which is less positive. Likewise, the number of dividends decreases is more negative, as more firms announced they were reducing their dividend payouts.

At this point, these are relatively small negative changes and perhaps not much to be concerned about just yet. There is after all the bright spot of the year-over-year comparison, where things look better for both counts.

The most distressed sector in 2024-Q3 was the oil and gas industry, which outnumbered firms in other sectors. That makes sense with oil prices falling during much of the quarter as global demand has waned. That trend lowers the revenues and earnings for the firms in this sector, with dividends following suit for the companies that pay variable or hybrid dividends. Even so, with 14 dividend decreases announced by firms within the oil and gas sector, the total of these firms falls below the threshold that signals recessionary conditions within the U.S. are impacting it.

Switching to monthly data, we find September 2024 was net positive for U.S. dividend paying companies compared, with the number of favorable changes outweighing the number of negative changes. The following table summarizes Standard and Poor's dividend metadata for September 2024, comparing it both Month-over-Month (MoM) and Year-Over-Year (YoY) with previously reported data:

Because of the seasonal pattern for dividends, in which the number of dividend actions typically decreases in the final month of the third quarter, the best comparison is the year-over-year data. Compared with September 2023, there were 37 more favorable changes announced in September 2024 and 13 fewer unfavorable changes, for a net positive of 50.

The final chart we'll present is the monthly number of dividend increases and decreases, which covers January 2004 through September 2024.

Three months ago, we noted there was potentially a bearish storm cloud developing in the U.S. stock market. Compared to 2024-Q2, it's started to arrive but may not be as bearish as its potential suggested. That's good news, and we'll take that whenever we can find it.

References

Standard and Poor. S&P Market Attributes Web File. [Excel Spreadsheet]. Accessed 1 October 2024.

Image Credit: Microsoft Copilot Designer. Prompt: "An editorial cartoon of a Wall Street bull and a bear looking at each other, with one of them asking 'What was that all about?'"

Motio Research's initial estimate of U.S. median household income in August 2024 is $81,562. This figure is $3,017 (3.8%) higher than the firm's initial estimate of median household income in July 2024 of $78,545.

That very large increase followed the U.S. Census Bureau's release of its annual median household income estimate for 2023 of $80,610, which prompted the firm to update and revise its monthly estimates. Motio Research's monthly estimates of median household income are produced using income data collected by the U.S. Census Bureau as part of its monthly Current Population Survey.

For its Household Income Index, the firm adjusts its monthly estimates to account for the effects of seasonality and inflation in its data, which is then indexed with the median household income of January 2010 assigned a value of 100. The following screenshot of Motio Research's interactive chart shows how this index has changed from January 2010 through August 2024:

After its revisions, Motio's estimate of nominal median household income in July 2024 increased to $81,010, some 3.1% above its initial estimate. The month-over-month increase in Motio Research's non-inflation adjusted, non-seasonally adjusted estimate for August 2024 is about 0.7%.

Analyst's Notes

Political Calculations produces estimates of median household income that complement the monthly survey-based estimates produced by Motio Research. Our initial estimate of median household income for August 2024 is $81,817. This estimate is based upon our alternate methodology, which we've updated this month.

Like Motio Research's August 2024, it shows the effects of a large revision over the initial figure of $78,280 for July 2024, a 4.5% increase.

The latest update to Political Calculations' chart tracking Median Household Income in the 21st Century shows the nominal (red) and inflation-adjusted (blue) trends for median household income in the United States from January 2000 through July 2024. The inflation-adjusted figures are presented in terms of constant July 2024 U.S. dollars and are not seasonally adjusted, unlike the data used to produce Motio Research's Household Income index:

Unlike Motio Research, our methodology incorporates aggregate wage and salary data that was also subject to its own substantial revision on 27 September 2024 by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. These revisions affected previously reported data covering the period from January 2019 through July 2024. The next chart shows both the previous and newly revised estimates for the aggregate wage and salary data for the U.S. over this period and also the percentage change from the previously reported figures.

The combined effects of these revisions has prompted us to update the methodology for our complementary method, in which the data indicates we've entered a new relationship between the average per capital wage and salary income derived from the BEA's revised figures after March 2021.

We called this an initial cut because we're debating if the data since March 2021 indicates more than one change in the relationship between median household income and trailing year average per capita earned income has taken place. There is however absolutely no question that this relationship is significantly different from the relationships that existed through March 2021, which can be seen in this chart.

The period after March 2021 coincides with a period of persistent elevated inflation in the U.S. economy whose origin traces back to that month. We think the period after March 2022 may be different because it coincides with the delayed actions by the Federal Reserve to combat the high inflation that was unleashed a year earlier.

Our initial post-revision median household income estimates show a drop-off in the median household income estimates from March 2021 to April 2021, which represents the transition from the previously established relationship to the post-March 2021 relationship. We anticipate we'll be refining our methodology for this period in the months ahead.

References

U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. Table 2.6. Personal Income and Its Disposition, Monthly, Personal Income and Outlays, Not Seasonally Adjusted, Monthly, Middle of Month. Population. [Online Database (via Federal Reserve Economic Data)]. Last Updated: 27 September 2024. Accessed: 27 September 2024.

U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. Table 2.6. Personal Income and Its Disposition, Monthly, Personal Income and Outlays, Not Seasonally Adjusted, Monthly, Middle of Month. Compensation of Employees, Received: Wage and Salary Disbursements. [Online Database (via Federal Reserve Economic Data)]. Last Updated: 27 September 2024. Accessed: 27 September 2024.

U.S. Department of Labor Bureau of Labor Statistics. Consumer Price Index, All Urban Consumers - (CPI-U), U.S. City Average, All Items, 1982-84=100. Not seasonally adjusted. [Online Database (via Federal Reserve Economic Data)]. Last Updated: 11 September 2024. Accessed: 11 September 2024.

Image credit: U.S. Census Bureau. We modified the public domain image to make it more generally applicable beyond reporting the median household income from 2022.

The biggest market moving story for the S&P 500 (Index: SPX) in the final full trading week of September 2024 continued to be the stimulus measures the Chinese government will use to boost China's troubled economy. That story similar to what played out last week, with one key difference. Instead of leaving it up to speculation for what they would do, China's government followed through and rolled out several measures to juice the country's economy.

That boosted stock prices, especially in China and throughout Asia, which saw their best week since 2008. But lots of U.S. companies will benefit from increased economic activity in China, which is why the S&P 500 climbed along with news of China's stimulus rollout on Monday, Tuesday and Thursday. The index ended the week up 0.6% from the previous week at 5,738.17. The S&P even a new record high of 5,745.37 on Thursday before retreating a little over 0.1% to close the week.

That small increase was enough to keep the index' trajectory tracking along in the upper portion of the redzone forecast range indicated in the latest update of the alternative futures chart.

Here's a more complete sampling of the market-moving news headlines from the week that was.

Monday, 23 September 2024

• Signs and portents for the U.S. economy:
• Oil settles lower on weak euro zone business activity
• Oil firms evacuating US Gulf of Mexico staff as hurricane threat rises
• US Manufacturing PMI Plunges To 15-Month Lows; Prices Are Soaring Again
• Fed minions really worried about jobs in U.S. and will keep cutting rates because of their fears, really don't want to be holding so many Mortgage Backed Securities:
• Fed officials say risks to jobs warranted rate cut as debate shifts to pace of easing
• Fed's Goolsbee sees 'many more' rate cuts ahead
• Fed's Kashkari says 50 basis points rate cut was 'right decision'
• Fed paper sketches out slow slog to unload central bank's mortgage bonds
• Bigger stimulus slowly developing in China:
• China's Central Bank Injects Cash, Lowers 14-Day Reverse Repo Rate
• China Launches More Stimulus: PBOC Cuts Rates, Announces Rare Press Conference On Support For Economy
• Bigger trouble developing in Eurozone, ECB minions say Eurozone exports can't compete well enough:
• Euro zone business activity unexpectedly contracts in September, PMI shows
• Euro zone exporters facing persistent competitiveness struggle, ECB says
• Nasdaq, S&P, Dow ended slightly higher in a rather muted trading session

Tuesday, 24 September 2024

• Signs and portents for the U.S. economy:
• Oil climbs on China stimulus, Middle East conflict and hurricane risk
• Fed's rate cut offers limited relief for US factories facing China competition
• US fiscal profile set to weaken under next administration, Moody's says
• US monthly house prices edge up in July
• Bigger stimulus finally arrives in China:
• China's central bank unveils most aggressive stimulus since pandemic
• China Panics: Cuts Multiple Rates And Reserve Ratio Requirements, Goes All-In To Prop Up Stocks
• China's central bank unveils broad easing measures to revive economy
• China stimulus pushes global shares to new peak, boosts commodities
• Asia stocks hit 2-1/2-year high on China's stimulus measures
• China's bigger troubles showing up in Japan, BOJ says they won't rush to raise Japan's already low interest rates:
• Japan's Sept factory activity slips, PMI shows
• BOJ chief signals no rush to raise rates further
• Bigger trouble developing in Eurozone, ECB minions thinking they'll need to cut rates well into 2025:
• Exclusive: German economy expected to contract again in 2024, say sources
• ECB's Knot sees rate cuts through the first half of 2025
• S&P 500, Dow close at new highs as mining stocks rise on China stimulus boost
• S&P, Dow close at record highs, Nasdaq up as China stimulus offsets dour consumer data

Wednesday, 25 September 2024

• Signs and portents for the U.S. economy:
• Shippers scramble for workarounds ahead of looming US East Coast port strike
• Bananas, cars, and clothes: US port labor dispute threatens range of products
• US 30-year mortgage rate slips to 6.13%, refinancing jumps
• US new home sales fall less than expected; median house price declines
• Oil declines as investors weigh whether new China stimulus will boost demand
• Worries develop over possibility Fed minions 'outsize' rate cut will enable inflation:
• Fed's bumper rate cut revives 'reflation specter' in US bond market
• Fed's Kugler strongly supported half-percentage-point rate cut
• Bigger stimulus not enough to offset bigger trouble developing in China?
• China's monetary volleys miss key threat to economic growth
• China weighs injecting $142 bln of capital into top banks, Bloomberg News reports
• BOJ minions waiting for new political leadership to set direction:
• Japan's leadership race clouds BOJ's rate hike path
• ECB minions get data to support their next rate cut in October:
• ECB sees further signs of easing wage pressures
• Dow, S&P 500 end lower, back off record highs; Nasdaq edges up
• Stocks struggle as China stimulus boost fades

Thursday, 26 September 2024

• Signs and portents for the U.S. economy:
• Oil prices slide on prospects Saudi Arabia to raise output
• US second-quarter economic growth unrevised; GDI revised sharply higher
• US 30-year fixed-rate mortgage dips to 6.08%, lowest since Sept 2022
• US pending home sales hover near record low in August, NAR says
• Fed minions thinking about how to make emergency funds more easily available to banks, how to shrink their balance sheet, and how to better use interest rate benchmarks:
• Fed's discount window can be normal funding source for banks, Barr says
• Fed's Bowman says discount window use is for emergencies
• NY Fed's Perli says there is plenty of room left to run in shrinking Fed holdings
• Fed's Williams announces new effort on reference rates
• Bigger stimulus rolling out in China:
• China vows 'necessary spending' to hit economic growth target
• Exclusive: China to issue $284 billion of sovereign debt this year to help revive economy
• Chinese banks in need of capital injection to give thrust to economic stimulus steps
• ECB minions thinking about when, how much to cut Eurozone interest rates:
• Exclusive: ECB doves to push for rate cut in Oct, hawks to dig in - sources
• Wall Street ticks to another record as stocks worldwide rally
• China's stimulus-led stock rally pulls Asia and Europe higher; oil falls

Friday, 27 September 2024

• Signs and portents for the U.S. economy:
• US consumer spending, inflation rise moderately in August
• Oil steady but set for weekly drop on higher supply outlook
• Fed minions increasingly expected to deliver another half point rate cut in November 2024:
• Fed seen cutting rates another 50 bps in November
• Fed is aligned on rate cuts, but upcoming data will shape the pace
• Fed's Cook says she 'wholeheartedly' supported half-point rate cut
• Fed should cut interest rates 'gradually,' Musalem says
• Bigger trouble leads to bigger stimulus developing in China:
• China's industrial profits suffer biggest slump this year, adds to economic woes
• China's factory activity seen extending declines in Sept: Reuters poll
• China launches late stimulus push to meet 2024 growth target
• China cuts short-term borrowing costs
• BOJ minions bracing to continue keeping interest rates in Japan low:
• Japan factory output seen down on weak overseas demand, typhoon disruptions: Reuters poll
• Core inflation in Japan's capital matches BOJ target
• Bigger trouble developing in Eurozone leading ECB minions to think about cutting rates again:
• Poor euro zone data flow keeps adding to case for ECB rate cut
• S&P 500 ends week up more than 1% as favorable data, China stimulus ripple through markets
• China-linked stocks climb on bevy of stimulus measures

The CME Group's FedWatch Tool projects more rate cuts ahead. It projects better than even odds of another half point rate cut on 7 November 2024, followed by a continuing series of 0.25%-0.50% rate cuts at approximate six-to-12-week intervals well into 2025.

The Atlanta Fed's GDPNow tool's projection of the real GDP growth rate for the current quarter of 2024-Q3 rose to +3.1% from the previous week's forecast of +2.9% growth.

Image credit: Microsoft Copilot Designer. Prompt: "An editorial cartoon of a smiling Wall Street bull looking at a news ticker in Times Square that says 'CHINA TO STIMULATE ECONOMY'" We tweaked the text in the image to say ‘CHINA STIMULATES ECONOMY’ to make it up to date for this week.