Today's fuel prices are once again elevated for consumers as the latest result of a series of shocks in the underlying price of oil that have taken place since the 1973 Oil Crisis. How does today's average price of a gallon of gasoline at the pump compare to those earlier episodes?

To find out, we tapped the U.S. Energy Information Administration's data on the average retail price of a gallon of gasoline sold in the United States, which surprisingly only extends back to April 1993. That month marks when the EIA adopted its basic methodology for surveying retail gasoline prices across all the regions it monitors in the United States, which has been consistently collected and reported since.

We've taken that available nominal price data and presented it in the following chart from April 1993 through September 2026 as the red data series. We've also adjusted its price for the effects of inflation to be in terms of constant September 2026 U.S. dollars (blue). Here's the chart, which includes our annotations of the contributors to the major oil prices shocks that have taken place during this period:

The current price shock ranks fourth out of the four major shocks covered in the chart after accounting for inflation. The period from 2005 to 2008 comes in first as the fuel prices rose after Hurricane Katrina and remained in short supply as China's and India's oil consumption grew sharply in this period until the onset of the 2008-09 Financial Crisis and Great Recession.

In second place, the escalation of prices resulting from the series of shocks diminishing the output of oil from Libya and from nations affected by the Arab Spring uprisings in the early 2010s, which lasted until the shale oil boom in the U.S. triggered OPEC to slash prices to try the stifle the new competetion.

Fuel prices at the pump then hit a low with the loss of demand in 2020's Coronavirus Pandemic, but quickly recovered in 2021 to the third-highest spike on the chart with the Biden administration's fiscal stimulus that also produced high inflation in the U.S. Combined with the geopolitical impact of Russia's February 2022 invasion of Ukraine, which reduced the supply of Russian produced oil because of economic sanctions, fuel prices went on to reach the third-highest peak in June 2022. Fuel prices then fell for several years as the Biden administration sought to undo the damage its policies created by draining the U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve.

The Iran conflict, which began on 28 February 2026, has resulted in the fourth highest spike on the chart.

Unlike the previous price spikes, the price of diesel fuel has risen relatively higher in the two most recent shock events because of diminished global refining capacity for producing diesel fuel in the period since the 2010s. The next chart shows how the average price per gallon for diesel in the U.S. has changed from April 1994 through September 2026, which covers the EIA's available data for this fuel.

The latest price shock has been constrained in part by the U.S. supplying markets with oil from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve and by other nations' supplying oil from their strategic reserves.

The EIA's weekly price data for both gasoline and diesel points to a small decline in these prices during the first three weeks of October 2026.

References

U.S. Energy Information Administration. Petroleum & Other Liquids: U.S. All Grades All Formulations Retail Gasoline Prices (Dollars per Gallon), April 1993-September 2026. [Excel spreadsheet]. Accessed 25 October 2026.

U.S. Energy Information Administration. Petroleum & Other Liquids: U.S. No 2 Diesel Retail Prices (Dollars per Gallon), April 1994-September 2026. [Excel spreadsheet]. Accessed 25 October 2026.

U.S. Department of Labor. Bureau of Labor Statistics. Consumer Price Index, All Urban Consumers - (CPI-U), U.S. City Average, All Items, 1982-84=100[Online Database]. Accessed 25 October 2026. Data collection for October 2025 was omitted and is presented as the average of September and November 2025's index values.

Image credit: A row of gas pumps filled with gas photo by engin akyurt on Unsplash.

The S&P 500 (Index: SPX) closed out the trading week ending on Friday, 23 October 2026 a little under a half percent from its previous week's close. The index went into the weekend at 7,623.68, which is 2.5% below its record high close of 7,818.93 back on 6 October 2026.

What the Federal Reserve will be doing with interest rates continued to dominate investor attention during the week that was. With Fed officials silent in blackout mode in the week ahead of their scheduled meeting on 27-28 October 2026 to determine their next actions, investors had little information to go on.

It showed in how little expectations changed for how the Fed will set the Federal Funds Rate in the weeks ahead. The CME Group's FedWatch Tool continues to project the Fed skip taking any action during this week's meeting and will next act to hike the Federal Funds Rate by a quarter point at the end of its next meeting on 9 December (2026-Q4). That hike would be followed by another quarter point rate hike that will be announced when the Fed's rate-setting Open Market Committee meets on 17 March (2027-Q1).

After that, the FedWatch Tool anticipates one more rate hike in 2027, coming when the Fed meets on 15 September (2027-Q3). That's 18 weeks later than what it projected a week earlier, but in reality, it wouldn't take much to move it earlier on the calendar, say to June (2027-Q2).

The latest update of the alternative futures chart shows stock prices dropped to the lower end of the range associated with investors focusing on the current quarter of 2026-Q4 as they set current day stock prices.

That downward adjustment mostly took place in the latter part of the week. It came about as investors became increasingly concerned over how much tech companies are spending to realize their plans for building and implementing AI systems and also because also because oil prices increased because of ongoing geopolitical events in the Middle East. While neither of these are new concerns, in the absence of direction on the future for interest rates from the Fed, they represented the bulk of new information investors had to absorb during the week that was.

Here are the week's market-moving headlines.

Monday, 19 October 2026

• Signs and portents for the U.S. economy:
• Oil slips from five-month high with Hormuz transits in focus
• Global food inflation is expected to intensify as supply shocks pile up
• Fed minions upset AI boom is keeping U.S. economy growing:
• Fed sees AI boom adding to inflation headache, but others may pay for the medicine
• Bigger domestic trouble, export growth developing in China:
• China's economic growth picks up as exports boom, consumers balk
• China set to leave benchmark lending rates unchanged for 17th month
• BOJ minions admit Japan's inflation is almost where they want it, are expected to use it to justify more rate hikes:
• BOJ chief says underlying inflation 'quite close' to price goal
• BOJ may need to tighten faster if inflation beats forecast, IMF says
• S&P 500, Nasdaq advance ahead of mega-cap companies’ earnings
• Nasdaq climbs as chip and AI-linked stocks bounce back

Tuesday, 20 October 2026

• Signs and portents for the U.S. economy:
• Housing is flashing warning signs just as the Fed weighs more interest rate hikes
• September data shows housing market in a deep freeze
• US single-family housing starts plunge; building permits hit 3-1/2-year low
• China's September US soybean imports rebound from zero a year earlier, data shows
• Brent hits five-month high as attacks on ships, Saudi sites fuel supply worries
• AI data center projects boost US warehouse demand and rents, real estate company JLL says
• Economists expect Fed minions to sit on their hands in October 2026:
• Fed to skip October but raise rates again in December, nearly all economists say
• Smaller stimulus, bigger trouble developing in China:
• China's push to bolster social insurance schemes draws online backlash
• China leaves loan rates steady for 17th consecutive month
• China's off-kilter tech economy is by design
• BOJ minions see more rate hikes ahead as they boost inflation forecast and wage-price inflation spiral gets going:
• Bank of Japan may raise inflation forecast, stand pat on rates, sources say
• Japan shifting to wage-driven inflation phase, finance minister says
• Bank of Japan's Himino signals readiness to raise borrowing costs
• Growth signs developing in Eurozone:
• Europe's earnings boom widens beyond energy and AI
• Dow outperforms as Wall Street rises, healthcare stocks lead gains
• Trading Day: Oil reversal lifts spirits

Wednesday, 21 October 2026

• Signs and portents for the U.S. economy:
• Oil prices steady as investors weigh geopolitics, lower US stockpiles
• US aims to loan about a third of heating oil reserve in bid to tame prices
• Trump says companies should pay 'dividend' to communities to make data centers popular
• Bigger trouble, higher interest rates developing in Japan:
• Japan exports rise 16.7% in September as AI chip demand powers trade
• Japan exports post huge miss in September as growth slows to 16.7%
• BOJ to raise rates to 1.50% in December, sticking to quarterly pace: Reuters poll
• Strange economic metaphor developing in Eurozone:
• Nvidia's Huang hails Europe's AI potential, flanked by robot ducks
• ECB says AI, greener economy help euro zone weather energy shock
• Bigger trouble still developing in Eurozone:
• Euro zone bond yields rise as French borrowing costs hit 24-year high
• French 10-year bond yields hit 5%, highest since 2002
• Bond selloff revives debate about euro zone banks' 'doom loop'
• Nasdaq leads Wall Street gains as SpaceX, Super Micro boost AI sentiment
• Wall Street closes higher; SpaceX, Tesla push markets up

Thursday, 22 October 2026

• Signs and portents for the U.S. economy:
• US banks detect unauthorized AI agents in customer accounts, Axios reports
• Millions of hacking attempts as companies and governments race to patch PHP flaws
• Why governments pulled websites offline over the decades-old PHP programming language
• Companies cutting jobs as investments shift toward AI
• Oil rises as US orders diplomats to leave Saudi Arabia amid escalating tensions
• From groceries to home loans, high oil prices permeate daily life
• US weekly jobless claims near 57-year lows, underscore labor market stability
• Former Fed minion says US economy isn't running too hot:
• The economy is not overheating, says former Dallas Fed President Robert Kaplan
• Bigger real estate losses developing in China:
• China Evergrande liquidators recover 1% of debt claims after 2-1/2 years
• BOJ minions worrying less about propping up Japan's currency, see other reasons to keep hiking Japan's interest rates:
• Yen set for biggest rally in a month as investors seek safe havens
• Strength in Japanese loan demand expected to leave scope for more BOJ hikes
• Bigger trouble developing in Eurozone, ECB minions want to do away with national economies within Eurozone:
• French debt risk premium reaches euro zone sovereign crisis levels
• ECB's Santos Pereira pushes for deeper EU integration
• Nasdaq, S&P decline as AI spending worries weaken investor sentiment, U.S. stocks suffer
• S&P 500, Nasdaq end sharply lower as revived AI doubts ignite tech selloff
• Meta shares slide, default insurance hits record as AI spending alarms investors
• Gold falls to 11-week low; silver slumps to lowest close this year

Friday, 23 October 2026

• Signs and portents for the U.S. economy:
• US business activity cools in October; strong demand fueling price pressures
• Oil prices jump $3 on Houthi attacks, oil spill, highest settlement since April
• Trump says Canada 'working very hard' to make a deal with US
• Trump removes 50% tariffs on Canadian products to try to boost to Maine companies
• Canadian jet maker Bombardier says it plans new $270 million US investment
• Bigger trouble, stimulus developing in China:
• China urges government agencies to mitigate AI job displacement
• China calls on oil, gas firms to boost output, build strategic supply bases
• BOJ minions getting excited to hike interest rates again as bigger trouble develops in Japan:
• Japan's core inflation exceeds BOJ target, cements near-term rate hike chance
• Japan manufacturing growth slows to 7-month low in October, PMI shows
• Bigger trouble developing in Eurozone:
• Euro zone growth slows to 4-month low amid rising costs and French strife, survey shows
• French bond pain puts euro zone's weak links on notice
• EU vows to fix 'China Shock 2.0' via talks with Beijing
• S&P 500 ends lower for week as AI spending concerns and rising oil prices weigh
• Wall Street closes lower to end rocky week
• Gold settles below $4,000 after steepest weekly loss in nearly five months

The Atlanta Fed's GDPNow tool's projection of real GDP growth for the U.S. economy in 2026-Q3 dipped 0.1% to 3.1% this week. After the BEA releases its initial estimate of GDP for 2026-Q3 on 29 October 2026, the GDPNow tool will shift toward projecting 2026-Q4's real GDP growth rate.

Image credit: Microsoft Copilot Designer. Prompt: "An editorial cartoon of a Wall Street bull dressed as a batter for the Milwaukee Brewers and a bear dressed as a catcher for the Tampa Bay Rays who are angry with a Federal Reserve official dressed like an umpire who is being vague about where the Fed's strike zone is for determining how to set interest rates."

The 2026 World Series for Major League Baseball gets underway today. The National League champion Milwaukee Brewers will host the American League champion Tampa Bay Rays in the first game of the best-of-seven series that will determine the ultimate champion of 2026 MLB season.

Both teams deserve to compete in this year's fall classic. There are 30 teams in Major League Baseball, 12 of which were eligible to compete for the world title at the end of the 2026 season. Of those teams, the Brewers and Rays had the best win-loss records in their respective leagues. They beat out the other ten teams to earn their slot in the World Series, so there's no question that the winningest teams in both leagues are playing for 2026's world championship.

Both teams share an unusual characteristic in the modern era of baseball playoffs. The payrolls of both teams fall well below the median of the teams that made it to the postseason.

Visual Capitalist's Jenna Ross explores that unique outcome in the following infographic:

The Milwaukee Brewers' payroll ranked 19th overall in the major leagues, while the Tampa Bay Rays ranked 25th out of 30 teams. Which is especially remarkable because if you were to try to predict which teams would even make it to the MLB playoffs based on how much each team pays its players, you wouldn't pick either to make it to the playoffs, much less the World Series.

In Ross' infographic, the length of the baseball bats indicate each team's payroll, while the blue-colored bats represent the teams that reached the playoffs and the red-colored bats represent the teams that didn't make it. Of the teams with the ten highest payrolls in 2026, eight made it to the postseason.

There's no question that money matters in a team's success, with the sport's most highly paid players also among its best players who can win enough games to make it possible for their teams to qualify for the playoffs. Low-paying teams that make the playoffs are the anomalies in baseball's modern era.

And yet, the final two teams competing for professional baseball's top title in 2026 are low-paying anomalies.

In the early 2000s, Oakland Athletics' general manager Billy Beane found success in the regular season by identifying undervalued but highly talented players, leading to the A's multiple appearances in baseball's postseason despite having among the lowest payrolls in sports. But his teams never made it to the World Series, often because randomness and bad luck would derail them. As he described it, "My s*** doesn’t work in the playoffs.”

Over twenty years later, new generations of general managers have flipped Billy Beane's script for success. They've demonstrated that assembling teams of talented players by offering them high pay can reliably get them into the playoffs. Even so, it doesn't guarantee they'll win the world championship. The same uncontrollable and random factors that derailed Billy Beane's teams' after getting into the playoffs are afflicting them as well.

It's a relief to know the curse of Billy Beane is still alive and well in baseball. Because how boring would baseball be if the thing that really decides who will win the World Series each year was decided before the season even began.

Reference

Jenna Ross. Does Spending More Help MLB Teams Make the Playoffs? Visual Capitalist. [Webp image]. 19 October 2026.

Did you know that...

• if you rent, you're paying the property owner's income and property taxes?
• if you buy food, you're paying a farmer's income and property taxes?
• if you fly, you're paying the airline's income taxes, payroll taxes, and property taxes? And also the airline employees' income taxes and payroll taxes?
• if you buy a product made outside the country, you're paying an importer's tariffs and customs duties? In addition to their income and property taxes?
• if you buy a product, you're paying the maker's income and property taxes?
• if you borrow money, you're paying your lender's income and property taxes?

It would be more accurate to say you're paying a portion of the other party's taxes for each of these items and not all their taxes, but you get the idea.

Exit question: Have you paid your fair share of their taxes?

Image credit: Microsoft Copilot Designer. Prompt: "An editorial cartoon of a giant iceberg labeled 'Hidden Taxes.' Above the water, only a tiny tip is visible and labeled 'Sales Tax.' Below the waterline is a massive submerged iceberg labeled with: 'Business Income Tax,' 'Property Tax,' 'Payroll Tax,' 'Regulatory Costs,' 'Licensing Fees,' 'Import Duties,' and 'Fuel Taxes.' In the foreground, a family at a grocery checkout studies a receipt and notices only the small sales tax line. Arrows from the hidden underwater taxes flow upward into grocery price tags and consumer goods. Caption: The tax you see is often the smallest one you pay."

The U.S. government's 2026 fiscal year came to an end on 30 September 2026. On that date, after tallying up the entire the national debt to the penny, the federal government's total public debt outstanding totaled $40,171,825,101,340.31.

Compared to a year earlier, the national debt increased by 6.7%, or about $2.532 trillion, above where it stood on 30 September 2025.

To whom do you suppose the federal government owes all that money?

Wonder no more, because here's the basic breakdown! The following chart provides a first estimate of who the U.S. government's biggest creditors are at the end of its 2026 fiscal year, along with the portion of the $40.172 trillion national debt they are owed.

This is a first estimate because it will take about six more months before the portion of the national debt that is owed to foreign interests is properly allocated to the nations to whom it is owed. Right now, the U.S. Treasury Department knows the total amount of what it owes to those foreign interests, but this initial data indicates the nations where that debt is held, not which foreign institutions lent the money.

It will be months before all the numbers for 2026 are finalized. This chart presents a first estimate of who owns the U.S. national debt, which should be within a few tenths of a percent for most of the major holders of debt securities issued by the U.S. government.

That said, let's get to the overall picture of to whom the U.S. government owes the most money....

The Overall Picture

76.8% of the national debt is owed to U.S.-based institutions and individuals. 23.2% is owed to foreign interests, which is the lowest share since 2023's 22.9% foreign ownership. Foreign ownership of the national debt has been declining since 2014 when it accounted for 34% of the total national debt.

The U.S. Federal Reserve is once again the U.S. government's single largest creditor holding U.S. government-issued debt securities worth 11.4% of the U.S. government's entire total public debt outstanding, which increased from 11.2% a year earlier. The Fed owns 22% of all U.S. government-issued debt securities held by U.S.-based institutions and individuals by itself.

Grouping U.S. individuals and institutions such as banks, insurance companies, investment funds, corporations, and individuals together, we find they collectively increased their share of the national debt from 50.4% in 2024 to 51.7% in 2026.

Three major U.S. government-controlled funds make up the balance of the money owed by the U.S. government to U.S.-based entities. Social Security's Old Age and Survivors' Insurance Trust Fund accounts for the largest chunk of this debt, dropping from 6.4 This decline coincides with the ongoing depletion of its Old Age and Survivors Insurance trust fund, which has run in the red in every year since 2009.

The combined share of the U.S. national debt held by the government's military (5.4%) and civilian (3.0%) employee retirement trust funds grew from 7.7% to 8.4% of the total national debt from 2025 to 2026.

Foreign Holdings

The share of the national debt held by Japan and China, the two largest foreign holders of U.S. government-issued debt securities, declined. Japan's share fell from 3.1% to 2.7%, while China and Hong Kong's combined share dipped from 2.6% to 2.1% between 2025 and 2026.

The major international banking centers of the U.K. and Belgium, Ireland, and Luxembourg saw their reported share of U.S. government-issued debt increase from a combined 5.5% to 6.0% year-over-year. Meanwhile, all other foreign creditors saw their share of ownership of the U.S. national debt decline from 13.2% to 12.4%.

About the Data

The U.S. government's total public debt outstanding is the value recorded for 30 September 2026, the final day of the government's 2026 fiscal year, which also applies for the portion of the national debt held by the government-operated trust funds for Social Security, military and civilian government employees. Data for foreign holdings is based on estimates through August 2026 that were available on 20 October 2026. The Federal Reserve's holdings are those recorded on 30 September 2026.