The price of an iconic can of Campbell's Condensed Tomato Soup remained largely stable during the past three months. The trailing twelve month average unit price for the 10.75 fluid ounce can held steady at $1.28. That's the same average price per can as we recorded in July 2024.

Unfortunately, outside of a brief example at Meijer's in September 2024 when the price was marked down to a dollar per can, we're finding few notable sales of Campbell's tomato soup as soup season in the United States gets under way. Prices are substantially higher than they were four years earlier and are nearly double what they were in 2010.

For this edition of our ongoing series on Campbell's Tomato Soup prices, we find that Meijer's sale has ended with the price returning to its regular $1.35 per can level. Here's the rundown of prices and how they've changed since July 2024 from our survey of ten major grocery-selling retailers across the U.S.

• Walmart: $1.26/each, unchanged
• Amazon: $1.99/each, increase of $0.70 (+54.3%)
• Kroger: $1.39/each, unchanged
• Walgreens: $1.99/each, unchanged
• Target: $1.39/each, unchanged
• CVS: $2.49/each, unchanged
• Albertsons: $1.49/each, decrease of $0.20 (-11.8%)
• Food Lion: $1.25/each, unchanged
• H-E-B: $1.31/each, unchanged
• Meijer: $1.35/each, unchanged

The following chart shows how the price of a can of Campbell's Tomato Soup has evolved during the 2000s:

Perhaps the biggest news from the Campbell Soup Company (NYSE: CPB) since our last update is the revelation of its plan to remove "Soup" from the company's name! Here's the story from 11 September 2024:

Campbell Soup Co. announced its intention to change its name at an annual meeting of investors on Tuesday. The 155-year-old food seller, which is most famous for its namesake canned soups, says it would now like to be known as Campbell’s Co.

CEO Mark Clouse said in a statement that this “subtle yet important change” will retain the company’s iconic name “while better reflecting the full breadth” of its portfolio today.

Campbell hasn’t been exclusive to the soup business for some time. The company also owns brands like Prego sauce and Goldfish crackers — and completed a $2.7 billion acquisition of Sovos Brands, the maker of Rao’s pasta sauces, just earlier this year.

Campbell’s roots date back to 1869, as a modest operation out of New Jersey that later grew. The current Campbell Soup name was adopted in 1922, according to the company’s website.

Since the news article omits it, here's the link to the company's website, which identifies the name "Campbell Soup Company" being used in November 1922. Here's a public domain image of 1920's era advertising for Campbell's Tomato Soup that shows it being used on the can:

That's quite different from the company name that appeared on the label applied to the first cans of Campbell's Condensed Tomato Soup when it was introduced in 1897. We should also note the label on the Joseph Campbell Preserve Co.'s cans of soup was itself very different, featuring colors more at home with the arrival of soup season than the much more familiar red and white design the company rolled out in 1898.

Image credits: A can of tomato soup on a yellow background photo by Anastasiya Badun on Unsplash. The public domain image of the vintage 1920's era advertisement for Campbell's Tomato Soup was posted online by Halloween HJB on Flickr. The original 1897 label for Campbell's original condensed tomato soup cans is likewise in the public domain and was featured at Modern Farmer in an article about the company's role in developing its own unique tomatoes.

The S&P 500 (Index: SPX) reached a new height to mark the end of the second week of October 2024. The index closed at a new all time record high of 5,815.03 on Friday, 11 October 2024, a 1.1% increase over where it closed in the previous week.

Most of that week-over-week gain came on Friday as both JP Morgan Chase (NYSE: JPM) and Bank of New York (NYSE: BNY), as both banks beat profit estimates, which was unexpected news.

Aside from that surprise, the rest of the week was characterized by a lot of chatter by Federal Reserve officials, who aimed to set expectations for smaller rate cuts in the remaining months of 2024.

How the rest of earnings season plays out remains to be seen, but this week, it's good earnings news that has Wall Street bulls considering the prospect of higher highs in the quarter ahead. Which coincidentally, is what the latest update of the alternative futures chart projects lies ahead during this quarter.

For now, the trajectory of the S&P 500 lies within the redzone forecast range we added several weeks ago, which we expect to continue until it runs out in three weeks.

There was more information for investors to absorb during the week that was, here's our summary of its market moving headlines.

Monday, 7 October 2024

• Signs and portents for the U.S. economy:
• Oil pares gains after strongest weekly rise in over a year
• Fed minions say more rate cuts ahead are "appropriate":
• Fed's Williams says appropriate again to cut rates 'over time', FT reports
• Fed's Musalem argues for more rate cuts, says data to drive easings
• Bigger stimulus getting some traction in China:
• China home sales rise after stimulus measures, state media says
• BOK minions gearing up for a rate cut:
• Bank of Korea to kick off easing cycle with 25 bps cut on October 11: Reuters poll
• BOJ minions rate hikes expected to cause little damage Japanese economy:
• Fall in Japan's real wages, spending likely just minor bump for further BOJ hikes
• ECB minions getting excited to cut Eurozone interest rates again:
• ECB will probably cut rates in Oct on risk of too low inflation: Villeroy
• Bundesbank's Nagel says he is open to another ECB rate cut
• Nasdaq, S&P, and Dow concluded lower as geopolitical tensions rise and CPI data lurks
• Wall Street indexes slip with interest rates, Middle East in focus
• How a rates rethink after strong US jobs data could shake up markets

Tuesday, 8 October 2024

• Signs and portents for the U.S. economy:
• Crude prices slide over 4% on possible Hezbollah-Israel ceasefire
• EIA slashes US, global oil demand forecasts for 2025
• US bank profits to shrink on interest income, focus shifts to Fed cuts
• US candy companies favor gummies, licorice over pricey Halloween chocolates
• Fed minions see cooling U.S. job market, more rate cuts ahead:
• US jobs market cooling but still resilient, Fed's Kugler says
• Fed's Kugler makes case for more rate cuts if inflation keeps easing
• Fed's Collins expects more rate cuts amid confidence inflation is easing
• Fed's Bostic says labor market slowing but not slow, jobs gains 'robust'
• Bigger trouble developing in China after expected stimulus isn't delivered:
• China's stocks rally fizzles as stimulus offer disappoints
• Hong Kong Crashes As China's Stimulus Frenzy Ends With A Bang
• ECB minions expected to deliver two Eurozone rate cuts in remainder of 2024:
• ECB to cut rates by 25bps in both Oct and Dec as euro zone economy wobbles: Reuters poll
• S&P, Nasdaq end up 1%, Dow up as oil slides on China stimulus letdown, Middle East unease
• US-listed shares of Chinese firms slide as stimulus optimism ebbs

Wednesday, 9 October 2024

• Signs and portents for the U.S. economy:
• Oil slips as strong supply counters Middle East and hurricane risk
• US 30-year mortgage rate jumps to 6.36%, biggest weekly gain in 15 months
• Fed minions say their rate cuts are about propping up job market, expect to need to deliver more:
• A 'substantial majority' of Fed favored large cut in Sept, minutes show
• FOMC Minutes Show Fed Considerably More Divided Over Size Of Rate Cut
• Fed Vice Chair Jefferson: rate cut aimed at keeping US job market strong
• Fed Vice Chair Jefferson: Sept rate cut was 'timely'
• Fed's Collins expects more rate cuts amid confidence inflation is easing
• Fed's Daly sees one or two more interest rate cuts this year
• Fed's Logan calls for 'gradual' rate cuts, says 'should not rush'
• Fed's Collins expects more rate cuts amid confidence inflation is easing
• Not big enough stimulus developing in China:
• China's runaway rally stutters; commodities and global shares subdued
• China September bank lending set to rise on policy support
• ECB minions getting excited to Eurozone interest rates again, get data to contradict their desire:
• ECB policymakers press case for October rate cut
• German exports rise in August, defying expectations of decline
• S&P ends at record high, Dow up 1% after Fed minutes show majority backed 50bp rate cut
• Wider US deficits, inflationary trade policies threaten bond outlook, says PIMCO

Thursday, 10 October 2024

• Signs and portents for the U.S. economy:
• September CPI rises more than expected, indicating inflation risks remain
• 2 Warm Sept CPI inflation chills outlook for dovish Fed
• Core Producer Price Inflation Hotter Than Expected; Food Costs Surge
• Oil prices jump 4% on US storm and Israel-Iran fears
• Domino's Pizza posts smaller-than-expected rise in comparable sales as demand stutters
• US weekly jobless claims surge amid Hurricane Helene distortions
• Fed minions say never mind inflation running hot, they're on course for more rate cuts:
• Fed on track for gradual rate cuts ahead, officials signal
• Fed's Williams reckons more rate cuts lie ahead, amid solid economy
• Fed's Goolsbee sees gradual policy rate cuts over next 12-18 months
• Bigger trouble developing in China:
• China's exports likely slowed further in September as global demand cools
• BOJ minions claim they'll hike rates when and if they become more confident:
• BOJ may not be as dovish as Ueda's cautious rhetoric suggests
• BOJ will hike rates if it has more confidence in forecasts, says deputy governor Himino
• BOK kicks off series of anticipated rate cuts:
• South Korea's central bank makes first rate cut, flags room for more
• S&P, Dow, Nasdaq fluctuate as CPI warms, jobless claims come in hotter than expected

Friday, 11 October 2024

• Signs and portents for the U.S. economy:
• Oil settles down on Florida fuel demand worries, Mideast risk drives weekly gains
• Fed minions expected to deliver two quarter point rate cuts in months ahead:
• Traders keep bets on 25 basis point Fed rate cuts in November, December
• S&P, Dow close at record highs as market enters year two of bull run; Nasdaq rises
• S&P 500, Dow hit records, boosted by bank earnings surprise
• JPMorgan profit beats estimates on investment-banking strength, shares jump
• BNY beats Q3 profit estimates as assets under custody and administration top $50 trillion

The CME Group's FedWatch Tool continues to project a quarter-point rate cut at the Fed's upcoming 7 November 2024 meeting. Afterward, the FedWatch tool anticipates that the Fed will continue a series of quarter point rate cuts at six-to-twelve-week intervals well into 2025.

The Atlanta Fed's GDPNow tool's projection of the real GDP growth rate for the current quarter of 2024-Q3 increased to +3.3% from the previous week's forecast of +2.5% growth.

Image credit: Microsoft Copilot Designer. Prompt: "An editorial cartoon of a Wall Street bull standing on a small peak looking out at an even higher peak in the distance"

Through August 2024, the cost of eating out at establishments that provide full service meals and snacks has risen 23% since January 2021.

In fact, when you go out to a restaurant today, it's not uncommon to see things like $16 dollar BLT sandwiches on the menu. How is it possible that two slices of toasted bread, a couple strips of bacon, several leaves of lettuce, and one or two tomato slices and some mayonnaise possibly cost so much?

The short answer is because of the inflation unleashed in early 2021. That inflation has driven up the costs of everything it takes to provide you as a customer with a BLT sandwich, including rents, utilities, and labor - it's not just the cost of food itself that has gone up.

Brian Will is a restaurant owner in the north Atlanta metropolitan area. In the following TikTok video, he lays out the percentages and costs of doing business that dictate why he has to charge for a BLT sandwich:

@dropoutmm Restaurant food is expensive #restaurantlife #foodcost #restaurantindustry #restaurant #businessowner #businesscoach ♬ original sound - The Dropout Multimillionaire

We thought the numbers he provided, including the average number of BLT sandwiches that his restaurant must sell per day just to break even, made for some interesting math. We've built the following tool to convert the numbers he throws out into the math behind them, but you're more than welcome to change the numbers to consider a multitude of other scenarios. If you're accessing this article on a site that republishes our RSS news feed, you may need to click through to our site to access a working version.

The default values are mostly those given by Will for his restaurant, which almost certainly involve some rounding. We tweaked the value of the unit cost of the food to roughly match what it would take for the restaurant to break even, assuming an average of 257 BLT sandwiches at $16 each per day. Of course, the restaurant's net income represents the income that Will and his partners earn through their ownership and management of the business. If they're just breaking even, with a net income of $0, they can't afford to be in business and the restaurant will shut down.

If they do have a positive net income, say from selling an average of 300 BLT sandwiches per day instead of just 257 to break even, they're going to have to pay income taxes on it, which is why we added that additional element to the tool.

There's one other aspect to consider as well. Today's inflated prices for BLT sandwiches and every other menu item on American restaurant menus are changing the way people eat, with fewer people willing to eat out because of the higher prices they would have to pay. The effect of inflation on supply and demand has a negative effect on the restaurant industry. If they could count on selling more sandwiches every day, they could sell them for a lower price, but the higher costs for everything that goes into making a sandwich to be served at a restaurant have made that marketing strategy much more risky.

If the risk of making the wrong decision in this real world scenario means going out of business, especially if you expect inflation to continue making everything more costly, could you as a business owner even afford to try?

Image credit: Photo by David Trinks on Unsplash.

When is the absolute worst time to take a hit to your retirement savings?

Almost by definition, it has to be after you've retired. If it happened before you were planning to retire, you would have the option to postpone your retirement date, giving yourself additional time to add to your retirement savings.

But that's not something you can do after you've retired. Certainly not easily. After you've retired, you can reasonably expect your working days are behind you.

So when after you've retired would be the the worst possible time to experience a sudden decline in the value of your retirement savings?

That question was answered by Schwab's investment analysts, who compared two specific scenarios. In the first scenario, an individual who retired experienced a negative 15% annual reduction in the value of their retirement accounts over a two year period, starting immediately after retiring. The second scenario considered the impact an identical reduction would have if it occurred some ten years into retirement, when presumably the retiree would have no real option to rejoin the ranks of the employed.

They created the following chart to visualize the relative impact of this hypothetical event:

Here are the assumptions behind the visual analysis:

• Both hypothetical investors started with $1 million in their retirement savings.
• Dividends and interest are reinvested.
• The effects of taxes and fees on the retirement savings values are not considered.
• The hypothetical investors withdrew $50,000 from their accounts in the first year, then increased their withdrawals by two percent a year to account for inflation.
• Outside of the 15% annualized reductions during the years of decline, the value of the hypothetical investments grow at an annualized rate of 6% a year.

The chart confirms the worst case scenario is the one when misfortune hits at the very beginning. A financial calamity that strikes then has the capability to permanently reduce your retirement nest egg, making it likely it will run out of funds while you're still alive.

Assuming you make no changes to how much you withdraw each year. Schwab's analysts explain why getting hit early in retirement can be so damaging:

At issue here is a phenomenon known as sequence-of-returns risk. "Sequence" refers to the fact that the order and timing of poor investment returns can have a big impact on how long your retirement savings last.

After all, a retirement portfolio generally isn't just a lump of cash in a savings account that you draw inexorably down to zero. It also includes a mix of investments that can provide both income and growth over time. Ideally, the growth will replenish at least a portion of what you take out, making your withdrawals more sustainable over the length of the retirement you've envisioned.

However, a major drop in the early years of retirement can scramble this picture. When you tap into your portfolio as it's losing value, you have to sell more investments to raise a set amount of cash. Not only does that drain your savings more quickly, but it also leaves you with fewer assets that can generate growth and returns during potential future recoveries.

In contrast, if a decline occurs later in your retirement, you may not need your portfolio to last as long or continue growing to fund a long retirement, so you may be in much better shape to fund withdrawals.

Please do click through to read the whole article, because Schwab's analysts also discuss the steps that can be taken after financial disaster strikes to mitigate its impact. We will take their ideas and others on in future discussions.

The climbing limo method of forecasting future GDP in the United States projects the nation's economic output in the third quarter of 2024 will be within a few percent points of $29.6 trillion.

The U.S. Bureau of Economic analysis released a pretty extensive set of revisions for its GDP data going back to January 2019, which changed the climbing limo's forecast for what non-inflation adjusted GDP will be in 2024-Q3. The new forecast is nearly one percent higher than the original forecast for the quarter.

The climbing limo's latest projections based on the revised data can be seen in the following chart, which also adds the first projection for how large the non-inflation adjusted economy will be in 2025-Q1.

The climbing limo method is a very simple forecasting technique that projects the level of GDP some three quarters into the future using the nominal GDP figures from five quarters and three quarters before that point in time. As such, its forecast represents the momentum of the U.S. economy recorded between the two data points it uses. Deviations between the actual trajectory of GDP and the forecast tells how the momentum of the U.S. economy has changed, which provides useful information even when the differences between forecast and actual values are large.

References

U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. National Income and Product Accounts. Table 1.1.5. Gross Domestic Product. [Online Database]. Accessed 4 October 2024.

Political Calculations. Forecasting GDP Using the Climbing Limo. [Online Tool]. 10 May 2005.

Image Credit: Microsoft Copilot Designer. Prompt: "A simple sketch of a limousine driving uphill toward the right side of a rising zig zag line chart".