Unexpectedly Intriguing!
20 August 2012

First, the good news! After several months of pacing near recessionary levels, the value of U.S. exports to China kicked up to double digit levels in May and June of 2012. That increase suggests that China's economy is growing more strongly for the first time since that nation effectively entered into recession in December 2011.

Annualized Growth Rates of US-China Trade, January 1985 through June 2012

The bad news is that the U.S. economy weakened in both May and June 2012, with the value of U.S. imports from China falling back to the single-digit levels that are consistent with near-recessionary conditions, as once again, international trade data confirms the scenario we first forecast more than a year ago.

We continue to anticipate that this will be a short-lived condition as the U.S. economy is likely to grow more strongly in the third quarter of 2012 before falling back toward those near-recessionary levels later in the year. At least, if the expected level of future quarterly cash dividend payments for the S&P 500 is any indication (and yes, they are!)

And now you know what to expect through the rest of this year!

Labels: , ,

About Political Calculations

Welcome to the blogosphere's toolchest! Here, unlike other blogs dedicated to analyzing current events, we create easy-to-use, simple tools to do the math related to them so you can get in on the action too! If you would like to learn more about these tools, or if you would like to contribute ideas to develop for this blog, please e-mail us at:

ironman at politicalcalculations

Thanks in advance!

Recent Posts

Indices, Futures, and Bonds

Closing values for previous trading day.

Most Popular Posts
Quick Index

Site Data

This site is primarily powered by:

This page is powered by Blogger. Isn't yours?

CSS Validation

Valid CSS!

RSS Site Feed

AddThis Feed Button


The tools on this site are built using JavaScript. If you would like to learn more, one of the best free resources on the web is available at W3Schools.com.

Other Cool Resources

Blog Roll

Market Links

Useful Election Data
Charities We Support
Shopping Guides
Recommended Reading
Recently Shopped

Seeking Alpha Certified