Unexpectedly Intriguing!
21 August 2015

On 20 August 2015, the period of order that had existed in the U.S. stock market since 4 August 2011 broke down. Statistically speaking that is!

S&P 500 vs Trailing Year Dividends per Share, 30 June 2011 to 20 August 2015, with Period of Order lasting beginning on 4 August 2011 and ending on 20 August 2015

Of course, that outcome should come as no surprise to our readers. Speaking of which, the animated image below compares our forecast chart that we previously featured back on 3 August 2015 and again on 10 August 2015 with what the most recent version of the chart looks like today.

Animated Chart: S&P 500 - Expected Alternate Futures, 2015-Q3 - Rebaselined Model - Snapshots 31 July 2015, 7 August 2015 and 20 August 2015

Stock prices are, after all, just a simple quantum kinematics problem, where all you have to know to anticipate where they're going is approximately how far forward in time that investors are looking, their future expectations for dividends at that future point of time, where stock prices were previously, and the typical volatility for daily stock prices!...

Doing all that is, as we like to say, complex, but not difficult. Especially with nearly optimal conditions for this kind of forecasting.

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