Unexpectedly Intriguing!
April 23, 2018

Earnings reporting season for 2018-Q2 is now underway in the U.S. stock market. And where the S&P 500 is concerned, the arrival of earnings season appears to have coincided with a shift in how far investors are looking into to the future, with investors shifting the majority of their forward-looking attention away from the distant future quarter of 2019-Q1 back toward the current quarter of 2018-Q2.

Alternative Futures - S&P 500 - 2018Q1 - Standard Model - Snapshot on 20 April 2018

Or at least, that's what the actual trajectory of the S&P 500 in Week 3 of April 2018 is suggesting with respect to where our dividend futures-based model would set the level of stock prices after factoring in how far ahead in time investors are looking. Overall, it appears that investors are splitting their forward-looking focus between 2018-Q2 and 2019-Q1, with 2018-Q2 being slightly favored through the end of Week 3 of April 2018.

As for the news of the week that was, there was an increase in the amount of noise being generated by the Fed's minions....

Monday, 16 April 2018
Tuesday, 17 April 2018
Wednesday, 18 April 2018
Thursday, 19 April 2018
Friday, 20 April 2018

Elsewhere, Barry Ritholtz found that the number of the week's positives outweighed the negatives for the U.S. economy and markets in the third week of April 2018.

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