Unexpectedly Intriguing!
November 8, 2018

2018 has been a big year for outsized stock price movements in the S&P 500 (Index: SPX)! It was just earlier this week that we marked the end of the index' third Lévy flight event in 2018, which had begun when investors suddenly shifted their forward-looking focus away from the future quarter of 2019-Q1 toward the more distant-future quarter of 2019-Q3. And now, in just the span of seven trading days, investors appear to have fully returned their attention to 2019-Q1, with the market's post-midterm election reaction marking the end of a fourth Lévy flight for the S&P 500 in 2018.

With the end of that new Lévy flight, we can now draw a new redzone forecast to project where the S&P 500 will go over the next month, where we assume that investors will sustain their focus on the near-term future of 2019-Q1 and the expectations for dividends associated with it from 7 November 2018 through 7 December 2018, which you can see in the latest update to our alternative futures spaghetti forecast chart.

Alternative Futures - S&P 500 - 2018Q2 - Standard Model with Redzone Forecast from 7 November 2018 through 7 December 2018 - Snapshot on 07 November 2018

Given the volatile nature of the stock market in 2018, it's possible that investors may shift their attention once again back toward 2019-Q3 (or 2019-Q4) and send stock prices falling again, or alternatively, to 2018-Q4 or 2019-Q2, either of which would coincide with a strong rally in the stock market, so that will be something to watch out for during the next month. If we're right regarding the future trajectory for the S&P 500 however, we won't see much in the way of interesting behavior during the next 30 calendar days, where we define "interesting" as being when the S&P changes in value by more than two percent from one trading day's closing value to the next.

We'll catch up with the market-moving news headlines in our regular Monday update to our ongoing S&P 500 Chaos series of stock price analysis. Until then, if you want to find out more about our prediction accuracy whenever we've presented a red-zone forecast for the S&P 500, please see our track record tally from March 2018 and, just for fun, also check out where we predicted where the floor would be for the S&P 500's third Lévy flight event of 2018 compared with where the index actually went during the time it ran. If any of that intrigues you, here's a discussion of how we're able to do it.

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