Unexpectedly Intriguing!
April 2, 2020

The negative effects of the global coronavirus pandemic breaking out in China has begun to become visible in the trade data between the U.S. and China, with the combined value of all goods imported and exported between the two nations plunging in February 2020 by $12 billion below the level recorded a year earlier in February 2019.

Combined Value of U.S. Exports to China and Imports from China, January 2008 - February 2020

That change bucks expectations of a rising volume of trade starting in February 2020 that should have resulted from the signing of the 'Phase 1' trade deal between the U.S. and China in January 2020. In the chart above, we've projected a counterfactual based on the recovery of trade between the U.S. and China following its bottom during the Great Recession as measured by its trailing twelve month average, which should provide a reasonable basis for assessing the impact of the coronavirus pandemic on U.S.-China trade.

Over time, the cumulative gap between the trailing year average of trade between the U.S. and China and the counterfactual will provide an indication of the full extent to which trade between the two nations has been affected because of the pandemic and its aftermath. In the first month, the cumulative gap is $16.9 billion, which may be expected to grow considerably in the months ahead.

References

Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. China / U.S. Foreign Exchange Rate. G.5 Foreign Exchange Rates. Accessed 2 April 2020.

U.S. Census Bureau. Trade in Goods with China. Accessed 2 April 2020.

Labels: , ,

About Political Calculations

Welcome to the blogosphere's toolchest! Here, unlike other blogs dedicated to analyzing current events, we create easy-to-use, simple tools to do the math related to them so you can get in on the action too! If you would like to learn more about these tools, or if you would like to contribute ideas to develop for this blog, please e-mail us at:

ironman at politicalcalculations.com

Thanks in advance!

Recent Posts

Stock Charts and News

Most Popular Posts
Quick Index

Site Data

This site is primarily powered by:

This page is powered by Blogger. Isn't yours?

CSS Validation

Valid CSS!

RSS Site Feed

AddThis Feed Button

JavaScript

The tools on this site are built using JavaScript. If you would like to learn more, one of the best free resources on the web is available at W3Schools.com.

Other Cool Resources

Blog Roll

Market Links

Useful Election Data
Charities We Support
Shopping Guides
Recommended Reading
Recently Shopped

Seeking Alpha Certified

Archives
Legal Disclaimer

Materials on this website are published by Political Calculations to provide visitors with free information and insights regarding the incentives created by the laws and policies described. However, this website is not designed for the purpose of providing legal, medical or financial advice to individuals. Visitors should not rely upon information on this website as a substitute for personal legal, medical or financial advice. While we make every effort to provide accurate website information, laws can change and inaccuracies happen despite our best efforts. If you have an individual problem, you should seek advice from a licensed professional in your state, i.e., by a competent authority with specialized knowledge who can apply it to the particular circumstances of your case.