Motio Research's initial estimate of U.S. median household income in August 2025 is $86,030. This figure is $1,770 (2.1%) higher than the firm's initial estimate of median household income of $84,260 in July 2025.
The firm develops its estimates using income data collected by the U.S. Census Bureau through its monthly Current Population Survey. This survey is conducted during the week containing the 12th day of the month following the month in which its data applies. Motio Research analyzes the survey data and accounts for the effects of seasonality and inflation, presenting its results in the form of an index with the median household income of January 2010 assigned a value of 100. The initial value of the firm's U.S. Real Median Household Income Index for August 2025 is 118.7.
The following screenshot of Motio Research's interactive chart shows how this index has changed from January 2010 through August 2025:
August 2025's increase in Motio Research's U.S. Real Median Household Income Index based on survey data represents a significant increase over the preceding month. Prior to June 2025, the index had been in a slowly falling trend.
The U.S. Census Bureau reported its annual median household income estimate for 2024 on 9 September 2025, finding a household at the exact middle of the U.S. spectrum of income earned $83,730. That's roughly 2.2% above Motio Research's estimate of $81,910 for 2024, which they projected in April 2025.
Analyst's Notes
We find Motio's estimate of 2024's median household income for the U.S. is reasonably close to the official figure given the differences in survey data used to produce the U.S. Census Bureau's annual estimate, which is collected during March each year, and Motio Research's monthly estimates. The Census Bureau's annual estimate is based on a much larger sampling of the U.S. population than participates in the monthly surveys Motio uses to create its monthly estimates. Coming within a three percent margin of error with respect to the "official" annual figure given the differences in data is a good outcome for Motio Research's methodology.
Political Calculations initial estimate of median household income in August 2025 based upon our alternate methodology is $84,466, which is $723 (or 0.9%) higher than our initial July 2025 estimate of $83,743. Our median household income estimate is $1,564 (or about 1.8%) below Motio Research's August 2025 estimate.
The latest update to Political Calculations' chart tracking Median Household Income in the 21st Century shows the nominal (red) and inflation-adjusted (blue) trends for median household income in the United States from January 2000 through August 2025. The inflation-adjusted figures are presented in terms of constant August 2025 U.S. dollars and are not seasonally adjusted, unlike the data used to produce Motio Research's Household Income index:
Political Calculations' monthly median household income estimates are derived from the Bureau of Economic Analysis' monthly aggregate wage and salary estimates for the U.S. population. Given that Motio Research's estimates have increased so much in the last several months, the survey data on which they're based may be picking up on a new rising trend that the aggregate earned income data we use to create our complementary estimate is not yet capturing.
That said, the aggregate wage and salary data underwent a significant revision in September 2025, affecting previously reported data going back to January 2020. The next pair of charts show how that data changed from what was reported in August 2025.
Revisions were typically small, less than 0.1%, in the period from January 2020 through June 2023. Much larger revisions were recorded from July 2023 through July 2025.
Those larger revisions were generally positive in the period from July 2023 through December 2023, ranging between 0% and 0.2%. The period from January 2024 through June 2024 was revised substantially downward with March 2024 seeing the biggest change, a negative adjustment of 1.07%. The period since June 2024 was revised upward, with changes ranging from 0.01% to September 2024's biggest positive adjustment of 0.56%. Revisions since December 2024 were typically around or under 0.2%.
References
U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. Table 2.6. Personal Income and Its Disposition, Monthly, Personal Income and Outlays, Not Seasonally Adjusted, Monthly, Middle of Month. Population. [Online Database (via Federal Reserve Economic Data)]. 26 September 2025.
U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. Table 2.6. Personal Income and Its Disposition, Monthly, Personal Income and Outlays, Not Seasonally Adjusted, Monthly, Middle of Month. Compensation of Employees, Received: Wage and Salary Disbursements. [Online Database (via Federal Reserve Economic Data)]. Last Updated: 26 September 2025.
U.S. Department of Labor Bureau of Labor Statistics. Consumer Price Index, All Urban Consumers - (CPI-U), U.S. City Average, All Items, 1982-84=100. Not seasonally adjusted. [Online Database (via Federal Reserve Economic Data)]. 11 September 2025.
For the latest in our coverage of median household income in the United States, follow this link!
Image credit: U.S. Census Bureau. We modified the public domain image to make it more generally applicable beyond reporting the median household income from 2022.
Labels: median household income
The S&P 500 (Index: SPX) hit a brand new record high of 6,693.75 on Monday, 22 September 2025 before retreating in the following days. By the time the trading week ended on Friday, 26 September 2025, the index sat at 6,643.70, down 0.3% from where it closed the preceding week.
The most significant market-moving news of the week continued to be related to the prospects of the Federal Reserve lowering interest rates further. Only this week, the Fed's minions hit the media circuit with mixed messages about what additional actions they might take after last week's quarter point rate cut and left the perception they wanted to take back some of the rate cuts investors had come to expect.
Those mixed messages combined with the week's data flow to affect investor expectations for what rate cuts might happen and when. The CME Group's FedWatch Tool projects two more quarter point cuts in 2025, coming on 29 October (2025-Q4) and 10 December (2025-Q4), then pausing until the second quarter of 2026 before resuming with another quarter point reduction on 29 April (2026-Q2). Last week, investors had expected the next rate cut would take place in 2026-Q1.
The latest update of the alternative futures chart captures that shift in the time horizon of investors over the past week. The trajectory of the S&P 500 moved from the projected forecast associated with investors focusing on 2026-Q1 to the lower projected path associated with investors fixing their attention on 2026-Q2.
The shift in investor time horizon represents a new Lévy flight event.
What happens with stock prices next will depend upon the random onset of new information investors will absorb in the next week. Here is our summary of the market-moving headlines investors weighed during the trading week ending on 26 September 2025.
- Monday, 22 September 2025
-
- Signs and portents for the U.S. economy:
- Oil prices dip as Iraq increases exports amid demand concerns
- Trump to impose $100,000 fee per year for H-1B visas, in blow to tech
- US new H-1B visa fee will not apply to existing holders, White House says
- Trump's New H-1B Visa Regulation Sends Shockwaves Through Big Tech
- Computer Science Grads Face 7.5% Unemployment: AI Job Cuts Crush Coding Dream
- Fed minions sow doubt against more rate cuts:
- Bigger trouble, stimulus developing in China:
- BOJ minions accused of being little different from JapanGov minions:
- Bigger trouble developing in Eurozone:
- Wall Street closed at record levels ahead of further inflation data
- Tuesday, 23 September 2025
-
- Signs and portents for the U.S. economy:
- Oil gains as restart of Kurdistan oil exports stalls
- US business activity moderates; inflation outlook improves
- Fed minions sending mixed messages:
- Fed's Powell strikes middle path on inflation, jobs, as others take sides
- Fed's Powell: Repeats no risk-free path as Fed balances job, inflation risks
- There's no risk-free policy path when both sides of mandate at risk, Powell says
- Miran defends low-rate view as colleagues caution on further cuts
- Fed's Bowman: Fed needs to be decisive in fending off job market risks
- Fed's Bostic says inflation risks still present in US economy
- Fed's Goolsbee, on CNBC, says Fed has room to cut rates
- Bigger trouble developing in China:
- Bigger trouble developing in Eurozone as biggest economies are dragging growth down:
- Wall Street breaks winning streak as Powell reiterates message from last week
- Wednesday, 24 September 2025
-
- Signs and portents for the U.S. economy:
- Oil gains, lower US crude stockpiles provide floor
- US new home sales jump to more than 3-1/2-year high; economists dismiss rise as a fluke
- Fed minions continue sending mixed messages about future for more rate cuts:
- Fed's Daly: Further rate cuts will likely be needed
- Fed’s Goolsbee says US jobs market steady, cautions against aggressive rate cuts, FT reports
- Bigger trouble, stimulus developing in China:
- China's COMAC falls behind on C919 aircraft delivery targets, filings show
- Exclusive: G7 weighs price floors for rare earths to counter China's dominance, sources say
- BOJ minions seriously thinking about hiking Japan's interest rates in October:
- U.S. stocks fall as tech sector struggles, rate-cut uncertainties rattle markets
- Thursday, 25 September 2025
-
- Signs and portents for the U.S. economy:
- U.S. Q2 GDP revised higher to +3.8% on strength of the consumer
- US goods trade deficit contracts sharply in August
- US, Chinese officials to meet at Treasury for technical talks on trade, source says
- US implements EU trade deal, 15% autos tariffs retroactive to Aug 1
- Oil pulls back from seven-week high
- US weekly jobless claims reverse prior surge, labor market still softening
- US existing home sales dip in August
- Fed minions claim they have US interest rates right where they want them, but may want to cut them more, thinking about redoing regulations:
- KC Fed's Schmid sees current policy rate as 'right place to be'
- Fed's Daly: 'A little bit more' rate cutting likely needed 'over time'
- Fed's Miran presses case for fast rate cuts, but other policymakers push back
- Fed's Bowman says regulators to unveil Basel capital rule redo by early 2026
- Fed's Lisa Cook urges US Supreme Court to reject Trump's bid to fire her
- Bigger trade deal developing in China:
- Wall Street ended in the red after jobless claims fell and Q2 GDP was revised higher
- Friday, 26 September 2025
-
- Signs and portents for the U.S. economy:
- Core inflation rate held at 2.9% in August, as expected, Fed’s gauge shows
- Oil gains on Ukraine drone attacks cutting Russian supply
- Fed minions keep sending mixed messages:
- Fed's Bowman says decisive rate cuts needed to offset labor market risks
- Fed's Barkin: Risks to both inflation, jobs, may be limited
- Trump urges Supreme Court in new filing to allow his firing of Fed's Lisa Cook
- Bigger trouble, stimulus developing in China:
- EU plans 25% to 50% tariffs on Chinese steel, related products, Handelsblatt reports
- Trump slaps steep US tariffs on drugs, heavy trucks and furniture
- China is confident in sustaining economic growth, premier says
- BOJ minions expected to hike Japan's interest rates:
- Wall Street ended higher after PCE index data arrived in line with estimates
The Atlanta Fed's GDPNow tool projection of real GDP growth in the U.S. during the current quarter of 2025-Q3 jumped to +3.9% after last week's forecast of +3.3% annualized growth.
Image credit: Microsoft Copilot Designer. Prompt: "An editorial cartoon with a Wall Street bull wearing a suit who is pulling a wagon filled with boxes that say EXPECTED RATE CUTS with Federal Reserve officials sneakily trying to take some boxes away".
Many metal prices, especially for those of precious metals, have boomed during 2025. In August, Visual Capitalist's Bruno Venditti and Sam Parker made a snapshot of how much metal you could buy with $10,000. Here's the chart they created:
The relative scales of each metal and material shown are linked to the weight that $10,000 would have bought on 22 August 2025. We were curious though to find out the physical size of the metal that would be bought, so we looked up their densities to calculate how big each side a cube of $10,000 worth of each would actually be. At least, with the exception of the rare earth praseodymium-neodymium oxide, for which density data isn't easily obtainable. Here our our results:
- Gold: 1.69 cm
- Platinum: 2.20 cm
- Palladium: 2.85 cm
- Silver: 9.13 cm
- Uranium: 14.81 cm
- Cobalt: 32.35 cm
- Nickel: 42.14 cm
- Lithium (LCE): 73.51 cm
- Copper: 48.45 cm
- Zinc: 79.36 cm
- Aluminum: 112.21 cm
The sizes range from a tiny gold cube where each side is 1.69 cm (or about 2/3 of an inch) long up to a large aluminum cube where each side is 1.12 meters (or a little over 44.2 inches) long.
The prices on which the chart is based apply for 22 August 2025 and have changed quite a bit for some of the metals. For example, the spot price of gold was $3,372.39 per ounce, about 10% less than it is at this writing. $10,000 worth of gold today would be smaller.
Labels: data visualization
The total market capitalization of new homes sold in the United States jumped in August 2025. Political Calculations' estimate of the time-shifted trailing twelve month average of the total value of new homes sold during the month based on its initial data is $30.53 billion.
If that figure holds, August 2025 will represent the first month the total market cap of the new home market in the U.S. exceeded its pre-Coronavirus Pandemic high of $30.12 billion in the last five years. The data for August 2025 itself will be subject to several more revisions before becoming relatively finalized in the next several months, while our estimate of the total annualized valuation of new homes sold in the U.S. won't be completely finalized for another eight months.
August 2025's initial estimate is about 2.9% higher than our first estimate of $29.68 billion for July 2025's new home market cap.
There are some questions about the data, with several observers describing it as a statistical "fluke".
The bigger-than-expected increase in sales last month reported by the Commerce Department on Wednesday was shrugged off by economists, who noted that new housing data was extremely volatile and subject to revisions. They also said the jump in sales was at odds with subdued homebuilder sentiment.
"There is no obvious driver. I expect that this spike in sales will be largely reversed in coming months," said Stephen Stanley, chief U.S. economist at Santander U.S. Capital Markets.
"One could potentially point to lower mortgage rates ... but the bigger fall has come in September. One might think that builders capitulated and cut their asking prices sharply, but the average price of new homes sold in August actually jumped versus July."
New home sales shot up 20.5% to a seasonally adjusted annualized rate of 800,000 units last month, the highest level since January 2022, the Commerce Department's Census Bureau said. The increase was the biggest since August 2022.
There may be more to the story than the housing data is letting on by itself. Motio Research reported a large jump in median household income for August 2025, which they report rose to $86,030, an increase of 0.5% over their July 2025 estimate. This figure represents an all-time high for this statistic, which we'll take a closer look at and what it means for new home affordability in the near future.
The following charts present the U.S. new home market capitalization, the number of new home sales, and their sale prices as measured by their time-shifted, trailing twelve month averages from January 1976 through August 2025. The trends they show suggest the new home market is rebounding.
Rising new home sales trend?
Rising trend for average home prices
The size of revisions in the new home sales data can be significant. The next several months worth of revisions will be significant in telling how real the surge in new home sales in August 2025 really is.
References
U.S. Census Bureau. New Residential Sales Historical Data. Houses Sold. [Excel Spreadsheet]. Accessed 24 September 2025.
U.S. Census Bureau. New Residential Sales Historical Data. Median and Average Sale Price of Houses Sold. [Excel Spreadsheet]. Accessed 24 September 2025.
Image credit: Photo by Troy Mortier on Unsplash.
Labels: real estate
Vanguard is one of the world's largest brokerages. It grew to be as large as it is because it developed low-cost investment options like mutual funds and index funds, which put owning stocks into the affordable reach of millions of people.
Earlier this year, Vanguard polled its investors because they had a question about why they had chosen to invest the way they had. The investors in question had invested in the company's Equity Income Fund (Index: VEIPX). The fund is composed of stocks that pay relatively high yield dividends, so investors owning the fund could expect to get dividend income from their investment in it once a quarter.
Except most their investors were choosing to pass on pocketing that income. Vanguard portfolio manager Sharon Hill describes what they were doing instead:
“We call the fund Equity Income, and we focus on stocks that offer above-average dividend yields,” said Hill, head of the Global & Income Active Equity team within Vanguard Quantitative Equity Group, our in-house active equity manager. “But on the days the fund distributes dividends, we generally don’t need to raise much capital. Most of the investors reinvest their dividends in the fund.”...
“We thought, ‘Why would investors own an income fund if they didn’t want the income?’” Hill said. “So we decided to ask them.”
They asked more than 5,000 investors why. They found the practice wasn't limited to the Equity Income Fund:
The results showed that across Vanguard’s five equity income funds—those with the terms “high dividend” or “income” in their names—only 12% of investors said they needed the income produced by the funds. More than 80% said they reinvested the dividends. Interestingly, equity income fund investors were no more likely to withdraw their dividends than investors in other equity funds.
Why would such a large percentage of investors plow their dividends back into the funds they had invested? As Vanguard notes:
In theory, in the absence of tax and trading costs, investors shouldn’t care whether they receive their returns in the form of dividends or price appreciation. That’s because a dividend payment reduces a company’s value—and, all else equal, its share price—by the amount of the payment.
Since Vanguard provides options to invest in growth-oriented funds, which pay little-to-no dividends so their investment gains come purely from their growing in value, it wouldn't seem to make much sense for investors to invest in their income-oriented funds. Especially if they were just going to reinvest the dividends they earned back into the funds.
Here's what behavioral economist Paulo Costa found after they asked why:
About half of investors said they own equity income funds because they prefer to invest in dividend-paying companies. Many of these investors said they believe that the stocks of companies paying high dividend rates have higher returns and lower volatility than other stocks, and that such companies care more about their investors than companies paying low dividend rates.
“These results suggest investors derive emotional benefit from investing in dividend-paying stocks, in addition to the more utilitarian, financial benefits,” Costa said.
When investors were asked why they reinvested their dividends, about 80% cited a preference for compounding returns. About 70% said they reinvested because they didn’t need the dividends for immediate spending. “Many dividend reinvestors may be positioning themselves to receive income at a later date, to meet future spending needs,” Costa said.
Here's the chart capturing the responses Costa received when asking the dividend re-investors why they were reinvesting:
While Costa focused in on the behavioral aspects of the survey responses, the surveyed investors indicated they had a rather important financial incentive to reinvest their dividends: "they believe that the stocks of companies paying high dividend rates have higher returns and lower volatility than other stocks".
According to the Wall Street Journal's Spencer Jakob, who reviewed Vanguard's study, they're right.
Data from the past 50 years compiled by Ned Davis Research shows that the annualized return of dividend payers in the S&P 500 was 9.2%, compared with only 4.3% for nonpayers, and with less choppiness too.
Dividend payers would have left you with 10 times as much wealth before taxes over that time as nonpayers. They also easily beat an equal-weighted basket of all companies in the index.
Earlier this year, we presented the following chart based on Ned Davis Research's data for the period from January 1973 through September 2024. Here it is again, where we find the returns are very close to the figures Jakob cites:
Generally speaking, dividend payers tend to have better returns with relatively less risk.
Related Reading
Going back to the question of whether investing in growth stocks versus dividend stocks (or stock funds) is more advantageous, we're going to point you to the very thought-provoking article Dividends Aren't Magic by Beyond Saving at Seeking Alpha which has a rather remarkable conclusion. We won't spoil it for you, but it is well worth reading the whole thing, if only because it reinforces a key point Vanguard learned from their dividend reinvesting investors....
Image credit: Cash Dividends by Nick Youngson on Picpedia.org. Creative Commons CC-BY-SA 3.0. Alpha Stock Images.
China is the world's leading producer of carbon dioxide emissions by a very wide margin.
Its contribution to the rising level of carbon dioxide in the air is so great that here in the mid-2020s, we can use those emissions to get an idea of how China's economy is performing. Since the end of 2024, the pace at which CO₂ accumulates in the Earth's atmosphere has been falling, which indicates that China's economy has slowed.
In August 2025, those problems have manifested in the form of falling industrial output related to the impact of the global tariff war and the country's prolonged and ongoing real estate crisis, which are both major contributors to China's CO₂ emissions. The economic contraction resulting from these factors has led China to put less carbon dioxide into the air.
The latest update of our chart tracking the trailing year average of the year-over-year change in the atmosphere's carbon dioxide concentration from January 2000 through August 2025 shows a sharp decline after December 2024, coinciding with the woes of China's economy.
We've emphasized these very visible factors in this analysis because they are completely ignored in recent claims made by environmental activists that all the reduction is due to China's expansion of renewable energy sources.
We're pretty sure that if China's economy was growing as planned, their year-to-date emissions in 2025 would be higher.
References
National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration. Earth System Research Laboratory. Mauna Loa Observatory CO2 Data. [Online Data]. 5 September 2025.
Image credit: Photo of a coal-fired power plant in Shuozhou, Shanxi, China (2010) by Kleineolive at Wikimedia Commons. Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 Unported.
On the surface, it looks like the S&P 500 (Index: SPX) reached a new record closing high of 6,664.36 on Friday, 19 September 2025 because the U.S. Federal Reserve did exactly what investors expected to do.
The thing the Fed did that was so well-anticipated by everybody was to resume cutting the Federal Funds Rate after a nine month pause. The Fed's action to reduce this interest rate by a quarter point to a target range of 4.00-4.25% was, by far, the most noticeable market moving event of the week.
Being so well-anticipated, that action isn't what sent the S&P 500 to new record highs. The rate cut was effectively already built into stock prices.
The thing that did send stock prices 1.2% higher than their previous week's close was a new Lévy flight. Investors shifted their forward time horizon inward from the more distant future quarter of 2026-Q2 toward the nearer term future quarter of 2026-Q1.
The latest update of the alternative futures chart based on the dividend futures-based model shows that transition began on Monday, 15 September 2025 and continued throughout the week. By Friday, 19 September 2025, we observe investors would appear to be fully focused on 2026-Q1 as they set current day stock prices.
We think the reason for the shift of investor time horizon has to do with expectations for future rate cuts in 2026-Q1. After the Fed cut the Federal Funds Rate by a quarter point, the CME Group's FedWatch Tool projects two more quarter point cuts in 2025, coming on 29 October (2025-Q4) and 10 December (2025-Q4), then pausing for a cycle and resuming with another quarter point reduction on 18 March (2026-Q1).
Although the FedWatch tool indicates the Fed may pause in its new rate cut cycle, the open question is will it? We think the prospect the Fed will continue to cut the Federal Funds Rate at each of its rate-setting Federal Open Market Committee meetings through 2026-Q1 is sufficient to draw the forward-looking focus of investors inward to that less distant future quarter. Stock prices have risen in response because the outlook for year-over-year dividend growth in the quarter is more positive than what it is for 2026-Q2, where investors had, until this week, locked their attention since mid-August 2025.
Here are the market-moving headlines of the week that was, where both realized and potential personnel changes at the Fed helped fuel what investors expect may happen into early 2026.
- Monday, 15 September 2025
-
- Signs and portents for the U.S. economy:
- Oil holds steady as investors assess attacks on Russian energy facilities
- US, China reach framework deal on TikTok; Trump and Xi to speak on Friday
- Fed minions expected to deliver rate cut, still need to decide how big:
- Fed faces key week of decisions with membership, political independence in doubt
- Trump calls for 'bigger' interest rate cut ahead of Fed meeting
- Bigger trouble, stimulus developing in China:
- China's economy slumps in August, casts doubt on growth target
- China's home prices extend decline, more policy support needed
- China August bank loans pick up but well below forecast as economy struggles
- What is "involution", China's race-to-the-bottom competition trend?
- China sets 2025 auto sales target below association forecast, vows tighter regulation
- China's coal output falls 3% in August on production curbs
- Exclusive: US Democrats press Trump for a trade deal that curbs China's production
- ECB minions thinking they shouldn't sweat small details on inflation, tell small Eurozone banks they need to clean up their books:
- ECB should not alter policy on small deviations from inflation target, Kazimir says
- ECB tells small banks to tackle old bad loans
- S&P, Nasdaq push to new record as stocks rise on Big Tech boost, Fed decision looming
- Tuesday, 16 September 2025
-
- Signs and portents for the U.S. economy:
- US manufacturing output unexpectedly rises on rebound in motor vehicle production
- US housing market to remain stuck in a rut as high rates choke demand
- Fed minions still expected to deliver rate September 2025 rate cut as they sort out personnel matters:
- Fed rate-cut optimism has bond investors focusing on duration, steeper yield curve
- Fed for now avoids shock to independence after Cook ruling; Miran sworn in as governor
- Trump administration to appeal court decision blocking firing of Fed Governor Cook, White House says
- Trump economic adviser Miran gets Senate nod to join Fed board
- US Treasury Secretary Bessent praises Bullard in search for Fed chief
- U.S. stocks closed in the red as FOMC meeting starts, Miran confirmed as Fed governor
- Wednesday, 17 September 2025
-
- Signs and portents for the U.S. economy:
- US single-family housing starts near 2-1/2-year lows as inventory bloat weighs
- US 30-year mortgage rate drops, refinances jump, MBA data shows
- Oil prices ease on US demand concerns
- Fed minions cut interest rate by quarter point for "risk management", hear there are going to be fewer Fed minions, expected to deliver more rate cuts:
- Fed lowers interest rates, signals more cuts ahead; Miran dissents
- No big push for a larger rate cut, Fed's Powell says
- Instant View: Fed lowers rates by a quarter of a point; Powell says was a risk management cut
- Wall Street Reacts To Powell's "Risk-Management" Rate Cut
- Fed Cuts Rates By 25bps; Powell 'Bends The Knee', Signals Dovish Path Ahead
- Fed's Powell said central bank is cutting 10% of its staff
- US rate futures lift chances of further easing in October after Fed cuts rates
- Bank of Canada also restarts rate cuts:
- Bigger trouble developing in Japan:
- Wall Street ends mixed as Federal Reserve cuts 25 basis points
- Thursday, 18 September 2025
-
- Signs and portents for the U.S. economy:
- US holiday shopping growth to cool this year, Mastercard forecasts
- US Supreme Court to hear Trump's tariffs case on November 5
- Oil prices little changed as traders weigh US rate cut with worries over US economy
- Fed minions rate cut raises more questions than answers, ethically troubled Fed minion's job may still be on chopping block, new minion has little influence:
- US Fed starts easing path, other major central banks on hold
- Trump asks US Supreme Court to allow firing of Fed Governor Lisa Cook
- Miran's Fed dissent makes a splash, fails to sway the outcome
- BOJ minions thinking about more rate hikes in Japan despite country's leadership change:
- U.S. stocks end at all-time highs as Intel-Nvidia deal, Fed's rate cut, lifts the markets
- Friday, 19 September 2025
-
- Signs and portents for the U.S. economy:
- Oil prices slip as robust supply outweighs Fed cut
- Trump and Xi make progress on TikTok deal, plan to meet in South Korea
- Fed minions say two more rate cuts in 2025, new minion calls for bigger rate cuts:
- Fed's Kashkari sees two more rate cuts this year as likely appropriate, given labor market risks
- Fed's Miran defends call for steep rate cuts, says Trump didn't direct his vote
- Bank of China won't match Fed rate cut for now:
- BOJ minions hold off on rate hike, want to sell off ETFs:
- Wall Street rallies to notch a record close after a strong trading week
The Atlanta Fed's GDPNow tool projection of real GDP growth in the U.S. during the current quarter of 2025-Q3 ticked up to +3.3% after last week's forecast of +3.1% annualized growth.
Image credit: Microsoft Copilot Designer. Prompt: "An editorial cartoon of a Wall Street bull and a bear, both wearing business suits. The bull smiles and says I'M HAPPY ABOUT THE RATE CUT BUT LET'S SEE MORE while the bear looks skeptical".
Behind the scenes, we may be starting to get a handle on the remaining unknown frontier covering the last 10% for explaining why stock prices behave as they do thanks in no small measure to this Financial Times article, which provides an excellent entry point into what may well be a coherent theory for what causes changes in market regimes that the dividiend futures-based model can only quantify through observation. It's an exciting time and if it holds, one where we'll be extremely pleased to highlight the work of others!
How many times has the following scenario happened to you?
You playing with a tetrahedron, one of those strange geometrical objects whose defining characteristic is that it has four flat sides that are all shaped like triangles, when you suddenly drop it. As it falls, you starting placing mental bets on which of the four sides will land on. Will the side you pick win?
If you're like most people, the answer to the question of how many times this scenario has happeend to you is almost never. Not only do you not run into random tetrahedrons to play with, the game of dropping one to see which side will be on top is not a very fun one to play. The only way to make it interesting is to gamble on the outcome, which makes it a bad dice game, but one with better odds. Instead of a one in six chance of getting it right, you have a one in four chance.
But if you're going to put money down to play this incredibly boring game with the equivalent of a four-sided die, would you really want to lose on average three times out of every four drops?
Of course not! If you want to win all the time, you're going to have to figure out a way to transform your tetrahedron into a loaded die, one that always comes up the way you want it to. Sure, that's cheating, but if money is on the line in playing this game, you want to be the one collecting it from the rubes you might be playing with. How can you rig the game so your tetrahedron always comes out with your winning side on top?
Good news, everyone! Mathematicians have figured out how you can always beat this game. Stand Up Maths' Matt Parker breaks the news in the following video...
And there you have it, a loaded tetrahedron that you can use like a loaded die to always win bets related to which side will it land on if you drop it!
For more information about how this achievement was realized, check out Quanta Magazine's article on the discovery of the monostable tetrahedron!
Welcome to the blogosphere's toolchest! Here, unlike other blogs dedicated to analyzing current events, we create easy-to-use, simple tools to do the math related to them so you can get in on the action too! If you would like to learn more about these tools, or if you would like to contribute ideas to develop for this blog, please e-mail us at:
ironman at politicalcalculations
Thanks in advance!
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