Motio Research reports their initial estimate of U.S. median household income for December 2025 is $86,820, a $340 (or 0.4%) decrease from their initial November 2025 estimate of $87,160.
The change is the first decline Motio's household income index has seen in the last several months, which we've described as appearing to "run hot" with respect to the estimates we develop using our alternate methodology. One interpretation of that outcome is that Motio Research's use of survey-based data has picked up on a new trend that isn't yet making its presence felt in the aggregate wage and salary data we use to develop our estimates of median household income.
That's a real possibility for October and November 2025's data, we found we had some really uncanny accuracy in predicting what our "official" estimates would be after the aggregate wage and salary data along with population data for both months became available in late January 2026. Our accuracy suggests the BEA is using similar methods to project their own estimates, which means it's fully independent of the survey-based data Motio Research utilizes in determining their estimates.
Another possibility is the sampling used by the Census Bureau in collecting income data through its monthly Current Population Survey. If that sample has been skewed to the high side compared to the general population in recent months, it could well produce estimates that are higher than those we project using the BEA's aggregate income data. Given the various survey and analytical methodologies involved, that state of affairs could last for several months until the survey population fully rolls over and the resulting income data undergoes what statisticians refer to as a reversion to the mean.
If this second possibility holds, we should see Motio Research's estimates move back toward our projections over the next several months. But if it stays elevated, then the argument for the first possibility becomes stronger. We'll all find out soon enough.
For now, Motio Research presents the results of its analysis of the Census Bureau's surveyed income data in the form of an seasonally-and-inflation-adjusted index with the median household income of January 2010 assigned a value of 100. The initial value of the firm's U.S. Real Median Household Income Index for December 2025 is 118.6.
The following screenshot of Motio Research's interactive chart shows how this index has changed from January 2010 through December 2025:
In other news, we're still dealing with the disruption of 2025's 43-day-long federal government shutdown. While many government agencies will be fully caught up in reporting their monthly data in the next few months, several of the data streams we follow in developing our own median household income estimates are still impacted by delays.
Analyst's Notes
Political Calculations produces median household income estimates using other original data sources that complement Motio Research's survey-based estimates. Because of the ongoing delays in official data being reported, we'll be delayed in producing our "official" median household income estimate for December 2025.
But then, if the data for which we're waiting is just a linear projection of historic data, we can produce a fairly accurate ballpark estimate in the meantime. Our ballpark estimate of median household income in the U.S. in December 2025 is $85,821, which is $1,001 (or 1.15%) below Motio Research's initial estimate for the month.
We'll see how close that is to our "official" estimate after we get the data we're after for December 2025, which we'll cover in our next regular edition of the median household income series.
Image credit: U.S. Census Bureau. We modified the public domain image to make it more generally applicable beyond reporting the median household income from 2022.
Labels: median household income
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