Motio Research reports their initial estimate of U.S. median household income for March 2026 is $88,310. This value represents a $680 (or 0.8%) increase from the firm's initial estimate of $87,630 for February 2026.
Motio Research's estimates are based on income data collected by the U.S. Census Bureau through its monthly Current Population Survey. This survey is conducted during the week containing the 12th day of the month following the month in which its data applies. Motio Research adjusts its raw monthly estimates to account for the effects of seasonality and inflation, presenting its results in the form of an index with the median household income of January 2010 assigned a value of 100. The initial value of the firm's U.S. Real Median Household Income Index for March 2026 is 119.8.
The following screenshot of Motio Research's interactive chart shows how this index has changed from January 2010 through March 2026:
Motio's survey-based estimates indicate the pace of growth of median household income has resumed increasing rapidly since January 2026. Our working hypothesis is the survey-based median household income estimates are reflecting a combination of rising household incomes and the exit of millions of very low income earning foreigners who have departed the United States in response to cash incentives and free travel to their home countries that have been offered by the Trump administration.
Analyst's Notes
Political Calculations produces median household income estimates using other original data sources that complement Motio Research's survey-based estimates. Our estimates have been lagging behind Motio Research's estimates because of delays in the reporting of the aggregate income we use to generate them stemming from the Senate Democrats' government shutdowns. As of 30 April 2026 however, those delays have ended. We are now able to fully catch up with median household income estimates for both February and March 2026. Here they are, starting with our initial estimate of median household income for January 2026 to show how they've changed:
- January 2026: $86,506
- February 2026: $86,896, an increase of $275 (+0.3%) from January 2026
- March 2026: $87,164, an increase of $269 (+0.3%) from February 2026
The following chart presents our estimates of U.S. median household income, both adjusted for inflation (blue) and not-adjusted for inflation (red) for each month from January 2000 through March 2026.
Political Calculations' March 2026 estimate is $1,146 (or 1.3%) below Motio Research's initial estimate of $88,310 for March 2026. We think this difference is attributable to the BEA's use of projections to estimate aggregate wage and salary income, which is not currently capturing the departure of millions of very low income earning foreign-born individuals from the U.S. labor force. We anticipate there will be substantial revisions to this data as it is replaced by more accurate aggregate earned income data.
For the latest in our coverage of median household income in the United States, follow this link!
References
U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. Table 2.6. Personal Income and Its Disposition, Monthly, Personal Income and Outlays, Not Seasonally Adjusted, Monthly, Middle of Month. Population. [Online Database (via Federal Reserve Economic Data)]. Last Updated: 30 April 2026. Accessed: 30 April 2026.
U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. Table 2.6. Personal Income and Its Disposition, Monthly, Personal Income and Outlays, Not Seasonally Adjusted, Monthly, Middle of Month. Compensation of Employees, Received: Wage and Salary Disbursements. [Online Database (via Federal Reserve Economic Data)]. Last Updated: 30 April 2026. Accessed: 30 April 2026.
Image credit: U.S. Census Bureau. We modified the public domain image to make it more generally applicable beyond reporting the median household income from 2022.
Labels: median household income
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