The climbing limo method of forecasting future GDP in the United States projects the nation's economic output in the recently finished first quarter of 2026 will be around $31.5 trillion.
This estimate assumes the momentum the U.S. economy recorded in growing between 2024-Q4 and 2025-Q2 will be sustained through the recently ended quarter of 2026-Q1. Since the U.S. economy's momentum has come in stronger than expected over the intervening quarters since our last snapshot, it's likely 2026-Q1's will come in above that value, which is not adjusted for inflation.
These projections have been delayed because the Senate Democrats' government shutdown disrupted U.S. economic data reporting. It took until earlier this month to get finalized GDP data for both 2025-Q3 and Q4, which means we can now generate the climbing limo method's momentum-based projections for both 2026-Q2 and 2026-Q3. The following chart visually presents those projections while showing how actual non-inflation adjusted GDP tracked with the model's previous projections:
For the now current quarter of 2026-Q2, the climbing limo GDP forecasting method projects GDP will potentially rise to almost $32.8 trillion. Since that projection was generated with finalized GDP figures for 2025-Q1 and 2025-Q3, long before any impact from the Iran war would be felt, it will be interesting to see how well that forecast tracks with 2026-Q2's actual GDP.
That's because the climbing limo forecasting method is a momentum-based projection. As such, even when recorded GDP deviates considerably from the forecast values that are projected three quarters ahead in time, it provides valuable information in confirming the economy's underlying momentum has changed. We should get a good reading on how big the Iran war's impact has been on the U.S. economy after the actual GDP data for 2026-Q2 is reported.
Meanwhile, the most distant future projection we can make with available finalized GDP data is for 2026-Q3, where the climbing limo forecasting method anticipates the nation's nominal GDP will rise to about $32.9 trillion.
References
U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. National Income and Product Accounts. Table 1.1.5. Gross Domestic Product. [Online Database]. Accessed 9 April 2026.
Image Credit: Microsoft Copilot Designer. Prompt: "A simple sketch of a limousine driving uphill toward the right side of a rising zig zag line chart".
Labels: gdp forecast
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