The dividend outlook for the S&P 500 (Index: SPX) took a turn toward lower dividend growth across all upcoming quarters for which dividend futures are available in our September 2026 snapshot of their outlook.
Projected dividends for each quarter from the current fourth quarter of 2026 through the third quarter of 2027 fell back from the levels projected by the CME Group's S&P 500 Quarterly Dividend Index a month earlier.
Here is the summary of how the expected future for the S&P 500's dividends changed between 14 September and 14 October 2026:
- 2026-Q4: Decrease of $0.04 to $21.57 per share
- 2027-Q1: Decrease of $0.21 to $22.64 per share
- 2027-Q2: Decrease of $0.22 to $21.44 per share
- 2027-Q3: Decrease of $0.23 to $21.62 per share
Dividend futures for 2027-Q4 have become available since our September 2026 snapshot. The initial projection of the S&P 500's dividends in that distant future quarter is $21.64 per share.
The following chart illustrates the expectations for the S&P 500's quarterly dividends per share as of 14 September 2026 and how they compare with the preceding quarters going back to 2024-Q4.
More About Dividend Futures
Dividend futures represent the quantified expectations investors have for the future income they will realize from owning shares of stocks, which in turn, affects how investors set current day stock prices. How changes in the outlook for dividends at specific points of time in the future contribute to changes in current day stock prices as represented by the value of the S&P 500 index is described by this math.
Dividend futures for the index indicate the market capitalization-weighted amount of dividends per share for all these dividend-paying stocks that are expected to be paid out over the period covered by each quarter's dividend futures contracts. These contracts start on the day after the preceding quarter's dividend futures contracts expire and end on the third Friday of the month ending the indicated quarter. For example, as determined by dividend futures contracts, the now "current" quarter of 2026-Q4 began on Saturday, 19 September 2026 and runs through Friday, 18 December 2026. The next quarter of 2027-Q1 will begin on Saturday, 19 December 2026 and will run through Friday, 19 March 2027.
Because dividend futures are tied to options contracts that run on this schedule, that makes these figures different from the quarterly dividends per share figures that are reported by Standard and Poor. S&P reports the amount of dividends per share paid out during regular calendar quarters after the end of each quarter. This term mismatch accounts for the differences in dividends reported by both sources, with the biggest differences between the two typically seen in the first and fourth quarters of each year.
Image Credit: Microsoft Copilot Designer. Prompt: "A crystal ball with the word 'SP 500' written inside it". And 'Dividends' written above it, which we added.
Labels: dividends, forecasting, SP 500
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