Unexpectedly Intriguing!
September 27, 2007

The BEA just released the final revision to the U.S.' Gross Domestic Product and that means it's time again for us to update our GDP growth bullet charts!

The first chart below shows the annualized percentage change in Real (inflation-adjusted) GDP for the just finalized revision for the second quarter of 2007 (3.8%), along with the percentage changes in the two preceding quarters (0.6% for one quarter ago and 2.1% for two quarters ago.)

These changes are presented against a temperature scale that illustrates the historic rates of GDP growth (or at least, since 1980) that correspond with slow growth, shown in purple at the "cold" end of the scale, and faster rates of economic growth, shown in the "temperature" transitions from purple to blue to green to yellow and finally to red at the "hot" end of the scale!

The second chart does the same, but finds the rate of economic growth over a two-quarter long period of time: 2.2% for the two quarters ending in 2007Q2, 1.3% for the two quarters ending in 2007Q1 and 1.6% for the two quarters ending in 2006Q4. Spanning these periods allows a full year's worth of specific GDP growth data to be directly represented in the bullet chart:

GDP Bullet 1Q and 2Q Charts, 2007Q2

The two-quarter GDP bullet chart demonstrates that economic growth in the U.S. has been substantially less volatile than the one-quarter bullet chart would suggest, which we confirm in looking at the spread viewed in both charts. The one-quarter GDP bullet chart shows a 2.2% difference between high and low growth rate data, while the two-quarter GDP bullet chart indicates a 0.9% difference.

The lower volatility displayed in the rates of growth measured by the two-quarter chart underlies the forecasting ability of our GDP forecasting tool, for which we'll provide an updated forecast next week.

Labels: ,

About Political Calculations



blog advertising
is good for you

Welcome to the blogosphere's toolchest! Here, unlike other blogs dedicated to analyzing current events, we create easy-to-use, simple tools to do the math related to them so you can get in on the action too! If you would like to learn more about these tools, or if you would like to contribute ideas to develop for this blog, please e-mail us at:

ironman at politicalcalculations.com

Thanks in advance!

Recent Posts

Applications

This year, we'll be experimenting with a number of apps to bring more of a current events focus to Political Calculations - we're test driving the app(s) below!

Most Popular Posts
Quick Index

Site Data

This site is primarily powered by:

This page is powered by Blogger. Isn't yours?

Visitors since December 6, 2004:

CSS Validation

Valid CSS!

RSS Site Feed

AddThis Feed Button

JavaScript

The tools on this site are built using JavaScript. If you would like to learn more, one of the best free resources on the web is available at W3Schools.com.

Other Cool Resources

Blog Roll

Market Links
Charities We Support
Recommended Reading
Recommended Viewing
Recently Shopped

Seeking Alpha Certified

Archives
Legal Disclaimer

Materials on this website are published by Political Calculations to provide visitors with free information and insights regarding the incentives created by the laws and policies described. However, this website is not designed for the purpose of providing legal, medical or financial advice to individuals. Visitors should not rely upon information on this website as a substitute for personal legal, medical or financial advice. While we make every effort to provide accurate website information, laws can change and inaccuracies happen despite our best efforts. If you have an individual problem, you should seek advice from a licensed professional in your state, i.e., by a competent authority with specialized knowledge who can apply it to the particular circumstances of your case.