Unexpectedly Intriguing!
August 14, 2014

Going by the year-over-year growth rate of of the value of trade between the United States and China, which we've adjusted to account for the changing currency exchange rate for each nation's currency, it would appear that the U.S. economy rebounded in June 2014, while China's economy decelerated slightly.

Year Over Year Growth Rate of U.S.-China Trade, January 1986 - July 2013

Taking the average of each month's year-over-year growth rate for the first and second quarter of 2014, we find that on average, the value of China's imports to the U.S. in 2014-Q2 grew twice as fast as they did in 2014-Q1, at an average rate of 7.8% versus the first quarter's 3.7%.

At the same time, the growth rate of the value of the U.S.' exports to China grew substantially slower in 2014-Q2 than in 2014-Q1, falling to 3.7% in the second quarter compared to the average 8.3% that the U.S. exports increased in the first quarter.

That recent trend appears set to continue into the third quarter of 2014 according to China's less reliable trade data:

BEIJING—China's exports surged in July on the back of strong demand from the U.S., Europe and Southeast Asia, while imports fell, surprising markets on both counts and resulting in a record monthly trade surplus.

The news was largely welcome in Beijing, as the world's second-largest economy struggles to regain growth- and foreign-trade momentum after this year's weak start, although negative import growth underscores continued weak domestic demand.

According to figures released by the General Administration of Customs on Friday, exports expanded 14.5% year-over-year, nearly double the 8% growth forecast by 15 economists in a Wall Street Journal survey and a sharp increase from the 7.2% year-over-year increase recorded in June.

Imports, meanwhile, fell 1.6% during the same period, following a 5.5% on-year expansion in June. The survey predicted a 3% rise.

The rate of growth of the value of goods imported by a country provides a key indication of its relative economic health. A nation that is experiencing more robust economic growth will tend to import an increasing value of goods, while a nation importing a falling level of goods indicates that its economy is experiencing contractionary conditions.

References

Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. China / U.S. Foreign Exchange Rate. G.5 Foreign Exchange Rates. Accessed 11 September 2013.

U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. Employment Situation Report Archive. Accessed 11 September 2013.

U.S. Census Bureau. Trade in Goods with China. Accessed 11 September 2013.

Labels:

About Political Calculations



blog advertising
is good for you

Welcome to the blogosphere's toolchest! Here, unlike other blogs dedicated to analyzing current events, we create easy-to-use, simple tools to do the math related to them so you can get in on the action too! If you would like to learn more about these tools, or if you would like to contribute ideas to develop for this blog, please e-mail us at:

ironman at politicalcalculations.com

Thanks in advance!

Recent Posts

Applications

This year, we'll be experimenting with a number of apps to bring more of a current events focus to Political Calculations - we're test driving the app(s) below!

Most Popular Posts
Quick Index

Site Data

This site is primarily powered by:

This page is powered by Blogger. Isn't yours?

Visitors since December 6, 2004:

CSS Validation

Valid CSS!

RSS Site Feed

AddThis Feed Button

JavaScript

The tools on this site are built using JavaScript. If you would like to learn more, one of the best free resources on the web is available at W3Schools.com.

Other Cool Resources

Blog Roll

Market Links
Charities We Support
Recommended Reading
Recommended Viewing
Recently Shopped

Seeking Alpha Certified

Archives
Legal Disclaimer

Materials on this website are published by Political Calculations to provide visitors with free information and insights regarding the incentives created by the laws and policies described. However, this website is not designed for the purpose of providing legal, medical or financial advice to individuals. Visitors should not rely upon information on this website as a substitute for personal legal, medical or financial advice. While we make every effort to provide accurate website information, laws can change and inaccuracies happen despite our best efforts. If you have an individual problem, you should seek advice from a licensed professional in your state, i.e., by a competent authority with specialized knowledge who can apply it to the particular circumstances of your case.