Unexpectedly Intriguing!
April 8, 2015

After following China into recessionary growth levels in January 2015, at least as suggested by the exchange rate adjusted value of goods and services it trades with that nation, the U.S.' economic situation would at first glance have appeared to improve, while China's economic situation deteriorated.

Year Over Year Growth Rate of Exchange Rate Adjusted U.S.-China Trade in Goods and Services, January 1986 - Present

Dealing with China's situation first, it would seem to have reached the point where China's leaders have begun to acknowledge its rapid economic deceleration.

The Chinese government has admitted for the first time that things aren't going so well.

China's top banker, Zhou Xiaochuan, told a meeting of regional leaders that his country's growth rate had tumbled "a bit too much."

Moving on to what the trade data says of the U.S.' own economic situation, we suspect that the West Coast port labor slowdown action has a lot to do with the relatively favorable trade balance that was recorded for the month. Here, because of the large mismatch in the volume of goods between the two nations, where the volume of goods arriving from China is much greater than the volume of goods departing the United States, we think that while the U.S.' intake of goods from China may have been slowed as a result of the labor action, there was likely almost no impact on the outflow of U.S. goods.

That matters because the relative decrease in the nation's trade deficit with China that would result from that outcome would boost the U.S.' official GDP numbers.

The reality though is captured by the year-over-year growth rate of the U.S.' imports from China, which is really hovering around the zero mark, and which is consistent with a sluggish-to-no-growth scenario for the U.S. economy during the month of February 2015.

References

Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. China / U.S. Foreign Exchange Rate. G.5 Foreign Exchange Rates. Accessed 5 April 2015.

U.S. Census Bureau. Trade in Goods with China. Accessed 5 April 2015.

Labels: ,

About Political Calculations



blog advertising
is good for you

Welcome to the blogosphere's toolchest! Here, unlike other blogs dedicated to analyzing current events, we create easy-to-use, simple tools to do the math related to them so you can get in on the action too! If you would like to learn more about these tools, or if you would like to contribute ideas to develop for this blog, please e-mail us at:

ironman at politicalcalculations.com

Thanks in advance!

Recent Posts

Applications

This year, we'll be experimenting with a number of apps to bring more of a current events focus to Political Calculations - we're test driving the app(s) below!

Most Popular Posts
Quick Index

Site Data

This site is primarily powered by:

This page is powered by Blogger. Isn't yours?

Visitors since December 6, 2004:

CSS Validation

Valid CSS!

RSS Site Feed

AddThis Feed Button

JavaScript

The tools on this site are built using JavaScript. If you would like to learn more, one of the best free resources on the web is available at W3Schools.com.

Other Cool Resources

Blog Roll

Market Links
Charities We Support
Recommended Reading
Recommended Viewing
Recently Shopped

Seeking Alpha Certified

Archives
Legal Disclaimer

Materials on this website are published by Political Calculations to provide visitors with free information and insights regarding the incentives created by the laws and policies described. However, this website is not designed for the purpose of providing legal, medical or financial advice to individuals. Visitors should not rely upon information on this website as a substitute for personal legal, medical or financial advice. While we make every effort to provide accurate website information, laws can change and inaccuracies happen despite our best efforts. If you have an individual problem, you should seek advice from a licensed professional in your state, i.e., by a competent authority with specialized knowledge who can apply it to the particular circumstances of your case.