S&P 500 (Index: SPX) are slashing both earnings and dividends on net, and yet, the S&P 500 managed to rise during the trading week ending on Friday, 8 May 2020, recovering much of the ground it lost in the latter part of the last week.
Perhaps more remarkably, it did so while tracking closely with the centerline of the redzone forecast range as presented on the alternative futures spaghetti forecast chart based on the dividend futures-based model over the last several weeks, which confirms that what is happening to stock prices in the upside down market the Fed has created since 13 April 2020 has been predictable.
How long that might continue is anyone's guess, because it is contingent on how long the Fed can sustain the upside down market, which has become an actively asked question among multiple market analysts.
Meanwhile, here are the more notable headlines we tagged for their market-moving potential in today's upside down market.
- Monday, 4 May 2020
- Inside the U.S. economy:
- Oil up 3% as countries ease lockdowns, production falls
- U.S. mortgage firms push for support as borrowers halt payments
- Trump says up to 100,000 Americans may die from coronavirus
- Trump administration pushing to rip global supply chains from China: officials
- Bigger trouble developing all over, especially in the Eurozone:
- Pandemic slams global factories, activity sinks to new lows
- Euro zone manufacturing collapses in April as virus spreads: PMI
- Recovery plans taking shape:
- U.S. Treasury's Mnuchin says Trump eyeing restaurant tax changes, travel boost
- Fed's Barkin: New business practices, job retraining key to U.S. recovery
- New York Fed turns to Magic 8-Ball for forecast:
- Wall Street snaps two-day slump on lift from tech titans
- Tuesday, 5 May 2020
- Bigger trouble developing in the Eurozone, Fed minion weighs in:
- Euro zone producer prices plunge more than expected in March
- Bullard: Europe seems to be struggling to find proper economic response to pandemic
- ECB minions got some 'splainin' to do:
- German court hands ECB three-month ultimatum to justify stimulus scheme
- German court ruling ties ECB's hands - now and in the future
- ECB committed to easy policy even after court ruling
- The coming end run?: EU law and EU top court have primacy over German national law: EU Commission
- Fed minions flood the zone to spread hope, cheer, and confidence:
- Fed's Evans says 'reasonable' to expect U.S. growth in second half of 2020
- Bullard: U.S. faces new problems if pandemic, shutdown, persist to 2nd half of year
- Fed's Bostic: Pace of U.S. economic recovery will vary across nation
- Fed's Clarida says U.S. unemployment could surge to worst level in decades
- Fed's Brainard: virus crisis demands broad, creative response
- Wall Street rises as lockdowns ease, healthcare shares jump
- Wednesday, 6 May 2020
- Coronavirus pandemic continues to roil U.S. economy:
- Oil falls to below $30/bbl as glut grows, output cuts eyed
- U.S. private payrolls dive by a record 20.2 million
- Even bigger trouble developing in the Eurozone:
- Euro zone set for record recession, inflation to vanish-Commission
- Euro zone retail sales suffer largest fall on record in March
- Euro zone business activity ground to near-halt in April: PMI
- Our way or no way? German ECB ruling rocks EU foundations
- Bigger trouble being felt in China:
- Fed minions consider the economy, what the Fed will buy and what it won't:
- Fed's Bullard: Drop in U.S. payrolls 'not a surprise' given shutdowns - CNBC
- Fed's Barkin: Best 'stimulus' would be consistency about reopening protocols
- Fed lending program not for insolvent oil drillers, Kaplan says
- As central banks break the junk debt barrier, investors will follow
- U.S. Treasury launches 20-year bond to help finance record borrowing
- S&P 500, Dow drop as financial sector declines counter tech gains
- Thursday, 7 May 2020
- Oil bounces on China exports growth:
- Bigger trouble still developing all over:
- China's services sector contracts for third month as job losses hit record: Caixin PMI
- Bank of England sees worst slump in 300 years as coronavirus bites
- Virus-hit German industry output falls at record pace in March
- Philippines faces recession as virus shuts down economy
- ECB minions thump chests after legality of policies challenged:
- German court ruling will not get in ECB's way: Makhlouf
- Pushing back on German court, ECB says more determined than ever
- Fed minions contemplating economic recovery, damage, negative interest rates:
- Fed's Bostic: Recovery hinges on permanence of unemployment
- "It's Devastating": Kashkari Says Real Unemployment Rate Is As High As 24%
- U.S. Fed won't take rates negative, say fund managers, economists
- Wall Street gets PayPal lift as Nasdaq wipes out 2020 declines
- Friday, 8 May 2020
- Coronavirus deals U.S. job losses of 20.5 million, historic unemployment rate in April
- U.S. labor market shatters post World War 2 records as coronavirus lockdowns bite
- Explainer: Why 14.7% unemployment rate doesn't capture the true state of the coronavirus economy
- U.S. joblessness slams Latinos, less educated with brutal force
- Bigger trouble developing in Canada, Mexico:
- Canada loses record 2 million jobs; temporary layoffs hide extent of damage
- Mexico car exports, production nosedive amid coronavirus crisis
- Bigger stimulus ever so slowly developing in the Eurozone, as bureaucratic turf wars among EU, ECB minions fracture response:
- EU aiming to agree first part of coronavirus economic rescue, but work unfinished
- Germany's Scholz expects final agreement on ESM credit line for virus-hit countries
- Top EU court says it alone decides if EU bodies are breaking bloc's rules
- EU project at stake if recovery fund not agreed soon, Gentiloni says
- Ban on dividends, share buybacks for bailed-out EU firms
- Fed minions pondering negative rates, U.S. bank solvency:
- Explainer: Fed funds futures market sees negative rates by next April
- Fed to augment bank stress tests with pandemic-focused 'analyses' of bank finances
- Next phase of U.S. fiscal stimulus on slower track following March-April binge:
- Wall Street jumps as historic job losses fewer than feared
Need more context to go with the past week in market history? Barry Ritholtz has more of what he found notable in the week's markets and economy-related news, broken down into the categories of positives and negatives.
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