The S&P 500 (Index: SPX) closed out the first week of December 2020 at a new high, its third of the week, just under the 3,700 threshold.
Through most of the week, the anticipated coronavirus vaccine-enabled recovery boosted expectations for future dividends. On Friday however, the market's momentum was marginally aided by the prospect of a long-delayed relief bill for Americans economically harmed by the pandemic finally moving forward, as U.S. House of Representatives Speaker Nancy Pelosi acknowledged her role in blocking any relief bill for months and indicated she was now receptive to a more sensible spending bill than the version she had previously been pushing without any consideration of compromise.
In the latest update to the alternative futures chart, we find investors are still focused on the distant future quarter of 2021-Q3 in setting current day stock prices.
That's a much easier observation to make this week, because the short term echo of past volatility that's disrupted the dividend futures-based model's projections of the future for S&P 500 stock prices has come to an end.
Meanwhile, the week that was saw a light load for market-moving news. Here are the more notable headlines we pulled from the week's newstream.
- Monday, 30 November 2020
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- Signs and portents for the U.S. economy:
- Oil prices fall as OPEC+ output talks uncertain
- U.S. housing, manufacturing data suggest economic recovery slowing
- Treasury's Mnuchin urges Congress to tap unused CARES Act funds for COVID relief
- Fed minions to continue emergency liquidity operations, Chief minion says months of challenge ahead:
- Fed says extending four emergency liquidity programs to March 31, 2021
- Powell: 'Challenging' months until vaccine clears production, distribution hurdles
- Bigger trouble developing in China, deflation in Germany:
- China banking regulator says property market is biggest 'grey rhino'
- German inflation falls deeper into negative territory after VAT cut
- Bigger stimulus developing in Eurozone, China and Japan's factories busy:
- Euro zone may need more fiscal, monetary support because of second COVID wave: IMF
- China's factory activity expands at fastest pace in over three years
- Japan factory output grows for fifth month, retail sales surge
- S&P 500 ends down after rallying to best November ever
- Tuesday, 1 December 2020
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- Signs and portents for the U.S. economy:
- Oil slides as OPEC+ delays decision on output cuts
- Bipartisan U.S. lawmakers, Senate leader McConnell float new coronavirus aid bills
- Mnuchin, Powell hone in on need to aid U.S. small businesses
- Yellen says urgent action needed to prevent self-reinforcing economic downturn
- U.S. factory activity slows; COVID-19 resurgence hits workers
- Fed minions both want more stimulus and don't want more stimulus:
- Fed's Evans says economy 'screams out' for more fiscal help
- Fed's Daly says not yet time to stimulate economy aggressively
- Bigger trouble developing in Eurozone:
- Euro zone factory recovery faltered in November, vaccine hopes drive optimism: PMI
- Euro zone factories lagging Asia's recovery from COVID-19 crisis
- Euro zone inflation drop adds to ECB stimulus case
- S&P 500, Nasdaq end at record highs on vaccine optimism
- Wednesday, 2 December 2020
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- Signs and portents for the U.S. economy:
- Oil prices rise on UK vaccine approval; signs OPEC+ may maintain output cuts
- Mnuchin, Powell press again for deal to get economy through the COVID winter
- Biden says will not kill Phase 1 trade deal with China immediately: NYT
- Fed minions see slowing economy, blame virus, want more government spending:
- Fed sees little to no growth in much of U.S. as stress mounts
- NY Fed's Williams: U.S. economic growth is slowing as fiscal aid fades
- Fed's Harker: U.S. economy 'plateauing' because of virus, lack of fiscal help
- Bigger stimulus developing in Japan, Australia economy rebounds:
- BOJ ready to extend aid for pandemic-hit firms, deputy governor says
- Australia's economy rebounds sharply in third-quarter from COVID-19 recession
- S&P 500 hits record as investors await fiscal deal
- Thursday, 3 December 2020
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- Signs and portents for the U.S. economy:
- Brent rises to highest since March after OPEC+ output cut deal
- Trump says he will support a coronavirus relief bill
- U.S. weekly jobless claims fall; services sector activity slows
- Positive recovery signs in Brazil, China:
- Brazil GDP rebounds sharply in third quarter, but stimulus withdrawal looms large
- Growth in China's services sector soars on stronger consumer demand: Caixin PMI
- Nasdaq hits record high, S&P 500 ends lower
- Friday, 4 December 2020
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- Signs and portents for the U.S. economy:
- Oil rises, hovers below $50/bbl on hopes for U.S. stimulus
- U.S. COVID-19 relief talks gain momentum as lawmakers set Monday deadline
- U.S. labor market losing steam as COVID-19 pandemic rages
- U.S. factory orders increase more than expected in October
- Fed minions expected to sit on their hands:
- Analysis: Rising economic risks, but Fed likely won't tweak bond-buying for now
- Fed's Evans: comfortable with current bond-buying, not opposed to more easing
- China gains as other nations' economies hit by coronavirus surges:
- Wall Street hits highs as slowing job growth spurs stimulus bets
Over at The Big Picture, Barry Ritholtz wraps up the week that was by listing the positives and negatives he found in the week's economics and markets news.
Finally, this article is part of our ongoing S&P 500 chaos series, which had its origins almost exactly 12 years ago here.
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