The rate at which carbon dioxide accumulates in the Earth's atmosphere has fallen back to levels that were typical at the beginning of 2008-2009's Great Recession.
You can see that development in the following chart tracking the trailing twelve month average of the year-over-year change recorded in measurements of atmospheric carbon dioxide at the remote Mauna Loa Observatory in the Pacific Ocean.
China's 2022 COVID lockdowns have played an outsize role in creating that outcome, with China's economy slumping in the second quarter of the year to its lowest level since 1991 because of them.
Turning back to the CO₂ data, June 2022's decline occurred despite China lifting most of its COVID lockdowns from the spring, allowing economic activity to resume within the country. That activity is confirmed by increases in roadway congestion and in goods moving through its ports.
We think that June 2022's decline may be explained by decreased economic activity elsewhere in the world. For example, there are strong indications the real U.S. economy shrank in the second quarter of 2022, which would offset positive GDP growth in China's economy during June 2022.
References
National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration. Earth System Research Laboratory. Mauna Loa Observatory CO2 Data. [Text File]. Updated 11 July 2022. Accessed 11 July 2022.
Labels: environment, gdp
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