Political Calculations
Unexpectedly Intriguing!
05 October 2015
Original Edition - S.A. Nelson - The A B C of Stock Speculation - Copyright 1902

Not long ago, we came across a first edition copy of Samuel A. Nelson's The A B C of Stock Speculation, copyrighted in 1902, and published as Volume V in Nelson's Wall Street Library series.

The book is significant because it collected a number of the columns that Charles Dow, the originator of the Dow Jones Industrial stock market index, had originally published in the Wall Street Journal on the subject of how to analyze stock prices to determine the best times to either buy or sell shares of stock.

Published after Dow's death, it was the world's introduction to what would become known as a result of the publication of this book as Dow Theory, which has proven to be amazingly influential and is still being actively applied by a number of stock market analysts today. Here is Barnes & Noble's overview for the 2007 reprint of the book:

"Speculation is a venture based on calculation."

First published in 1903, The ABC of Stock Speculation is a landmark achievement for the profession of stock speculation. This book not only established our modern view of the fundamentals of speculation, it did so through the precise and insightful writings of Charles H. Dow, coined in this book as Dow's Theory.

Nelson, friend and admirer of Dow (first editor of the Wall Street Journal and co-founder of the Dow Jones Industrial Average), sensed that Dow had developed a philosophy, some say subconsciously, which speculators and businessmen could adapt as a reliable guide for conducting their financial operations. After failing to persuade Dow to write his own book, Nelson spent long hours researching the Wall Street Journal for the most exceptional Dow editorials, 15 of which he included in this book.

It has been over 100 years-yet even in today's tech-heavy, volatile markets, the basic components of Dow Theory, technical analysis, price action, and market philosophy, still hold true. Nelson says it best, "Men rather than markets differ."

Needless to say, the book has been amazingly influential over the years and is still in print. You can buy your own modern copy via Amazon.com ($0.99 for the Kindle edition, $28.91 for Hardcover or $12.15 for paperback). Or you could read a scanned copy of the original edition online for free at the Internet Archive's openlibrary.org or via Google's ebook edition.

But when published in 1903, the book sold for $1.50, which in terms of the purchasing power of the dollars of 110+ years later, works out to be about $41.00. In 1907, a copy of the book could be purchased for less than half that, for $0.60, which surprisingly corresponds to purchasing power of $38.40 in the terms of today's dollars.

Today, a first edition copy like the one pictured above can have asking prices of anywhere from $350 to $650 depending upon how well it has held up over time. And for what it's worth, based on its condition, our original edition would fall somewhere in the middle of that range.

We see then that the price in dollars that one might pay to learn Dow's Theory in his own words ranges anywhere from $0 to $650.

So how much is Dow's Theory worth?

If it is just the words, you can have them for the price of an Internet connection and whatever electricity you consume as you review them or the price of whatever modern physical edition of the text that you might choose to purchase. If it is the first edition of the book that is what is valuable, then the question gets a lot more difficult to answer as you might consider it an investment worth speculating in as the value might rise or fall as time progresses.

Since that would mean that the problem has been reduced to a speculative calculation, could you use Dow's Theory to answer the question? And if you cannot, just how much is Dow's Theory worth?

Labels: , , ,

29 August 2014

What if you could hack your brain to boost your IQ? Would you do it? How can you do it?

Garth Sundem, author of Geek Logik, one of our all time favorites, is back in print with Beyond IQ, which taps the expertise of today's top researchers in psychology for how to expand your mental abilities.

And all you need to get started is this book, a 9-volt battery, a couple of wires, a 2 milli-Amp resistor and two moist sponges to attach to your head and your left arm....

Seriously! At least if you're as serious as the U.S. Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency (DARPA), which has used a device that's just a little more sophisticated than the one you could make yourself using the parts we listed above, which just happens to have the capability of doubling the speed at which military recruits learn to recognize and neutralize threats in DARPA's combat simulations.

More seriously, you have to jump ahead to Chapter 6 to get to the part of the book that describes how and why you might want to try that sort of thing out, but that brings us to something else that we've learned in reading Garth's books. You don't have to read them from front to back - in fact, they're often better if you skip from one chapter to another in no particular order, since they often stand on their own.

That reading approach really works well with Beyond IQ because Garth often presents brain-stretching exercises after a short discussion of the main concept in each chapter, where we suggest skipping over the exercises to read the snippets of insights presented at the end of each chapter, then coming back to the exercises when you really want to take a deep dive into a particular concept.

In putting the book together, Garth interviewed over 35 scientists doing real world research into the potential for getting more and better performance out of the human brain and the book also works well as a general introduction into the current state of the art in intelligence research. And in fact, a number of the exercises presented in the book are taken directly from their professional journal papers.

Highly recommended. You'll get smarter if you read it!

Previously on Political Calculations

Tools and posts inspired by Garth Sundem's Geek Logik:

Our Reviews of Other Books by Garth Sundem

Labels: , ,

07 May 2007

Greg Mankiw's advertisement for his economics texts today provides a neat springboard to do one of our favorite things with his Principles of Economics: to compare its relative prices in different markets!

When we did this exercise back in December 2006, we found that UK-based buyers of Mankiw's 4th edition of his Principles of Economics text had a 4% discount compared to their US-based counterparts.

Shortly thereafter, we found that the comparative discount that UK buyers of Mankiw's text could obtain through purchasing it through the US-based Amazon.com disappeared, as the US price increased to eliminate the difference between the US price and the price available through the UK-based Amazon.co.uk.

This makes sense in economic theory, as the lower price of an identical product in a different market represented an arbitrage opportunity for UK buyers of Mankiw's book. The US price moved to a new equilibrium that effectively eliminated the difference in prices between the two markets, leading to the efficient result of one price for identical products, much as happens with the price of other commodities, such as oil.

So, let's now check in on today's state of affairs. First, we'll look at a screen shot of Mankiw's book on Amazon.co.uk:

Mankiw Principle of Economics 4th ed - Amazon.co.uk (UK)

Using XE.com's Universal Currency Converter, we find that the equivalent of Mankiw's 75.00 GBP price in the UK is 149.65 USD:

Mankiw Principles of Economics US Price to UK Price Conversion, 7 May 2007

Now, let's look at today's price of Mankiw's text on US-based Amazon.com: Mankiw Principles of Economics 4th ed - Amazon.com (US)

Here, we find that Mankiw's book is selling at 134.23 USD. Converting that price from USD to GBP:

At 67.28 GBP, UK-based buyers of Mankiw's book through the US-based Amazon.com would realize a savings of 10.72 GBP, or rather, 14.3% off the book's base price in the UK. What's more, even factoring in international shipping costs (approximately 6.98 GBP) and the 1.99 GBP sourcing fee, UK buyers would still come out ahead!

If you're in the UK, act now while "Madman" Mankiw's screaming buy lasts!

Labels: , ,

04 December 2006

We're fans of the Coyote here at Political Calculations, so the news that Warren Meyer's new book BMOC is doing well on Amazon.com this morning really makes us wonder just what the online retailer's sales ranks mean in terms of number of units sold. So we did some research to find out if anyone had ever worked out how to convert an Amazon sales rank to and equivalent number of units sold.

We were in luck - someone had! Unfortunately, while they included a nice graph of sales rank vs. book sales, they didn't provide any curve-fitting formulas that we could simply plug into one of our tools. So, using a sophisticated technique called "eyeballing," where we look closely at a graph to figure out what points the curve passes through, we reverse-engineered a set of formulas that form the basis for our latest tool: the Amazon.com Sales Rank to Number of Books Sold Converter!

Okay, the title of the tool needs a little bit of work, but at least you know what it does: approximate the number of books sold represented by Amazon's sales rank. We observe that these values are only approximations, since we would expect book sales to vary by seasonal factors as well as more mundane matters (like marketing campaigns). We'll also note that the number of sales for top-ranked books likely varies wildly (for instance, a new Harry Potter book might dwarf the sales of the #2 through #100 titles.) But, if for no other reason than bragging rights, we can put a somewhat realistic number of books sold with Amazon's sales ranks for the more typical rankings:

Amazon Sales Rank
Input Data Values
Amazon Sales Rank

Number of Books Sold
Calculated Results Values
Daily Book Sales

We've entered the Amazon sales rank for BMOC from this morning as our default data in the tool above. Warren indicates that the rank fluctuates up and down, so you may need to check its rank several times to get a good sense of how many books per day that readers are buying.

In any case, our source for the graph provides the following insight for authors with books listed on Amazon:

Read an average rank of 1,000 to mean you have a seriously successful title, an average rank of 10,000 to mean your doing pretty good for a book that's no bestseller, an average rank of 100,000 to mean it's not going to contribute significantly to your income, and an average rank of 1,000,000 to mean you only need to check a couple times a year to compute the average rank.

Here's wishing success to BMOC!

Worth Reading Elsewhere

Labels: ,

About Political Calculations

Welcome to the blogosphere's toolchest! Here, unlike other blogs dedicated to analyzing current events, we create easy-to-use, simple tools to do the math related to them so you can get in on the action too! If you would like to learn more about these tools, or if you would like to contribute ideas to develop for this blog, please e-mail us at:

ironman at politicalcalculations

Thanks in advance!

Recent Posts

Indices, Futures, and Bonds

Closing values for previous trading day.

Most Popular Posts
Quick Index

Site Data

This site is primarily powered by:

This page is powered by Blogger. Isn't yours?

CSS Validation

Valid CSS!

RSS Site Feed

AddThis Feed Button

JavaScript

The tools on this site are built using JavaScript. If you would like to learn more, one of the best free resources on the web is available at W3Schools.com.

Other Cool Resources

Blog Roll

Market Links

Useful Election Data
Charities We Support
Shopping Guides
Recommended Reading
Recently Shopped

Seeking Alpha Certified

Archives