Unexpectedly Intriguing!
29 June 2022

What does the future hold for the dividends of the S&P 500 (Index: SPX)?

We're now in the gap between when the index' dividend futures contracts for 2022-Q2 have expired and the actual end of the calendar quarter, which makes it a good time to see what investors expect for the rest of the year. The good news is the outlook for the quarterly dividends per share of the S&P 500 has continued improving since we last checked them at the midpoint of 2022-Q2. Better yet, the futures data extends through 2023-Q2 so we can peer into the first half of 2023.

The following chart reveals those expectations as of Monday, 27 June 2022:

Past and Projected Quarterly Dividends Per Share Futures for S&P 500, 2021-Q2 Through 2023-Q1, Snapshot on 27 June 2022

Here's how the dividend futures have changed since our previous snapshot:

  • 2022-Q2: Up $0.07 per share.
  • 2022-Q3: Up $0.35 per share.
  • 2022-Q4: Up $0.50 per share.

These increases indicate an improved outlook for the S&P 500's dividends has developed over the last six weeks, which you would think would have boosted stock prices during this time. If you've been watching the stock market, you know they've fallen significantly instead and if you've been following our S&P 500 chaos series, you already know why the index has behaved as it has despite its improving outlook.

But this improving outlook may be in jeopardy. With recessionary risks now rising in the U.S., expectations for future dividends will take a greater role in shaping how stock prices behave. That's why we're increasing the cadence for presenting and analyzing future dividend data, which we'll now do at roughly six week intervals. Our next update will arrive in mid-August 2022 and will present the Summer 2022 snapshot of the future for S&P 500 dividends.

About Dividend Futures

Dividend futures indicate the amount of dividends per share to be paid out over the period covered by each quarters dividend futures contracts, which start on the day after the preceding quarter's dividend futures contracts expire and end on the third Friday of the month ending the indicated quarter. So for example, as determined by dividend futures contracts, the "current" quarter of 2022-Q3 began on Saturday, 18 March 2022 and will end on Friday, 16 September 2022.

That makes these figures different from the quarterly dividends per share figures reported by Standard and Poor, who reports the amount of dividends per share paid out during regular calendar quarters after the end of each quarter. This term mismatch accounts for the differences in dividends reported by both sources, with the biggest differences between the two typically seen in the first and fourth quarters of each year.

Reference

The past and projected data shown in this chart is from the CME Group's S&P 500 quarterly dividend index futures. The past data reflects the values reported by CME Group on the date the associated dividend futures contract expired, while the projected data reflects the values reported on 27 June 2022.

Labels: , ,

About Political Calculations

Welcome to the blogosphere's toolchest! Here, unlike other blogs dedicated to analyzing current events, we create easy-to-use, simple tools to do the math related to them so you can get in on the action too! If you would like to learn more about these tools, or if you would like to contribute ideas to develop for this blog, please e-mail us at:

ironman at politicalcalculations.com

Thanks in advance!

Recent Posts

Indices, Futures, and Bonds

Closing values for previous trading day.

Most Popular Posts
Quick Index

Site Data

This site is primarily powered by:

This page is powered by Blogger. Isn't yours?

CSS Validation

Valid CSS!

RSS Site Feed

AddThis Feed Button

JavaScript

The tools on this site are built using JavaScript. If you would like to learn more, one of the best free resources on the web is available at W3Schools.com.

Other Cool Resources

Blog Roll

Market Links

Useful Election Data
Charities We Support
Shopping Guides
Recommended Reading
Recently Shopped

Seeking Alpha Certified

Archives
Legal Disclaimer

Materials on this website are published by Political Calculations to provide visitors with free information and insights regarding the incentives created by the laws and policies described. However, this website is not designed for the purpose of providing legal, medical or financial advice to individuals. Visitors should not rely upon information on this website as a substitute for personal legal, medical or financial advice. While we make every effort to provide accurate website information, laws can change and inaccuracies happen despite our best efforts. If you have an individual problem, you should seek advice from a licensed professional in your state, i.e., by a competent authority with specialized knowledge who can apply it to the particular circumstances of your case.