Where the immediate direction of the U.S. stock market is concerned, a man named Howard Silverblatt may very well be the most powerful man in the world.
That's not because he magically manipulates the market like a marionette, but rather, because he produces one of the leading forecasts for the S&P 500 stock market index' dividends per share. That forecast, among others, can directly drive stock prices through a process that we observe to be the result of a combination of deterministic chaos and noise.
And right now, the world is waiting for Howard Silverblatt, who himself is waiting:
"I've been chicken to put out the 2009 dividend forecast. I usually do it in December, but I'm waiting to see what happens in Washington," said Howard Silverblatt, senior index analyst at Standard & Poor's.
If it helps overcome Howard's fears, rather than the whole year, we would find it most useful if he would simply nail down a value for the S&P 500's dividends per share for the current first quarter of 2009. We have additional sources that we can use to project data for future quarters beyond that, but alas, are not able to capture the current one.
And speaking of anticipating stock prices, well, let's just hope you're ready for the ride. Your nervous nirvana awaits....
Update 4 March 2009: Howard Silverblatt has manned up!
We should have updated this on 12 February 2009!
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