Assuming typical levels of noise in the markets, and in the 1 in 5 chance that a short-term correction that may be waiting in the wings will stay there, we can expect the average of the daily closing values for the S&P 500 to fall into a range between 1289 and 1321 during February 2011.
Our first chart shows why we think so:
Our second chart shows our track record for predicting where the S&P 500 will go a month ahead of time:
We'll leave it as an exercise to our investing-oriented readers to work out what our up-or-down call accuracy might be.
Labels: forecasting, investing, SP 500, track record
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Closing values for previous trading day.
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