Political Calculations
July 24, 2012

Italy is the eighth largest economy in the world and the second-biggest manufacturing economy in Europe. The Italian government's tax collections from year to year have been near rock-steady as a percentage share of the country's GDP and, for over a decade now, the country has been running comparatively small annual budget deficits.

Italy Government Spending and Tax Revenue per Capita vs 
GDP per Capita, 2000-2011

And yet, the Italian government is now behaving as if its financial situation is so dire that the nation itself is in imminent danger of going under.

How exactly does that happen?

The short answer is that Italy is burdened by the policies of its past. In the 1980s, the nation began running up a truly phenomenal national debt in a short period of time, peaking at over 120% of the country's GDP in 1994, before falling back to be below 105% of GDP in 2007. Since then, it has ballooned back over 120% of GDP.

Italian Government Debt (% of GDP)

Starting from such a high level, Italy had little room to be able to absorb the impact from financial crises within its borders, such as the one driving markets today, where the Italian province of Sicily is at risk of defaulting on its own public debts and obligations.

PALERMO: As the Prime Minister, Mario Monti, fights to protect Italy from the contagion driving up its borrowing costs to perilous levels, one region in particular has been in the spotlight: Sicily, which some fear has become "the Greece" of Italy, at risk of defaulting on its high public debts.

Mr Monti wrote to Sicily's regional president last week warning that he had "serious concerns" that the region was at risk of default. The day before, an official in the Sicily branch of Italy's leading industrialists' association called for the island to be put into receivership by the central government to clean up its finances.

When headlines about a potential Sicilian default ricocheted around the globe, the government quickly played down concerns and said it would send €400 million ($469 million), to ease Sicily's liquidity crunch so it could continue to pay salaries and pensions. One government official said Mr Monti's letter had been intended for a domestic audience and that Sicily's problems could not spread to other Italian regions.

But with Europe's debt crisis, local politics quickly become international problems. And the flare-up over Sicily highlights the challenges that Mr Monti is facing in trying to use pressure from European leaders and international markets to push Italy's political class to cut costs.

The equivalent situation in the United States would be for the U.S. government to be forced to provide special financing for the state of Illinois, so it could continue functioning.

The problem though is the amount of borrowing the government would have to do to prop up the fiscally failing region. With such a high national debt level already, the government would have to add even more to it to fund its bailout, increasing the risk of a default.

Lenders respond to that situation by demanding higher interest rates on the money they loan to the government. The critical threshold appears to be when a country's bond yields (the interest rates that governments pay to the people who loan them money) rise above 7%, when bond traders have to begin posting more collateral because the government-issued debt has become riskier to bond investors, who must weigh in the increased probability that Italy will default on its debt to them.

If Italy's national debt burden, its national debt to national income (GDP) ratio hadn't already been so high, it would have been in a much better position to weather the crisis. Unfortunately, that high debt level and Europe's deteriorating economic situation have combined to put Italy at imminent risk of a fiscal crisis.

In other words, Italy has run out of its national debt safety margin. It is at imminent risk of failing today because of the crushing burden of its old debt, unlike other nations going through their own debt crises in the Eurozone:

... Italy - and Sicily in particular - has been driven into dire financial straits not by austerity but by the rampant public spending of the past, the product of an entrenched jobs-for-votes system that helped keep Italian governments in power and Sicilians employed.

Last month, Italy's audit court issued a scathing report saying that Sicily had €7 billion of liabilities at the end of 2011 and showed "signs of unstoppable decline". Sicily's unemployment rate is 19.5 per cent, twice the national average, and 38.8 per cent of young people do not have jobs.

Eventually, the supply of other people's money runs out and a long-delayed reckoning with reality takes place. For Italy, it appears that reckoning with its wasteful spending past will take place much sooner than its past leaders had hoped.

Labels: ,



<< Home
Unexpectedly Intriguing!

About Political Calculations



blog advertising
is good for you

Welcome to the blogosphere's toolchest! Here, unlike other blogs dedicated to analyzing current events, we create easy-to-use, simple tools to do the math related to them so you can get in on the action too! If you would like to learn more about these tools, or if you would like to contribute ideas to develop for this blog, please e-mail us at:

ironman at politicalcalculations.com

Thanks in advance!

Recent Posts

The Tax Burden of ObamaCare

High Five!

Barack Obama: Crony Capitalist in Chief? Part 2

Barack Obama: Crony Capitalist in Chief? Part 1

Maryland vs Virginia: Tax Returns

Whither QE3?

Old Technology, Finding New Life

Worst. Recession. Jobs. Recovery. Ever. Updated.

Should You Drop Your Personal Health Insurance Und...

The Dividend Doldrums

Elsewhere on the Web

This year, we'll be experimenting with a number of apps to bring more of a current events focus to Political Calculations - we're test driving the app(s) below!

Most Popular Posts

The S&P 500 at Your Fingertips

The Distribution of Income for 2010: Individuals

Should You Trade in Your Gas Guzzler?

What Are the Chances Your Marriage Will Last?

Tipping Around the World

What's Your Body Fat Percentage?

The Odds of Dying, Again!

Gas Prices, the Unemployment Rate, and Desperation

Hauser's Law

The Real Story Behind "Rising" U.S. Income Inequality

Quick Index

First Time Visitor to Political Calculations?

On the Moneyed Midways

A Lot, But Not All, of Our Tools

U.S. GDP Temperature Gauge

Political Calculations' GDP Temperature Gauge, 2013Q1 First Estimate Political Calculations' U.S. GDP Temperature Gauge provides a means to quickly evaluate the growth rate of the U.S. economy against the backdrop of how the economy has performed since 1980, with the "temperature" color spectrum ranging from a recessionary "cold" (purple) through an expansionary "hot" (red).

The GDP Temperature Gauge presents both the annualized GDP growth rate as reported by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis reports for a one-quarter period and also as averaged over a two quarter period, which smooths out the volatility seen in the one-quarter data and provides a better indication of the relative strength of the U.S. economy over time.

Site Data

This site is primarily powered by:

This page is powered by Blogger. Isn't yours?

Visitors since December 6, 2004:

CSS Validation

Valid CSS!

RSS Site Feed

AddThis Feed Button

JavaScript

The tools on this site are built using JavaScript. If you would like to learn more, one of the best free resources on the web is available at W3Schools.com.

Other Cool Resources

ZunZun - Exceptional regression analysis tool.
Wolfram Integrator - Solve integrals. Do calculus!
Create a Graph - Easy-to-use basic graph-making tool.
Many Eyes - Data visualization extraordinaire!
Wolfram Alpha - Computational knowledge engine.
Khan Academy - Math & science video mini-lectures!
Picasion - Animate images.


Archives
December 2004
January 2005
February 2005
March 2005
April 2005
May 2005
June 2005
July 2005
August 2005
September 2005
October 2005
November 2005
December 2005
January 2006
February 2006
March 2006
April 2006
May 2006
June 2006
July 2006
August 2006
September 2006
October 2006
November 2006
December 2006
January 2007
February 2007
March 2007
April 2007
May 2007
June 2007
July 2007
August 2007
September 2007
October 2007
November 2007
December 2007
January 2008
February 2008
March 2008
April 2008
May 2008
June 2008
July 2008
August 2008
September 2008
October 2008
November 2008
December 2008
January 2009
February 2009
March 2009
April 2009
May 2009
June 2009
July 2009
August 2009
September 2009
October 2009
November 2009
December 2009
January 2010
February 2010
March 2010
April 2010
May 2010
June 2010
July 2010
August 2010
September 2010
October 2010
November 2010
December 2010
January 2011
February 2011
March 2011
April 2011
May 2011
June 2011
July 2011
August 2011
September 2011
October 2011
November 2011
December 2011
January 2012
February 2012
March 2012
April 2012
May 2012
June 2012
July 2012
August 2012
September 2012
October 2012
November 2012
December 2012
January 2013
February 2013
March 2013
April 2013
May 2013

Blog Roll

Bloodhoundblog
Budgets Are Sexy
Cafe Hayek
Carpe Diem
Core77
Coyote Blog
Craig Harper
Darwin's Finance
Digerati Life, The
Division of Labour
Dough Roller, The
Eclectecon
Econlog
Economics Roundtable
EconomicsUK
Environmental Economics
Escape from Cubicle Nation
Execupundit
FiscalGeek
Get Rich Slowly
Gongol
Good Financial Cents
HR Bartender
Hot Air
i4cp Productivity
Innocent Bystanders
Innovation and Growth
Instapundit
Intangible Economy
I've Paid Twice for This Already
Joanne Jacobs
Kaus Files
Len Penzo dot Com
Making Ripples
Market Power
Mechonomics
Mighty Bargain Hunter
Monevator
My Dollar Plan
New Economist
Newmark's Door
Nina Simosko
Physorg
Private Sector Development
Real Clear Politics
Richard Fernandez
Roger L. Simon
Rowan Manahan
Sound Politics
SOX First
Sports Economist, The
squawkfox
Three Star Leadership
Tim Worstall
Townhall
Trusted Advisor
Uncommon Misperceptions
voluntaryXchange
WILLisms
Winterspeak

Market Links

Big Picture, The
Crackerjack Finance
CXO Advisory Group
Disciplined Approach to Investing
Dividend Guy, The
Doug Short
Evidence Investing
Fat Pitch Financials
FX Investment Strategies
Oilprice

Charities We Support

American Red Cross
Children's Heart Foundation
Salvation Army
SMA Foundation

Recommended Reading

Kindle Paperwhite 3G - Best e-reader!
Angel in the Whirlwind
Bailout Nation
Cartoon Guide to Statistics
A Comprehensive Guide to the Peloponnesian War
The Complete Personal Memoirs of Ulysses S. Grant
The Count of Monte Cristo
Ender's Game
Gardner's Art Through the Ages
Empire of Wealth
How to Make Presentations to Councils and Boards
Juran's Quality Handbook
Marks' Standard Handbook
The Second World War
Stocks for the Long Run
Why Smart Executives Fail

Recommended Viewing

The Tudors: The Complete Series

Recently Shopped

Kindle Fire HD 8.9" 4G LTE Wireless 32 GB
Snap Circuits Jr. SC-100
Nerf Vortex Praxis
Sony BRAVIA 40" LED HDTV
2540 Series Docking Station
New Balance MX623
Dunham Men's Waterproof Oxford
TN360 Black Toner Cartridge
The Dangerous Book for Boys
Air Swimmer Remote Control Inflatable Flying Shark
Fisher-Price Little People Lil Pirate Ship

Seeking Alpha Certified