Unexpectedly Intriguing!
July 9, 2013

Now that we're well past the statistical anomalies associated with the timing of the Chinese New Year/Spring Festival holiday, the year-over-year growth rates of the value of trade between the U.S. and China indicates that China's economy has likely fallen back into recession, while the U.S. economy is growing, if sluggishly, through May 2013:

Year Over Year Growth Rate of U.S.-China Trade, January 1986 - May 2013

The data in the chart above has been adjusted to reflect what each nation's economy "sees" in terms of its own currency. For the most recent trends in the overall data, the value of the U.S. dollar has been falling steadily with respect to the value of the Chinese Yuan since May 2010, as the relative value of U.S. goods in China has fallen while the relative value of Chinese goods in the U.S. have become more expensive.

References

U.S. Census Bureau. Trade in Goods with China. Accessed 03 July 2013.

Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. China / U.S. Foreign Exchange Rate. G.5 Foreign Exchange Rates. Accessed 03 July 2013.


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