Unexpectedly Intriguing!
February 1, 2011

Assuming typical levels of noise in the markets, and in the 1 in 5 chance that a short-term correction that may be waiting in the wings will stay there, we can expect the average of the daily closing values for the S&P 500 to fall into a range between 1289 and 1321 during February 2011.

Our first chart shows why we think so:

Accelerations of S&P 500 Average Monthly Index Value and Trailing Year Dividends per Share (and Futures) as of 1 February 2011

Our second chart shows our track record for predicting where the S&P 500 will go a month ahead of time:

S&P 500 Average Monthly Index Value with Forecasting Track Record, January 2009 to Present

We'll leave it as an exercise to our investing-oriented readers to work out what our up-or-down call accuracy might be.

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