Unexpectedly Intriguing!
16 May 2022

After starting the week with a bang, the S&P 500 (Index: SPX) saw its level of volatility die down as investors solidified their forward-looking attention on 2022-Q2.

How long it might stay there is a question that remains to be answered, but the latest update of the alternative futures chart shows the level of stock prices is fully consistent with that assessment.

Alternative Futures - S&P 500 - 2022Q2 - Standard Model (m=-2.5 from 16 June 2021) - Snapshot on 13 May 2022

Better still, we've moved out of the period where the echoes of the past volatility of stock prices affected the accuracy of the dividend futures-based model's projections, which had required us to add redzone forecast ranges to the chart to compensate in helping track the S&P 500's latest Lévy flight events.

Since we've already outlined what may come next for the S&P 500 in an update to the previous entry of our ongoing S&P 500 chaos series, let's recap the market-moving news headlines from the week that was:

Monday, 9 May 2022
Tuesday, 10 May 2022
Wednesday, 11 May 2022
Thursday, 12 May 2022
Friday, 13 May 2022

According to the CME Group's FedWatch Tool, the Fed will hike rates by a half-point in June (2022-Q2), followed by a two more half-point hikes in July and September (2022-Q3). The Atlanta Fed's GDPNow tool projects real GDP growth of 1.8% in 2022-Q2, down from last week's projection of 2.3%.

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