Political Calculations
December 03, 2008

Carnival Midway from The Jerk Welcome to the investment grade version of the 66th edition of the Cavalcade of Risk and also to Political Calculations!

For those of you who are regular blog carnival goers, but perhaps haven't encountered us previously, we're the permanent home of On the Moneyed Midways. Each week, usually on either Friday or Saturday, we present the best posts we find in the best of each week's money and business-related blog carnivals, selecting one as being The Best Post of the Week, Anywhere! The best way to think of OMM is as being your one-stop access point for all worthwhile business and money-related blog carnival reading!

In short, we have lots of experience in reviewing and rating hundreds of blog posts on a weekly basis. In fact, just for the Cavalcade of Risk, we've created a carnival blog post rating guide to distinguish the good contributions from the okay ones and especially from the just plain awful ones. The table below presents the system we came up with, which is pretty similar to those bond rating systems used to communicate financial risk to investors:

Blog Post Rating System for Blog Carnivals
Topicality
[Capital Letter]
Information Quality
[Small Letter]
Readability
[Number]
A - Fully On Topic
B - Related Topic
C - Way Off Topic
D - Spam
a - Makes You Smarter
b - Makes You Informed
c - Makes You Stupider
1 - Highly Readable
2 - Average Quality
3 - Potentially Painful

So, in using this system, a post with the ranking Aa1 is one that is fully on topic, will make you smarter and is highly readable. By contrast, reading a post with the ranking Dc3 would be like splashing acid in your eyes and then rubbing them with sandpaper, but less pleasant. As a quick aside, we do know that "c" should say "Makes you more stupid," but we figure that if you read enough of those kind of posts that your language processing skills will be shot anyway.

What makes this the investment grade version is that we've only presented those posts contributed to the Cavalcade of Risk that are either fully on topic or that are related in their topic, but make you smarter while still being fairly readable, so that makes the Ba2 designation the cutoff for inclusion in this version of the carnival. If you'd like to see all the contributions for this week's carnival and how they ranked, you'll find them presented here.

But wait, that's not all! We've engaged our dynamic table technology so you can sort the entries in the table below just by clicking the appropriate column heading. Go ahead, try it out, and enjoy this 66th edition of the Cavalcade of Risk!

Cavalcade of Risk #66: Investment Grade Version
Date Contributed Post Blog Rating Remark
2008-11-20 This Risk Register Has Sharp Edges. DO NOT TOUCH THE EDGES OF THIS RISK REGISTER Scope Crêpe Ab2 Rich Maltzmann highlights the value of the Risk Register as a practical tool for reducing the variability in the way risks are communicated.
2008-11-23 Read Financial Footnotes, Invest Wisely Qovax Ba2 Qovax explains how to read the footnotes in financial documents to identify potential red flags.
2008-11-28 Mind-Numbingly Stupid Industry Tricks InsureBlog Aa2 Hank Stern uses recent statements made by a health insurance lobbying group to launch into a no-holds barred rant on the presumptuousness of "Big Health Insurance."
2008-11-29 Financial Risk and Medical Care: U.S. vs Canada Healthcare Economist Ab2 Jason Shafrin contrasts the differences of how poor economic times affect individuals in the U.S. and Canada given how each nation divides up the financial risk of paying for health care.
2008-11-29 Survive a Recession, Think Long Term Digerati Life Ba1 The Silicon Valley Blogger has an eleven point list for making it through an economic recession in good shape. Survival tip number one? "Spread your risk, be diversified!"
2008-11-30 Why Life Insurance Is More Popular Than Disability Insurance moneyblog Aa2 Insurance claims ratios suggest that insurance customers have it backwards when it comes to how much life and disability insurance coverage they buy. Brian Lenehan uses the work of Milton Friedman and George Szpiro to explain why.
2008-11-30 Florida - The End of the Happy Times Managed Care Matters Aa2 Joe Paduda takes on Florida's three member panel that oversees the state's workers compensation system, who would appear to have substituted their own judgment for sound risk management principles.
2008-11-30 Stay a Healthy Weight to Slash Alzheimer's Risk DietBlog Aa2 Ali Hale has news on how gender and being either overweight or underweight during middle age may increase one's risk of developing Alzheimer's disease.
2008-11-30 I Won't Follow This Advice #4 - Uninsured by Choice My Wealth Builder Ab2 The Super Saver reflects on an MSN Money article in which he observes that some people are marginalizing the risks associated with not having health insurance in choosing to go without it.
2008-11-30 Weight, Older Women and Breast Cancer Risk Straight from the Doc Ab2 Gloria Gamat discusses a new study linking breast cancer risk and weight.
2008-11-30 The 3 Laws of Risk, and Their Implications for an Inter-connected Financial System Rogue Economist Rants Ab2 The Rogue Economist discusses the impact the "three laws of risk," which are loosely patterned after a hodgepodge of Newton's laws of motion and the laws of thermodynamics, have upon global banking, especially credit.
2008-11-30 Love Handles Increase Death Risk: Study Everything Livia Ab2 Everything Livia reports that those cute "love handles" may actually be indicators of increased risk for an early demise.
2008-11-30 Prostate Cancer Risk Factors Cancer Knowledge Ab2 Although we don't know what exactly causes prostate cancer, Cancer Knowledge 6 identifies a number of factors that may increase one's risk of developing it.
2008-11-30 Guest Post: Protect Yourself from Financial Loss LivingAlmostLarge Ac3 In this case, "guest post" means nobody wanted to put their name on the disjointed ruminations that kind of center on discussing liability coverage for auto insurance. Total waste of time. Hurts to read. Will make you stupider. Don't say you weren't warned.
2008-12-01 Eight Reasons Why the Health Insurers Are Agreeing to Community Rating & What It Means to Disease Management Disease Management Care Aa1 Jaan Siderov explains why "Big Health Insurance" wants mandated health insurance coverage and spells out the resulting impact. A very strong candidate for The Best Post of the Week, Anywhere! for this week's edition of On the Moneyed Midways. Tune in this weekend to find out for sure!
2008-12-01 Mandatory and Guaranteed Health Insurance Colorado Health Insurance Insider Aa2 Louise picks up the arguments favoring the health insurance industry associations' recent advocacy for mandating health insurance coverage.
2008-12-02 Should You Stop to Put Gas in the Car? Political Calculations Ab2 The latest tool at Political Calculations helps find your threshold for risk in driving on a nearly empty fuel tank!

More About Political Calculations

In addition to being the home of On the Moneyed Midways, we're also the blogosphere's tool chest. We frequently present tools that you can use to answer a variety of questions. We can tell you things like the odds of the U.S. going into recession a year from now, or find the rate of return for an investment in the S&P 500 between any two months of its history, or even how long your marriage might last.

Beyond that, we occasionally explain things like the real connection between dividends and stock prices, what's driving teenagers out of the job market and also why a seemingly simple solution that might eliminate the disparity in racial health outcomes in the U.S. isn't quite as simple as it sounds.

Basically, we ask questions we don't already know the answers to, then answer them. The bottom line: We solve problems.

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Recession Probability Track - 21 June 2005 to 19 June 2009

Political Calculations' Recession Probability Track shows the probability that the U.S. economy will be in recession 12 months from the indicated date (shown in red) while revealing the probability trend over the past four years.

Previously, the probability of recession peaked at 50% on 4 April 2007, which means that March-April 2008 was the most likely period in which the NBER would have found the U.S. to be in recession.

As it happens, they almost did. The NBER instead chose December 2007 as the beginning month of the most recent recession (we had found a 46% probability for a recession beginning in that month!)

On the Moneyed Midways

Political Calculations is also the online home of On the Moneyed Midways (aka OMM), a review of the best posts contributed to the week's best business and money-related blog carnivals. More than that, we also name one post in each edition as being The Best Post of the Week, Anywhere! and at the end of each year, we name The Best Post of the Year, Anywhere! as well as identifying the best blogs we found during the course of the year!

The link below will take you to the running index containing our most recent back issues (you can easily navigate the index to find older editions.)

OMM's Running Index for 2008

Recent Posts

Cavalcade of Risk #66: Kit and Caboodle

Pre-Cavalcade Traffic Levels

Should You Stop To Put Gas In the Car?

The Stock Market in Lévy Flight

On the Moneyed Midways - November 28, 2008

Money Making Ideas for Thanksgiving Leftovers

Big Turkey's Big Business

Who Is "Big Turkey"?

Turkeymania 2008!

On the Moneyed Midways - November 21, 2008

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