On 26 August 2025, SpaceX launched the world's largest rocket, successfully performing all parts of its planned mission, including "soft" splashdown landings of both its heavy booster in the Gulf of America/Mexico and the Starship spacecraft in the Indian Ocean after a one-hour, six-minute flight.

The following video covers the entire launch and presents about 50 minutes of background information before showing the launch. We recommend skipping ahead to a little past the 45-minute mark to get to the portion of the coverage that focuses on the launch and flight.

Watch Starship's tenth flight test → https://t.co/UIwbeGoo2B https://t.co/BFrpQPQFUw

— SpaceX (@SpaceX) August 26, 2025

The soft splashdown of the Starship vehicle is remarkable because it traveled over halfway around the world in little more than an hour, landing exactly where intended. The following video of its landing was captured by a camera SpaceX placed on a buoy at the target zone in the Indian Ocean:

If you're trying to get any spot on Earth, you usually won't ever need to fly more than halfway around the planet to get there. SpaceX just proved its Starship spacecraft can make that kind of trip in about an hour. That's a revolutionary capability in transportation.

But that's not all. The Starship spacecraft has the capability of carrying significant quantities of cargo, which will greatly reduce the cost of accessing space. Visual Capitalist's "Cost of Space Flight Before and After SpaceX" chart shows how Starship is expected to affect the cost to launch a satellite into Earth orbit:

Those reduced costs mean more than less expensive satellites, they also open the door to much wider space exploration, including interplanetary travel within the solar system.

SpaceX' tenth attempted mission of its prototype Starship vehicle is greatly expanding what's possible for transportation. After SpaceX' nine previous attempts, it's exciting to watch all the engineering it will take to make so much more possible finally starting to click together.

Political Calculations' initial estimate of the total valuation of U.S. new home sales in July 2025 is $29.68 billion.

This estimate is up about one percent from Political Calculations' initial estimate of $29.37 billion for June 2025. That month's estimate however has been revised upward to $29.41 billion this month. The initial estimate for July 2025 is 0.9% above this revised level.

These figures are time-shifted, partial trailing twelve month averages. The initial estimate for any given month is based on the U.S. Census Bureau's estimated annualized number of new home sales multiplied by their average price for that month, which is averaged with the data for the preceding six months. These total valuation (or new home market capitalization) estimates are then updated as each new month's data is added to it, until it covers a full twelve months worth of data, and as older data is revised, which continues until that data is finalized some 10 months after the month for which the data applies.

The benefit of this approach is that it 'centers' the trailing average in something closer to real time, which makes it easier to tell when changes in trend take place. The following charts present the U.S. new home market capitalization, the number of new home sales, and their sale prices as measured by their time-shifted, trailing twelve month averages from January 1976 through July 2025. The data through July 2025 indicates the new home market cap is rising mainly due to average sale prices being elevated in recent months even as the number of sales has trended downward during this period.

New home sales in downward trend:

Flat trend for prices at elevated level:

Reuters reports the number of new homes sold in July 2025 fell after the previous month's sales numbers were revised sharply upward:

Sales of new U.S. single-family homes fell in July following a sharp upward revision to the prior month's sales pace, and the overall trend remained consistent with a housing market struggling in an environment of high mortgage rates.

The report from the Commerce Department on Monday bolstered economists' expectations that the housing market slump could persist through the end of the year. Though mortgage rates have eased on expectations that the Federal Reserve would resume cutting interest rates in September, they continue to outpace wage growth, pushing home ownership beyond the reach of many.

That's not quite correct, as new home prices in recent months have been moving toward becoming affordable for the first time in more than three years. At this time, they remain out of reach for the typical American household, which we'll explore in more detail in a separate analysis in upcoming weeks.

References

U.S. Census Bureau. New Residential Sales Historical Data. Houses Sold. [Excel Spreadsheet]. Accessed 26 August 2025. 

U.S. Census Bureau. New Residential Sales Historical Data. Median and Average Sale Price of Houses Sold. [Excel Spreadsheet]. Accessed 26 August 2025. 

Image credit: Microsoft Copilot Designer. Prompt: "A newly constructed two-story suburban house with beige siding and a dark gray gabled roof. The house features white trim, a large arched window on the second floor, a white double garage door, and a black front door with a small porch. The front yard has a neatly manicured green lawn with small shrubs near the foundation. A concrete driveway extends from the garage all the way to the street. In the foreground, a red and white "NEW HOME FOR SALE" sign is staked into the grass of the front yard, supported by a white wooden post. The sky is bright blue with scattered white clouds, and a line of trees is visible in the background." Note: This image went through multiple iterations. So many, in fact, we asked Copilot to write a prompt for generating the final result.

Whenever you hear about historic carbon emissions by nations in the media, there's usually a huge omission in the information being transmitted. You'll often hear about the total CO₂ emissions that nations have emitted throughout history, but not necessarily how much of those emissions are still in the air.

That matters because carbon dioxide in the atmosphere is part of a global carbon cycle. One that begins reducing the emissions generated in any particular year from the very outset from when they were emitted. The following diagram illustrates major parts of the modern Earth's carbon cycle.

Not shown in the image are other natural sources of carbon dioxide emissions, like volcanoes, and natural sinks that absorb carbon dioxide out of the atmosphere, like oceans.

We've updated our estimate of how much CO₂ emissions produced within the modern world's largest national producers of carbon dioxide emissions since 1850 are still in the air. The following chart updates that data through the end of 2023.

This chart illustrates both total historic emissions and the amount estimated to still be in the atmosphere today, which is the more meaningful value with respect to the modern political debates over climate change.

The chart shows the largest share for any single nation is that for the United States, to which a little over one-fifth of the CO₂ is attributed, where our estimate using this data through 2023 is 21.8%, about a half percent lower than our estimate from two years ago.

China still ranks second by that measure at over 18.1% of the global total, and the combined nations of the European Union come in third at 14.5%. We also find India's 4.1% share outranks the United Kingdom's 3.3%, which is remarkable because the U.K. was once the world's largest producer of carbon dioxide emissions. The "Rest of the World" combines for nearly two-fifth's of the excess fossil-fuel based carbon dioxide emissions present in the atmosphere as of 2023, which exceeds the United States' total historic CO₂ emissions.

These relative shares have changed over time, with China and India's relative contributions to global CO₂ emissions increasing as the relative share of emissions of the United Kingdom, United States, and European Union have declined.

Looking forward, assuming no change in national carbon dioxide emissions from their 2023 levels, we estimate China will become the largest national historical contributor of human-generated carbon dioxide emissions still in the Earth's air in 2030.

References

Friedlingstein et al. National Fossil CO2 Emissions by Country (Territorial). 2024 v1.0. [Excel Spreadsheet]. 13 November 2024.

Political Calculations. How Long Does Carbon Dioxide Stay in the Atmosphere? [Online Article, Tool]. 19 July 2023.

Image credit: An Interactive Introduction to Organismal and Molecular Biology, 2nd ed. Copyright © 2021 by Andrea M.-K. Bierema is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-ShareAlike 4.0 International License.

About two-thirds of 2025 has come and gone. If your projected income for the year will push you into a higher tax bracket before it ends, you still have time to act to avoid that outcome.

As tax-related problems go, this is a good one to have. In this situation, your goal is to maximize the amount of money that you will keep under your control. If your income is on track to exceed a threshold that will put you into a higher tax bracket, Uncle Sam will take a bigger bite out of what you earn and that's what you want to avoid.

The first step to see if you'll even have this as a potential problem is to estimate what your total income for the year will be. After you've done that, you'll want to estimate your taxable income, which is really easy. If you will be filing a single return, just subtract 2025's standard deduction of $15,000 from your total projected income. If you will file a joint return, subtract the standard deduction of $30,000 from your combined income.

Have your number? See how your taxable income fits within the following ordinary income tax brackets for single and joint filers:

The thing you're looking for is whether your taxable income is above the entry level taxable income for a given tax bracket. If it is, all income you earn will above that number will be taxed at a higher rate. Unless you act to reduce your taxable income to put it into the next lower tax bracket.

Charles Schwab's Hayden Adams has some suggestions to do that, using a hypothetical taxpaying scenario:

Let's say Ben, a single filer, is on track to make $242,000 in 2025. After factoring in the $15,000 standard deduction and a $19,360 contribution to a pre-tax 401(k), Ben's taxable ordinary income is $207,640 for the year ($242,000 minus $19,360 minus $15,000). At that level of income, $10,340 of taxable income would fall into the 32% ordinary income tax bracket (which kicks in after $197,300 of income). Here are some ways Ben could reduce his income:

• Boost 401(k) contribution. The limit for 2025 is $23,500 for those under 50, so Ben contribute an additional $4,140 his 401(k). Plus…
• Maximize contributions to an HSA. The limit for 2025 is $4,300, so making the max contribution would reduce Ben's income even further (assuming he is eligible). Plus…
• Tax loss harvesting. Up to $3,000 of net capital losses can be used to offset ordinary income, so if Ben harvesting at least $1,900 in losses he would wipe out the income that falls into the 32% tax bracket.

"401(k)" refers to the popular retirement investment account many Americans have available through their employers, in which they set aside a "pre-tax" percentage of their income. "HSA" is a reference to a tax-exempt Health Savings Account that you would most likely also have through your employer.

Tax loss harvesting however is a whole different thing. It requires you to have investments outside of your 401(k) or HSA accounts. And if the name of the concept doesn't give it away, it requires you to lose money on at least part of your investments in that account to claim as losses on your income tax return to offset your taxable income.

Finally, Adams' hypothetical taxpayer is pretty well to do, but engaging in this kind of lawful taxable income management can pay off for people with much lower incomes. If Ben's projected taxable income for 2025 were just above the $48,476 threshold for the 22% threshold, then Ben would have a very powerful incentive to reduce his taxable income. The jump in tax rate from the 12% bracket to the 22% bracket is the largest in the tax tables, so if Ben's taxable income is within striking distance of $48,476 for the options available to him, anything he can do to reduce his taxable income below that level would be very beneficial in avoiding Uncle Sam taking too big a bite out of the income he earns.

Image Credit: Microsoft Copilot Designer. Prompt: "An editorial cartoon of a taxpayer trying to prevent Uncle Sam from taking too much of their income". Which we followed up with "Make it more colorful".

The week's biggest market moving news came on Friday, 22 August 2025, when Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell opened the door to the Fed resuming interest rate cuts. Investors were buoyed by the news, which boosted the S&P 500 (Index: SPX) to 6,466.91 by the close of trading that day, ending the week almost 0.3% higher than it closed out the preceding week.

But to put the news into closer focus, the S&P 500 jumped 1.5% on Friday, having fallen throughout the week, primarily between Tuesday, 19 August and Thursday, 21 August.

The latest update suggests investors reset their forward-looking focus during the week to the more distant future quarter of 2026-Q2 in setting current day stock prices. We find the trajectory of the index is at the lower end of the typical range the dividend futures-based model behind the chart would place it.

The heightened focus on Powell's speech at the Fed's annual retreat to Jackson Hole, Wyoming accounts for the market's sharp reaction on Friday, 22 August 2025. The CME Group's FedWatch Tool indicates investors now anticipate the Fed will cut the Federal Funds Rate by a quarter percent at its 17 September (2025-Q3) meeting. Going forward, the FedWatch tool forecasts additional quarter point rate cuts will take place on 29 October (2025-Q4), 10 December (2025-Q4), and 28 January (2026-Q1).

Should investors shift their time horizon inward to the nearer term, the rally in stock prices could continue. How high stock prices might rise in that event would be determined by how far into the future they might shift their focus. If that doesn't happen and investors stay focused on 2026-Q2, then stock prices will mostly move sideways within a relatively narrow range.

For a significant continued rally, something will need to happen to reset investors' time horizon. That, in turn, will depend on the random onset of new information which the market moving news of the week will document. Speaking of which, here are the past week's headlines:

Monday, 18 August 2025

• Signs and portents for the U.S. economy:
• Oil prices edge higher ahead of Trump-Zelenskiy meeting
• Chief Fed minion has some problems before leaving for Fed summer camp:
• Powell caught between inflation and unemployment as Jackson Hole approaches
• Bigger stimulus, trouble developing in China:
• China to continue stimulating consumption, premier says
• China July aluminium imports surge 38% from prior year
• China’s half-cooked growth plan is going cold
• BOJ minions see positives in US-Japan trade deal:
• Japan says US is not pressuring BOJ for rate hikes, markets not so sure
• Wall Street finished flat ahead of Powell's Jackson Hole speech and retail earnings
• Wall Street ends on muted note ahead of Jackson Hole summit, retailers' earnings
• Trump administration in talks to take 10% stake in Intel, Bloomberg News reports
• Trump eyes US government stakes in other chip makers that received CHIPS Act funds, sources say

Tuesday, 19 August 2025

• Signs and portents for the U.S. economy:
• Oil prices fall on talks to end Russian invasion of Ukraine
• US housing starts tick higher in July, led by apartment construction
• US hikes steel, aluminum tariffs on imported appliances, railcars, EV parts
• Trump's interest rate demands put 'fiscal dominance' in market spotlight
• Fed minions thinking about getting into crypto:
• Fed's Bowman suggests allowing central bank staff to own small amounts of crypto products
• Bigger trouble developing in China:
• China expected to keep benchmark lending rates unchanged
• China's overcapacity crackdown faces litmus test in solar sector
• BOJ minions get message from politician who wants higher interest rates in Japan:
• Japan must raise rates, get fiscal house in order, says veteran lawmaker Kono
• Nasdaq tumbles as Jackson Hole jitters hit tech stocks
• Wall Street ended lower as retail earnings and the Jackson Hole symposium loom

Wednesday, 20 August 2025

• Signs and portents for the U.S. economy:
• Oil prices climb 2% on drop in US crude inventories as investors focus on Ukraine peace push
• Fed minutes show divide within Fed over direction for setting interest rates, President Trump targets two minions he wants to replace sooner rather than later:
• Fed dissenters appeared alone in favoring rate cut at July meeting, minutes show
• Fed minutes highlight split over effects of Trump’s tariffs on inflation
• Trump again attacks Fed chair, says Powell 'hurting' the housing industry
• Trump calls on Fed Governor Cook to resign over mortgage allegations
• China policymakers thinking about getting into crypto:
• Exclusive: China considering yuan-backed stablecoins to boost global currency usage, sources say
• BOJ minion to join Fed minions at their policy summer camp getaway:
• BOJ governor Ueda to travel to Jackson Hole for Fed conference
• ECB minions say US-Eurozone trade deal close to their plan:
• US-EU trade deal not far from ECB's baseline forecast, Lagarde says
• Nasdaq, S&P 500 end lower as investors sell tech, buy less pricey sectors
• Wall Street concluded mostly lower as investors digested retail earnings and Fed minutes
• Nasdaq drops for 2nd day as AI jitters rattle tech investors

Thursday, 21 August 2025

• Signs and portents for the U.S. economy:
• Oil rises 1% on stalled Russia-Ukraine peace talks, strong US demand
• US existing home sales tick up unexpectedly in July
• Fed minions claim no need to rush to cut rates, Fed minions rethinking what they're doing, legal problems developing for Fed minion:
• Fed officials lukewarm on September rate cut as markets await Powell speech
• Fed's Schmid says no urgency to cut interest rates but more data to come
• Fed's expansive experiment in strategy to get a reboot at Jackson Hole
• US DOJ to probe Fed's Cook, urging removal, Bloomberg News reports
• Fed governor Lisa Cook says she will not be ‘bullied’ into resigning
• Justice department calls on Fed to sack governor Lisa Cook
• Bigger trouble developing in China:
• China faces pivotal welfare reform test as court ruling hits jobs, small firms
• Chief BOJ minion not wanting to rush interest rate hikes in Japan:
• BOJ chief's dogged caution tempers board's hawkish instincts
• Signs of recovery in the Eurozone, ECB minions get reason to hold off on more rate cuts:
• Euro zone business activity accelerates in August as new orders grow, PMI shows
• German manufacturing drives modest growth in August, PMI shows
• Surprise uptick in Eurozone activity bolsters case for ECB to hold rates
• Wall Street finished in the red as Walmart weighed on markets and eyes turn to Jackson Hole
• Walmart results show consumer resilience; shares down after recent rally
• Wall Street closes down as investors brace for Powell's speech

Friday, 22 August 2025

• Signs and portents for the U.S. economy:
• Oil prices set to end losing streak as Ukraine peace process stalls
• Canada to remove many retaliatory tariffs on US, Carney says
• Chief Fed minion opens door for Fed to resume interest rate cuts:
• Powell says rates may need to be cut, but Fed to proceed carefully
• Fed rate cut odds rise after Powell's Jackson Hole speech
• Yields drop in response to Powell speech at Jackson Hole
• Powell, citing jobs risk, opens door to cuts but doesn't commit
• Fed's Powell announces policy framework tweaks for changed economic landscape
• Trump 'Will Fire Cook' If She Doesn't Resign After Pulte Drops New Receipts
• Bigger trouble developing in China:
• China's imports of US rare earth ore surge in July
• China tightens grip over rare earth supply quotas
• Bigger trouble developing in the Eurozone:
• Germany falls back into ‘recessionary territory’ as second-quarter GDP revised down
• Dow notched a record close as Wall Street rallied on Powell’s Jackson Hole remarks
• Nasdaq, S&P, Dow rise on Powell's speech at Jackson Hole

There is one potential concern that can upset the future we've described. Should the S&P 500 run into a new market regime, all bets would be off. Changes in market regime is something the dividend futures-based model can identify, but cannot anticipate in advance, even though it can explain upwards of 90% of how stock prices behave otherwise. In terms of modeling how stock prices work, it's the remaining frontier.

The Atlanta Fed's GDPNow tool projection of real GDP growth in the U.S. during the current quarter of 2025-Q3 dipped to +2.3% after clocking in at +2.5% in the preceding week.

Image credit: Microsoft Copilot Designer. Prompt: "An editorial cartoon of a Federal Reserve official speaking to a group at a summer camp. There is a magical door with a sign that says 'INTEREST RATE CUTS' onstage that the official has opened."

Quick, think of a classic clock!

You most likely have pictured a circular disk with a long and short needle-like "hands" mounted at the center that rotate at different speeds around a face with numbers marked on it. The slower rotating short hand points to the number that corresponds to the hour of the day, while the faster rotating long or big hand indicates the number of minutes that have elapsed during the hour.

The form factor of this kind of mechanical clock has been established over centuries. So much so that we use the word clockwise to describe the direction of rotation of any motion that is similar to how a clock's hands move.

The basic design of a clock has really only been challenged in more recent decades with the advent of digital technology, which replaces the sweeping hands with numbers that change to indicate the time as the minutes and hours tick by. The latest innovation down this line are the so-called smart watches that are little more than miniaturized computers and screens, whose pixels are used to simulate either the sweeping of mechanical clock hands or the ever-changing numbers of a digital clock display when used to indicate the time.

But should our concept of how clocks work be limited to these established designs? We came across two Kickstarter projects featuring unique clockwork mechanisms for watches that rethink how people might go about reading a clock to tell the time. While both projects are still actively funding, with about two weeks left to go, they have both achieved their funding goals, which means the watches will be produced.

The first concept we found interesting is the STRUC Time Shuttle Mechanical Watch. Designed by Hong Kong's StrucWatches, the watch aims to redefine how to read a clock. The following video presents the design which fits the equivalent of three clocks onto a single watchface, one telling the current time, the other two indicating the time one hour before and one hour into the future:

Putting so much information onto a single clock face makes for a intricate time-reading experience, so when we came across a second clockface redefining watch on Kickstarter, Svalbard's HX15/HX16 developed by Sergey Kozhukhov, we couldn't help but be impressed with its greatly simplified presentation that resembles a speedometer gauge. Here's the video introducing the project:

What makes Kozhukhov's watch fascinating is its combination of digital-like number to indicate the hour with the mechanical clock's minute hand that ticks clockwise from 0 to 60 to indicate the elapsed minutes of the hour before sweeping backward to zero at the beginning of a new hour.

The cool thing about both watches is that they're not just time telling devices, but conversation pieces. Both Kickstarter projects will be funding up until sometime on 6 September 2025.

Imagine, for a moment, that you're an investor who has been doing their homework in choosing the next stock in which you'll invest. You've narrowed your options down to two stocks, where you will one invest in one. One of the two stocks is a growth stock, which is to say that your returns will be totally determined by how its price changes over time. The other stock you're thinking about buying is a value stock, whose stock price could also grow, but which also will pay you dividends.

Which stock will you choose?

To answer that question, you will need to make some judgments about how each stock is valued. That can be as easy as calculating its Price-to-Earnings Ratio (P/E), but a word of warning. What you care about is the future, because that's where your returns will be. How can you factor in how much the companies behind each stock will grow in the future? And in the case of the value stock that also will pay you a dividend, how can you factor those future returns into your valuation assessment?

Quantamental Trader reviewed how legendary trader Peter Lynch did that when selecting the stocks in which he invested:

The Foundation: From P/E to PEG

Traditionally, the Price-to-Earnings (P/E) ratio has been a fundamental metric for valuing stocks. It relates the current stock price to its earnings per share (EPS). However, the P/E ratio alone often lacks context because it ignores the company’s expected growth. For example, a high P/E might be justified for a rapidly growing firm, while a low P/E might indicate undervaluation or fundamental problems.

The PEG ratio addresses this by dividing the P/E ratio by the company’s projected EPS growth rate (G):

PEG = Price-to-Earnings Ratio / EPS Growth Rate

A PEG ratio around 1 is generally considered fair value, less than 1 implies undervaluation, and above 1 overvaluation—though these are rules of thumb.

Peter Lynch recognized this metric’s usefulness but also noted its limitations.

The Innovation: Why PEGY?

The PEG ratio, while helpful, ignores dividends. Mature companies often grow earnings slowly but pay dividends consistently, returning value to shareholders. The PEG ratio tends to unfairly penalize these slower-growers because their growth rate is lower, making PEG higher even though their total return could be attractive when dividends are included.

To correct this, Lynch introduced the PEGY ratio, which incorporates dividend yield (DY) alongside expected earnings growth:

PEG = Price-to-Earnings Ratio / (EPS Growth Rate + Dividend Yield)

By summing the earnings growth rate and dividend yield, PEGY reflects the total expected return—growth plus income—and better accounts for companies at different stages: fast-growing firms with little dividend, and mature firms with steady dividends.

We've built the following tool to do the PEGY ratio math, but first, here's some data from two stocks we researched on Seeking Alpha. Both stocks are beneficiaries of the AI boom of recent years. One is a growth stock in the technology sector that pays a very small dividend, the other is a value stock in the energy sector that pays a substantial dividend. Here are their respective valuation metrics, which we sampled after the close of trading on Friday, 15 August 2025:

If you use a site like Seeking Alpha to look up this data, after searching for a specific company, you'll find the P/E Ratio (TTM) under the stock's "Valuation" section, the EPS Diluted Growth (YoY) under the "Growth" section, and the Dividend Yield (TTM) under the "Dividends" + "Dividend Yield (TTM)" section. This data is backwards-looking, which has the advantage of being relatively fixed and which can be used with the assumption that the near future will be similar to the recent past. Alternatively, you could substitute the FWD version of this data, provided you recognize expectations for the future are subject to change with little notice....

Here's the tool. If you're accessing this article on a site that republishes our RSS news feed, please click through to our site to access a working version of the tool.

The default data in the tool is for the growth stock, which finds it has a PEG of 2.45 and a PEGY of 2.35. Substituting the data for the value stock in the tool, we find it has a PEG of 1.93 and a PEGY of 1.39. Quantamental Trader provides the following guidance for how to interpret these results in comparing the two stocks:

Interpreting PEGY

• PEGY < 1: The stock may be undervalued relative to its combined growth and income potential.
• PEGY ≈ 1: The stock is fairly valued.
• PEGY > 1: The stock might be overvalued.

According to this interpretation, both stocks would be considered to be overvalued. The value stock however is closer to being fairly valued according to the PEGY measure.

That's not to say the growth stock won't provide the kind of return you might be hoping for, but it is important to recognize there is a greater risk associated with investing in it. The PEGY valuation tool gives you the means to quantify what that relative risk looks like - just plug in the numbers that matter for the stock you're evaluating.

Image credit: Microsoft Copilot Designer. Prompt: "Picture of an investor doing math to choose between a growth stock and a value stock". Just ignore the math and whatever the investor is doing with their lip and finger to balance the gravity-defying pencil as depicted.

The outlook for the S&P 500's dividends in the current and remaining quarters of 2025 improved in the month since we presented our previous snapshot of their future.

The amount of dividends expected to be paid out the remaining quarters of 2025 have risen above the levels recorded on 14 July 2025, with both quarters seeing gains and 2025-Q3 seeing a very large one. Here are the projections recorded as of the close of trading on Monday, 13 August 2025.

• 2025-Q3: Increase of $0.55, rising to $19.81 per share
• 2025-Q4: Increase of $0.09, rising to $19.85 per share

The following animated chart shows how expectations for the S&P 500's quarterly dividends per share changed in the month from 14 July 2025 to 13 August 2025. If you're reading this article on a site that republishes our RSS news feed, you may need to click through to our site to see the animation.

As a special bonus, here's a first outlook for the S&P 500's dividends expected in the first quarter of 2026:

• 2026-Q1: $20.64 per share

If that expectation holds, it will represent a year-over-year increase of $0.31 per share over 2025-Q1's finalized $20.33 per share.

More About Dividend Futures Data

How changes in the outlook for dividends at specific points of time in the future contribute to changes in stock prices is described by this math.

For this series, we have been taking a snapshot of the CME Group's S&P 500 quarterly dividend futures data shortly after the second or third week of each month.

Dividend futures indicate the amount of dividends per share to be paid out over the period covered by each quarter's dividend futures contracts, which start on the day after the preceding quarter's dividend futures contracts expire and end on the third Friday of the month ending the indicated quarter. So for example, as determined by dividend futures contracts, the now "current" quarter of 2025-Q3 began on Saturday, 21 June 2025 and will end on Friday, 19 September 2025. From the perspective of dividend futures, 2025-Q4 will become the current quarter on Saturday, 22 September 2025.

Because dividend futures are tied to options contracts that run on this schedule, that makes these figures different from the quarterly dividends per share figures that are reported by Standard and Poor. S&P reports the amount of dividends per share paid out during regular calendar quarters after the end of each quarter. This term mismatch accounts for the differences in dividends reported by both sources, with the biggest differences between the two typically seen in the first and fourth quarters of each year.

Image Credit: Microsoft Copilot Designer. Prompt: "A crystal ball with the word 'SP 500' written inside it". And 'Dividends' written above it, which we added.

Every three months, we take a snapshot of the expectations for future earnings in the S&P 500 (Index: SPX) at approximately the midpoint of the current quarter, shortly after most U.S. firms have announced their previous quarter's earnings.

The latest snapshot was snapped 96 days after the Spring 2025 snapshot. The outlook for earnings has improved since last quarter's snapshot, with slightly higher earnings expected in the remaining quarters of 2025 than what was anticipated three months ago.

In fact, it's probably better to describe the outlook for dividends as having stabilized over the past three months. Which itself is remarkable because the quarter has seen a revival in the fortunes of AI technology firms and multiple trade deals. Both changes are significant since much of the decline in the outlook for earnings came after the AI-bubble deflated and President Trump's "Liberation Day" tariff announcements, which both negatively affected earnings expectations for S&P 500 companies.

The following chart, covering how earnings expectations have changed from the end of 2021 through 13 August 2025:

The current projection for the S&P 500's earnings per share through the end of 2025 is $242.27, which would represent 15.3% year-over-year earnings growth over December 2024's finalized level of $210.17.

Looking further forward through the index' expected earnings per share through the end of 2026, Standard & Poor projects the S&P 500's earnings per share will be $277.12, which would represent year-over-year earnings growth of 14.4% above the current projection for the index' December 2025 earnings per share.

Reference

Silverblatt, Howard. Standard & Poor. S&P 500 Earnings and Estimates. [Excel Spreadsheet]. 13 August 2025. Accessed 15 August 2025.

Image Credit: Microsoft Copilot Designer. Prompt: "A crystal ball with the word 'SP 500' written inside it". And 'Earnings' written above it, which we added.

From Tuesday through Thursday, the S&P 500 (Index: SPX) clocked three new record highs during the trading week ending Friday, 15 August 2025. The index however dipped slightly on the week's final day of trading to close out the week at 6,449.80, which was up 0.9% from the previous week's closing value. And as it happens, down about 0.3% from its latest record high of 6,468.54 on Thursday, 14 August 2025.

Headlines involving inflation did the most the move stock prices during the week that was. Tuesday, 12 August 2025 launched the series of new highs with the news U.S. consumer price inflation came in lower than expected. That positive momentum was capped off on Thursday, when the producer price index came in higher than expected.

The inflation headlines drove stock prices mainly because of their effect on the expectations for how much and when the Federal Reserve will be setting interest rates through the end of 2025. The CME Group's FedWatch Tool projects the Fed will cut the Federal Funds Rate by a quarter percent at its 17 September (2025-Q3) meeting. Beyond that date, the FedWatch tool forecasts additional quarter point rate cuts will take place on 29 October (2025-Q4) and 28 January (2026-Q1).

The latest update of the alternative futures chart shows the S&P 500's trajectory is continuing to track along the lower end of the redzone forecast range.

The redzone forecast range is based on the assumption investors would hold their forward-looking attention on the distant future quarter of 2026-Q1 throughout the period it runs. The S&P 500's trajectory however is more consistent with investors focusing their attention on the nearer term quarter of 2025-Q4. We think that focus is related to the uncertainty investors have over how many rate cuts will take place during this final quarter of 2025.

Here are the week's market moving headlines:

Monday, 11 August 2025

• Signs and portents for the U.S. economy:
• Oil steady as markets focus on US-Russia talks
• Nvidia, AMD to pay 15% of China chip sale revenues to US, official says
• Bigger trouble developing in Japan:
• Japan's deepening political woes cloud budget, rate hike timing
• U.S. stocks slide as investors brace for a week of key inflation data
• Wall Street stocks end down, inflation data, China trade in focus
• Nvidia, AMD to pay 15% of China chip sale revenues to US, official says

Tuesday, 12 August 2025

• Signs and portents for the U.S. economy:
• July CPI: Consumer prices rose 0.2%, just below expectations
• CPI in charts: Annual headline inflation rate holds steady in July, core figure ticks up
• US, China extend tariff truce by 90 days, staving off surge in duties
• Oil prices hold steady as US and China extend tariffs deadline
• Cheaper gasoline restrains US consumer prices; worries about data quality rise
• Fed minions falling into line with need for rate cuts, Fed Chair facing legal pressure:
• Markets now pricing in three Fed rate cuts after July consumer inflation data
• Jobs data blasted by Trump seen by Fed officials as reason to cut
• Richmond Fed's Barkin: Consumers will be key to coming inflation, jobs results
• Trump cites 'major lawsuit' against Fed's Powell, again urges rate cut
• Bigger trouble developing in China:
• China factories cut shifts and workers' pay as US tariffs bite
• Central bank rate cuts in Australia:
• Australia cuts interest rates, signals more to come as inflation slows
• S&P, Nasdaq notch record closes as CPI data fuels Fed rate cut bets
• S&P 500, Nasdaq end at record closing highs as moderate inflation lifts rate hopes

Wednesday, 13 August 2025

• Signs and portents for the U.S. economy:
• Oil falls as IEA raises supply forecast, investors await US-Russia meeting
• US 30-year mortgage rate dropped last week, refi applications surged
• Fed minions send mixed signals on rate hikes:
• Fed cut seen near certain after inflation data, Bessent comments
• Fed's Goolsbee signals door open to rate cut in fall
• Fed grappling with impact of tariffs as it ponders rate decisions, Goolsbee says
• Fed can wait to adjust policy because job market is near full employment, Bostic says
• BOJ minions urged to hike Japan's interest rates, get their house in order:
• Bessent says BOJ is 'behind the curve' on inflation, likely to hike rates, in Bloomberg interview
• Japan's wholesale inflation slows for 4th month in July
• BOJ faces pressure to ditch obscure inflation gauge, clear path to tighter policy
• S&P 500, Nasdaq hit new closing highs on rate cut hopes
• Dow surges 1%, just misses out on record close; S&P and Nasdaq rise

Thursday, 14 August 2025

• Signs and portents for the U.S. economy:
• US producer inflation heats up as goods, services prices soar
• Instant view: US producer prices surge more than expected
• Oil prices climb 2% to 1-week high as Fed rate cut, Trump-Putin talks loom
• Fed minions push back on call for bigger rate cut:
• Fed's Daly says 50 basis point rate cut next month doesn't seem warranted, WSJ reports
• Bigger trouble developing in Eurozone, ECB expected to sustain pause in rate cuts:
• Euro zone industry shrinks more than feared in June but GDP holds up
• ECB to hold rates until at least December on stable economic outlook: Reuters poll
• Wall Street ends flat, but S&P hits another closing high as rate-cut bets waver
• Wall Street ended the day flat after a hotter-than-expected PPI report

Friday, 15 August 2025

• Signs and portents for the U.S. economy:
• Oil falls ahead of Trump-Putin summit in Alaska
• US manufacturing production stalls in July
• Even economists expect Fed minions to cut rates in September, Fed minions claim they want more inflation data before they do:
• US Fed to cut rates in September and once more this year, say most economists: Reuters poll
• Fed's Goolsbee: want more assurance on inflation to cut in Sept or autumn
• Bigger trouble developing in China:
• China's factory output, retail sales growth slump in blow to economy
• China's new home prices fall 0.3% in July
• China's property investment falls 12% y/y in January-July
• BOJ minions get better than expected GDP data and inflation data that backs plan for rate hike:
• Japan's economy expands annualised 1.0% in April-June
• Japan's July inflation rate likely eased but remained above BOJ target: Reuters poll
• Dow ends higher after UnitedHealth gains, other indexes slip on rate cut uncertainty
• Wall Street ended mostly lower as investors eye Trump-Putin summit in Alaska
• UnitedHealth surges after Warren Buffett bets on recovery

The Atlanta Fed's GDPNow tool projection of real GDP growth in the U.S. during the current quarter of 2025-Q3 held steady at +2.5% over the past week.

Image credit: Microsoft Copilot Designer. Prompt: "An editorial cartoon of Federal Reserve officials meeting with a tarot card reader who is advising them on how to set the Federal Funds Rate in September 2025".