The S&P 500 (Index: SPX) reached a new record high close on Friday, 27 June 2025, almost four months after it last set a new record. The index closed out the trading week at 6,173.10. The index rose 3.4% higher than it finished the preceding week.

The catalyst of the event was the announcement the U.S. and China had reached a trade deal during the week.

It could have been even bigger, but the news that the U.S. suspended trade deal talks with Canada knocked the index below its intraday trading high.

Even so, the S&P 500 muscled its way to a new record close. The latest update of the alternative futures chart finds that as the 2025-Q2 calendar quarter comes to an end, investors are focusing on the more distant future quarter of 2025-Q4 in setting stock prices, with the S&P 500's trajectory running in the lower portion of the forecast range for this quarter:

While the news of the trade deals capped off the week that was, they were far from the only market-moving headlines for the week. The positive outcome of the U.S.' attack on Iranian uranium enrichment facilities over the preceding weekend and the resulting cease fire between the Israel and Iran got the week off to strong start on the geopolitical front. In between that event and the trade-related news on Friday, much attention was given to what the Federal Reserve will be doing with U.S. interest rates in the second half of 2025. Here are the week's market moving headlines:

Monday, 23 June 2025

• Signs and portents for the U.S. economy:
• US attack on Iran adds to economic uncertainty
• Oil settles down 7% after Iran attacks US military base in Qatar, not tankers
• US existing home sales rise in May; mortgage rates still a constraint
• Pressure growing among Fed minions for rate cut:
• Fed's Goolsbee says tariffs have not had expected impact so far
• Fed's Bowman open to cutting rates at July policy meeting
• Fed's Bowman eyes broad set of bank capital reforms
• Fed to no longer police 'reputational risk' in banks
• Fed's Mary Daly says communication should have 'clarity' and 'flexibility'
• Bigger trouble developing in Eurozone:
• French private sector activity contracts further in June, PMI shows
• ECB minions say they'll only engage in bond buying in "exceptional" cases, really want a digital Euro:
• ECB's Nagel says bond-buying is only for exceptional cases
• ECB's Lagarde urges EU lawmakers to speed up digital euro law
• Shares advance, oil prices settle sharply lower as markets shrug off Iran conflict
• Wall Street advanced and oil slid after Qatar intercepted an Iranian attack on a U.S. base

Tuesday, 24 June 2025

• Signs and portents for the U.S. economy:
• Oil prices drop 6% as Israel-Iran ceasefire reduces Middle East supply risk
• Trump says China can buy Iranian oil, urges it to buy US crude
• Trump says US interest rates should be at least two to three points lower
• Fed minions resisting cutting rates, bitterly cling to belief tariffs will cause inflation:
• Powell repeats rate cuts can wait as Fed studies tariff impacts
• Fed's Williams sees slower growth, higher inflation this year on tariffs, uncertainty
• Fed's Schmid says there is time to study tariff effects before rate cuts
• Fed's Collins says modestly restrictive monetary policy is necessary right now
• Fed's Barr: inflation to rise, may see some persistence
• Fed's Hammack sees no imminent need to cut interest rates
• Fed officials are starting to break rank and join Trump
• Trump Slams "Dumb" Fed Chair As Powell Shrugs Off Dovish Colleagues, Reiterates "No Rush" To Cut
• Exclusive: Fed should wait on rate cuts with price hikes expected, Bostic says
• Tariffs were supposed to drive inflation. Why hasn't that happened?
• Tariffs and taxes are not very inflationary
• Bigger trouble, stimulus developing in China:
• Exclusive: Local Chinese governments promote 'zero-mileage' used car exports, inflating sales
• China can maintain high growth and transition to consumer-led economy, premier Li says
• China issues guidelines on financial support for boosting consumption
• BOJ minion still thinking about hiking Japan's interest rates some more as one inflation measure runs hot:
• Hawkish BOJ policymaker signals chance of 'decisive' rate hikes
• Japan's corporate service inflation hits 3.3% in May
• ECB minions say they would do something if faced with a "material" change in Eurozone inflation expectations:
• ECB would react to 'material' changes in inflation outlook, Lane says
• Wall Street surged on Israel-Iran ceasefire, S&P 500 ends less than 1% away from record close
• Nasdaq 100 notches first record high close since February

Wednesday, 25 June 2025

• Signs and portents for the U.S. economy:
• New home sales fall to seven-month low in May; supply increases
• US new vehicle sales set to rise 2.5% in June, report says
• Oil steadies as investors assess Iran-Israel ceasefire, demand outlook
• Outgoing chief Fed minion clings bitterly to belief tariffs will cause inflation, other minions to change rule to make it easier for government to borrow:
• Powell says Fed needs to manage against risk that tariff inflation proves persistent
• Powell calls reports of lavish Fed building renovations inaccurate
• Fed's Powell cautions against ending Fed power to pay interest on reserves
• Trump says he is considering three or four candidates for next Fed chair
• Fed advances plan to ease bank leverage requirements
• Fed Moves To Relax Key Capital Rule For Big Banks To Support Treasury Markets
• Fed hawks and doves: what US central bankers are saying
• Bigger stimulus, US trade deal developing in China:
• China's consumption push will support global growth, Premier Li says
• China takes action on key US fentanyl demands
• Exclusive: US allows ethane to be loaded and shipped to China, but not unloaded, letter says
• Wall Street ended mixed as Iran-Israel ceasefire seems to hold
• Wall Street ends mixed amid cooling Middle East tensions; Powell in focus
• Nvidia hits record high as analyst predicts AI 'Golden Wave'

Thursday, 26 June 2025

• Signs and portents for the U.S. economy:
• Oil rises as draw in US crude stocks signals firm demand
• US labor market softening as more people remain on unemployment rolls
• US demand for China-made goods ebbs on tariff worries; ocean shipping rates drop
• US durable goods orders soar in May on aircraft
• US goods trade deficit widens in May as exports fall
• US first-quarter GDP revised lower on tepid consumer spending
• Fed minions thinking maybe they should cut US interest rates, but not in July 2025:
• Fed rate cut in July? Inside the US central bank, few takers
• Fed's Kashkari expects two rate cuts this year, with pause possible
• Fed's Kashkari says more clarity needed on tariffs' impact on inflation
• Fed's Collins: not enough data by July to decide on a rate cut
• Fed's Barkin says tariffs will start pushing up inflation
• Market bets on a more dovish Fed as Trump eyes Powell's replacement
• Bigger trouble developing in China:
• US demand for China-made goods ebbs on tariff worries; ocean shipping rates drop
• GE Appliances to spend $490 million reshoring production of washing machines from China
• ECB minions using AI to improve their economic forecasts:
• ECB economists improve GDP forecasting with ChatGPT
• Wall Street ended higher as the S&P 500 came up just shy of its all-time trading high

Friday, 27 June 2025

• Signs and portents for the U.S. economy:
• US and China finalize trade deal; White House eyes agreements with 10 key partners, commerce secretary says
• US says deal with Beijing will expedite rare earth exports from China
• Trump cuts off US trade talks with Canada, shattering optimism over tariff deals
• Oil set for steepest weekly decline in two years as risk subsides
• Fed minions plan to spend their summer waiting for data:
• Summertime data to pave way for Fed rate cuts, or further conflict with Trump
• Bigger trouble, stimulus developing in China:
• China's factory activity expected to shrink for third month amid trade tensions: Reuters poll
• China's May industrial profits slip back into sharp decline
• China's central bank pledges to speed up policy response to economic conditions
• BOJ minions react to inflation data telling them to hike rates again by looking for other data that excuses them from hiking rates:
• Core inflation in Japan's capital slows but stays above BOJ target
• In dovish tilt, BOJ zooms in on obscure underlying inflation trends
• ECB minions told they're chasing the wrong inflation target they claim to be on path to hitting:
• ECB should change inflation target, researchers to tell policymakers
• ECB on path to meet its 2% inflation target, ECB's De Guindos Says
• Wall Street ended in the green as the S&P 500 and Nasdaq notched a new record close
• S&P 500 record fueled by earnings strength, easing tariff fear
• Nasdaq Composite hits record high; See Nasdaq-100's 10 best and worst YTD performers
• Safe-haven gold falls 2% on easing US-China trade tensions

The CME Group's FedWatch Tool projects the Fed will continue holding the Federal Funds Rate in a target range of 4.25-4.50% until its 17 September (2025-Q3) meeting, when it is expected to cut the rate by a quarter percent. The FedWatch Tool now anticipates the Fed will keep cutting the FFR a quarter point at a time twice more after that first cut in 2025, on 29 October (2025-Q4) and 10 December (2025-Q4), before slowing to cut rates at 12-week intervals into mid-2026.

The Atlanta Fed's GDPNow tool projection of real GDP growth in the U.S. during the current quarter of 2025-Q2 fell to +2.9% from the +3.4% level recorded a week earlier.

Image credit: Microsoft Copilot Designer. Prompt: "An editorial cartoon of a Wall Street bull celebrating a new record high for the S&P 500, while a Wall Street bear looks worried at a news headline that reads 'GOOD: TRADE DEAL WITH CHINA! BAD: CANADA TRADE TALKS OFF'".

How much will it cost to feed 10 hungry people at a summer cookout in 2025?

The American Farm Bureau Federation went grocery shopping for a summer cookout to find out their menu costs in 2025. They report their volunteer shoppers found the 10 items they went out to buy cost $70.92. The price is down by 30 cents from the $71.22 they reported last year, but is up 19% from what Americans paid for the same items five years earlier.

Most of that increase has taken place since 2021. The following interactive chart shows how much each individual menu item in the Farm Bureau's summer cookout menu cost in each year from 2021 through 2025. If you're accessing this article on a site that republishes our RSS news feed, you may need to click through to our site to see the chart, which we created using Datawrapper.

This format is nice for seeing the various menu items ranked from year to year, but it isn't great for seeing what trends there may be in the cost for each item from year to year. To better visualize that data, we turned to Microsoft Excel to develop a clustered column chart.

Most items show a surge from 2021 to 2022, coinciding with the high inflation unleashed by former President Biden's policies after March 2021. After 2022 however, most items have either shown flat trends or have even declined by small amounts, with some notable exceptions.

The most notable exceptions involve either beef or dairy products, which is to say they are cow-related [1]. These costs have been rising because of the decline of U.S. cattle and dairy herds because of drought conditions, where cattle ranchers and dairy farmers have had to make hard choices to reduce the number of cows they raise because of the drought's impact on pastureland and shortages of feed, which has inflated the costs to raise both beef and dairy cattle.

Getting back to the Farm Bureau's analysis of 2025's cost of a summer cookout, they conclude:

After years of sharp food inflation, prices for many Fourth of July staples are finally beginning to level out. While some prices, particularly for proteins, will continue to be volatile due to disease pressures and labor costs, others are stabilizing thanks to improving supply chains and easing input prices.

Which is nice after four years of Bidenflation. In the case of beef and dairy products, we anticipate these costs will remain elevated for at least another 2-4 more years given the time it takes to raise new generations of cows to rebuild herds.

[1] We've been waiting years to use that really bad statistical pun.

Image credit: Group of people cooking on a grill outside photo by Mike Kilcoyne on Unsplash

Political Calculations' initial estimate of the total market capitalization of new homes sold in the United States ticked up May 2025. The first estimate of the time-shifted trailing twelve month average of the total value of new homes sold during the month is $28.86 billion.

This figure represents an increase of 2.1% from our revised estimate of $28.26 billion in new homes sales in April 2025. The April 2025 data was revised upward from the initial estimate of $28.22 billion we presented last month.

The following charts present the U.S. new home market capitalization, the number of new home sales, and their sale prices as measured by their time-shifted, trailing twelve month averages from January 1976 through May 2025. The data for May 2025 indicates the new home market gained from higher sale prices and not a higher number of sales, which is not a good sign for homebuilders.

Falling new home sales trend:

Rising trend for home prices:

Reuters describes how the relative unaffordability of new homes is contributing to homebuilder woes:

Sales of new U.S. single-family homes fell by the most in nearly three years in May as high mortgage rates and rising economic uncertainty sapped demand, lifting the supply of unsold houses on the market to the highest level since late 2007.

The larger-than-expected decline in sales reported by the Commerce Department on Wednesday added to weak homebuilding and tepid sales of previously owned homes last month in suggesting that housing would subtract from gross domestic product in the second quarter after being neutral in the January-March quarter.

Mortgage rates have risen since bottoming in March 2025, contributing to the headwinds of affordability for new home buyers although they remain below the 7% threshold. We'll take a separate look at the relative affordability of new homes nationally within the next two weeks.

References

U.S. Census Bureau. New Residential Sales Historical Data. Houses Sold. [Excel Spreadsheet]. Accessed 23 May 2025. 

U.S. Census Bureau. New Residential Sales Historical Data. Median and Average Sale Price of Houses Sold. [Excel Spreadsheet]. Accessed 23 May 2025. 

Image credit: New Home Construction, Georgia USA by Paul Brennan on PublicDomainPictures.net. Creative Commons Creative Commons - CC0 Public Domain.

The typical house sold in each the fifty states is out of the affordable reach of the typical American household.

That's the main takeaway from Visual Capitalist's Dorothy Neufeld's infographic displaying the relative affordability of the median home sold in each state for a household earning the median income in each state. Here's the infographic:

Among all the states in this snapshot, Iowa comes closest to being affordable, while Montana, which has seen home prices rise rapidly in recent years, qualifies as the least affordable:

Iowa ranks as the most affordable state in the nation, with a median listing price of $294,600.

Overall, its home price to income ratio is among the lowest nationally, at 3.0. Despite single family home prices rising by 40% since 2020, prices remain affordable. Not only that, local jurisdictions in the state have issued more than 10,000 new housing permits annually since 2022.

By contrast, states with the lowest affordability scores included Montana, Idaho, and California.

In Montana, home prices have shot up 66% in the past four years—surpassing the 50% national average. As many have flocked to the state, it has drove up prices higher while wage increases have stagnated leading to a growing affordability crisis.

Neufeld is relying on the National Association of Realtors' analysis of home affordability, which is somewhat quirky. Their scale runs from 0 to 2, where a score of 1 represents the situation where a median income earning household can afford to buy the median priced home within the state. Scores below 1, as they are for all states by this measure, indicates the median income earning family cannot afford their state's median priced home. Here's how they describe the findings of their analysis:

We consider two correlated but distinct metrics for homeownership affordability in each state. The first is our REALTORS® Affordability Score, which can be explored here for data at a metro level. We calculate the score at the state level for the entire year of 2024, identifying what percentage of for-sale inventory in each state is affordable to households at varying points along the income distribution in that same state. The benefit of using the REALTORS® Affordability Score is that it measures housing affordability across the income spectrum. The score can range from 0 to 2, and a higher value indicates a more affordable market. Unfortunately, all 50 states and Washington, DC, score lower than 1 in this metric; Iowa comes in on top, at 0.92, and Montana is in last place, at 0.4.

We'll update our picture for the relative affordability of new homes at the national level within the next two weeks, but we anticipate the affordability crisis for new homes will enter its 38th consecutive month. Until then, it's interesting to see that every state is affected by that situation.

Image credit: Dorothy Neufeld. Mapped: U.S. Housing Afforability by State. Visual Capitalist. 29 May 2025.

In 1950, all of the gold that had ever been mined, panned, found, or otherwise extracted from the Earth added up to 72,088 metric tons. With a global population of 2.493 billion, dividing all that gold up equally among every person alive would have given each just over one ounce of the precious metal in that year.

Almost seventy five years later, the Earth's population has grown to exceed 8.162 billion. When it comes to dividing up all the gold that has ever been produced in the world, which of the following statements do you suppose is true?

1. Every person alive today would have less gold than their 1950 counterpart.
2. Every person alive today would have as much gold as their 1950 counterpart.
3. Every person alive today would have more gold than their 1950 counterpart.

Now, we're going to give you some more information that may or may not be a red herring in helping you determine which statement is true. In 1950, the U.S. market price of an ounce of gold was $35. On 13 June 2025, the market price of gold set a new record high of $3,432.56 per ounce, nearly 100 times more than it was in 1950. Which by the time you read this, may be a record that has been broken. Or perhaps not.

Ready for the answer? Through the end of 2024, all the gold ever extracted from the Earth in human history is estimated to total 216,265 metric tons. If all that gold was equally divided among each of the world's 8.162 billion people, each would have 0.935 ounces of gold. While still shy of a full ounce, every person alive today would still have less, but within a tenth of an ounce of their 1950 counterpart.

All that business about what the price of gold was in 1950 was and what it has increased to be was indeed a red herring for answering this question. It was intended to trick you into thinking about how prices change because of supply and demand, where today's higher price make sense if the relative supply of gold per person decreased by a lot.

But that's not what happened. The supply of gold per person increased and so did its price in U.S. dollars.

That can happen in at least two ways. First, the relative demand for gold has increased. Second, the supply of U.S. dollars, or perhaps more accurately, all money on Earth that people might use to buy gold, has risen faster than the supply of gold. If it were just U.S. dollars chasing after gold, $35 in 1950 dollars is about the same as $473 dollars in mid-2025 after inflation.

That would mean almost $3,000 of the increase has come about because some people around the world today have put a much higher demand on having gold and are bidding its price up.

Exit question: Do you suppose those people have more money than sense?

Image credit: U.S. Mint. American Eagle One Ounce Gold Proof Coin. Public domain image.

It was a disappointing week for the S&P 500 (Index: SPX). The index dropped just 0.15% from its previous week’s close to exit the trading week ending on Friday, 20 June 2025 at 5,967.84.

Keeping in mind that the weekend’s market-moving geopolitical events had not yet transpired, what made the week that was disappointing for Wall Street bulls was the continuing lack of action to cut interest rates by the U.S. Federal Reserve. That was of little surprise since Fed officials had well telegraphed their intention to continue holding the Federal Funds Rate steady in preceding weeks. Their inaction now stands out in contrast to other central banks that have either been actively cutting their regional interest rates for months or have begun reacting to geopolitical tensions by cutting their interest rates in the last week.

But for bulls anxious to see a reduction in U.S. interest rates, there was some positive news. After the Fed held the Federal Funds Rate (FFR) steady at a target rate of 4.25-4.50%, the CME Group's FedWatch Tool projects the Fed will continue holding the FFR at that level until its 17 September (2025-Q3) meeting, when it is expected to cut the rate by a quarter percent. Afterward, the FedWatch Tool anticipates the Fed will keep cutting the FFR a quarter point at a time at 12-week intervals into mid-2026.

The latest update of the alternative futures chart reveals the index is tracking along with the bottom of the expected range associated with investors focusing their forward-looking attention on the distant future quarter of 2025-Q4.

Here are the Juneteenth holiday-shortened week’s market-moving headlines, which we’ll note again do not include the surprising U.S. military attacks against Iran’s heavily armored uranium refining and nuclear development facilities. Investor reaction to that geopolitical event will arrive on Monday, 23 June 2025.

Monday, 16 June 2025

• Signs and portents for the U.S. economy:
• Oil slips as Israel-Iran strikes spare key energy infrastructure
• Nearly 1 million illegal immigrants have ‘self-deported’ under Trump, which has led to higher wages
• Signs of a Weaker Labor Market
• Fed minions wondering why their prediction for inflation from tariffs isn't panning out:
• Where is the tariff inflation, anyway?
• Mixed economic signs developing in China:
• China's factories slow, consumers unexpectedly perk up
• BOJ minions looking at ways to stimulate Japan's economy:
• BOJ to consider slower bond taper as fresh global risks emerge
• ECB minions "relaxed", Eurozone minions want to get US trade deal:
• ECB relaxed about euro strength, risk of too low inflation, de Guindos says
• EU prepared to accept flat 10% US tariff with conditions, Handelsblatt reports
• Not the time to mess with EU-US trade, EU's Costa says
• Nasdaq, S&P, Dow closed higher as Middle East tensions continue and Fed rate decision looms
• Equities end higher as oil prices pull back on truce hopes

Tuesday, 17 June 2025

• Signs and portents for the U.S. economy:
• Oil prices rise more than 4% as Iran-Israel conflict escalates
• Weak US retail sales, manufacturing output point to softening economy
• Fed minions meet, thinking about stimulus for U.S. economy:
• Fed policymakers meet as new data raises growth concerns, geopolitical risks rise
• Fed announces meeting to discuss easing bank leverage rules
• BOJ minions implementing ways to stimulate Japan's economy, say they are still thinking about hiking rates:
• BOJ to slow pace of bond tapering next year as fresh risks emerge
• Explainer: Why is the BOJ slowing its buying of Japanese government bonds?
• BOJ's inflation warning leaves room for another rate hike this year
• Wall Street ended lower as Israel-Iran conflict escalates and Fed rate announcement looms
• Indexes end lower as Israel-Iran fighting raises investor anxiety
• Solar stocks plunge on Senate proposal to phase out tax credits by 2028

Wednesday, 18 June 2025

• Signs and portents for the U.S. economy:
• US weekly jobless claims, housing data point to softening economic activity
• US single-family housing starts rise in May; permits slump
• US added over 1,000 new millionaires a day last year, UBS report says
• Oil settles higher as Iran-Israel conflict enters sixth day
• US rate futures bolster September, October rate cut chances after Fed decision
• Fed minions choose to not cut U.S. interest rates, as expected; cling bitterly to belief tariffs will cause inflation:
• Fed keeps rates steady; Powell sees 'meaningful' inflation ahead
• Fed's Powell says central bank still has the needed data to do its work
• Fed's Powell says he expects to see more tariff-driven price hikes in coming months
• Trump knocks Fed's Powell, muses about appointing himself to lead central bank
• Fed officials see two rate cuts in 2025, but overall turn hawkish
• Bigger trouble, stimulus developing in China:
• China Auto Industry On Verge Of Collapse As Six Major Cities Run Out Of Car-Buying Subsidies
• China will issue remaining consumer goods subsidies at stable rate, state media says
• BOJ minions get gloomy over Japan's economic outlook and impact on their rate hike plans; Japan's government minions stop trying to flood market with long-term debt:
• BOJ's gloomy projections suggest no rate hike this year, ex-top economist says
• Japan's exports post first drop in 8 months as US tariffs hit auto firms
• Exclusive: Japan to cut super-long bond sales by 10% to calm markets, draft shows
• Wall Street ends flat after Fed continues to stick to wait-and-see mode
• S&P 500 ends nearly flat, gives back gains; Fed's Powell says inflation to rise

Friday, 20 June 2025

• Signs and portents for the U.S. economy:
• Oil prices settle lower as US sanctions ease fears of escalation in Iran
• Oil hedging volumes hit new records as US producers rush to lock in soaring prices
• Citi sees oil prices of $75-$78/bbl if war disrupts 1.1 mln bpd of Iran's oil exports
• Fed divided over need for rate cuts, Fed minions in "no rate cut" camp cling bitterly to claims tariffs cause inflation, others say they'll cut rates in Fall 2025:
• Fed split over whether to hedge on inflation, proceed with cuts
• Exclusive: Fed's Barkin: No rush to cut, can't dismiss inflation risks from tariffs
• Still early to assess tariff impact on economy, Fed report says
• So, has anything actually gotten more expensive because of Trump’s tariffs?
• Fed's Daly says a rate cut in the fall could be appropriate
• Waller Puts In Bid For Next Fed Chair, Says Powell Should Cut "As Early As July"
• World central bankers capitulate and go into full rate cut mode:
• Oil, war and tariffs tear up markets' central bank roadmap
• Liquidity Floodgates Open As 3 Central Banks Unexpectedly Cut Rates In Under 24 Hours
• Return of Zero Interest Rate Policy as Swiss Central Bank Cuts Rates
• Norway central bank cuts rates in surprise move, eyes further reduction
• Sweden’s Central Bank Cuts Rate Amid Economic Uncertainty
• Bank of Mexico seen cutting key rate by 50 basis points next week
• Nasdaq, S&P, and Dow finished mostly lower as markets seesawed back and forth
• S&P 500, Nasdaq finish lower; investors uneasy about Middle East conflict

The Atlanta Fed's GDPNow tool projection of real GDP growth in the U.S. during the current quarter of 2025-Q2 fell to +3.4% from the +3.8% level recorded in the previous week.

Image credit: Microsoft Copilot Designer. Prompt: "An editorial cartoon of a Federal Reserve official trying to pull down a sign that says 'NO RATE CUT FOR YOU' while a disappointed bull watches".

It's 2025. Where are the flying cars that science fiction predicted decades ago would exist by now?

It's not for lack of effort. Most flying car concepts that have been created over the years however have mostly involved taking a conventional car and modifying it with conventional airplane-like features. A good example of one concept that may actually make it to the marketplace is Klein Vision's AirCar, which is featured in the following short video, which recaps the long history of these concepts:

Klein Vision's concept of a car with retractable flying surfaces has potential, but also has limitations. You can drive it down the road with the wings and tail retracted into the vehicle's body, but to get airborne, you will still need something very much like a dedicated airport runway to transition from road to sky. It's not like you can just lift off the road to get around traffic, you need sufficient space to deploy the wings without potentially smacking into vehicles in adjacent lanes.

Solving that problem will take a very different kind of form factor for the flying car concept. It will take some true outside-the-box thinking because ideally, the successful flying car of the future will fully fit within the space available in a single road lane and be able to lift off and get above traffic without coming into contact with other vehicles sharing the road at will.

That's why we find CycloTech's CruiseUp concept to be fascinating. Introduced in the following video, if it proves technologically viable, it could deliver the kind of mobility that futurists and every motorist who has ever been stuck in traffic have long wanted in a flying car:

Klein Vision and CycloTech's concepts represent different paths to get from highway to skyway. At this point of 2025, we're just happy that both concepts are getting real world tryouts.

Given the nature of what we do, we generally follow the same calendar as the U.S. stock market, posting articles on the days the market is open for business.

But we do make an exception and post articles on a handful of uniquely American holidays. Our favorite by far is Thanksgiving, which we celebrate over the course of the entire week with articles related to the holiday and the day after it. We also mark the Fourth of July, but typically on just the day itself.

In 2021, Juneteenth became a federal holiday, and thus also a holiday for the U.S. stock market. But before that, it wasn't anything close to a holiday celebrated across the United States by a majority of Americans.

Before 2021, it was mostly a regional holiday, most often celebrated in states that were part of the Confederacy during the U.S. Civil War by Americans who had been slaves up until the end of the conflict and by their descendants.

That pre-federal holiday history has a story all its own, which the Texas Institute for the Preservation of History and Culture told in a two part video series it posted on YouTube back in 2010. Their interest makes sense because Texas is the point of origin for what is now the national Juneteenth holiday. Here's Part 1:

Here's Part 2:

The day marking the true end of the practice of slavery in the United States is a day worth celebrating. It took much longer and cost more in suffering and blood than it should have, but when it finally came, it marked the fulfillment of a process and promise that began with the framing of the U.S. Constitution.

The outlook for the S&P 500's dividends in upcoming quarters is little changed since our previous snapshot of the future for the index' cash payouts a month ago.

The little change that has taken place however is mixed. For the three remaining quarters of 2025, expected dividends are up in the current quarter of 2025-Q2, up slightly in 2025-Q3, but down slightly in 2025-Q4. Here are the numbers recorded as of the close of trading on Monday, 16 June 2025.

• 2025-Q2: Increase of $0.14, rising to $19.21 per share
• 2025-Q3: Increase of $0.03, rising to $19.13 per share
• 2025-Q4: Decrease of $0.03, falling to $19.27 per share

The following animated chart shows how expectations for the S&P 500's quarterly dividends per share changed in the month from 15 April 2025 to 15 May 2025. If you're reading this article on a site that republishes our RSS news feed, you may need to click through to our site to see the animation.

This is the last time 2025-Q2 will be presented as a future quarter in this series. The expiration of June 2025's quarterly dividend futures contract will come with the close of trading on this upcoming Friday. We don't anticipate the projected dividends in the chart will change very much before it expires.

How changes in the outlook for dividends at specific points of time in the future contribute to changes in stock prices is described by this math.

More About Dividend Futures Data

For this series, we have been taking a snapshot of the CME Group's S&P 500 quarterly dividend futures data shortly after the second or third week of each month.

Dividend futures indicate the amount of dividends per share to be paid out over the period covered by each quarter's dividend futures contracts, which start on the day after the preceding quarter's dividend futures contracts expire and end on the third Friday of the month ending the indicated quarter. So for example, as determined by dividend futures contracts, the now "current" quarter of 2025-Q2 began on Saturday, 22 March 2025 and will end on Friday, 20 June 2025. From the perspective of dividend futures, 2025-Q3 will become the current quarter effective on Saturday, 21 June 2025.

Because dividend futures are tied to options contracts that run on this schedule, that makes these figures different from the quarterly dividends per share figures that are reported by Standard and Poor. S&P reports the amount of dividends per share paid out during regular calendar quarters after the end of each quarter. This term mismatch accounts for the differences in dividends reported by both sources, with the biggest differences between the two typically seen in the first and fourth quarters of each year.

Image Credit: Microsoft Copilot Designer. Prompt: "A crystal ball with the word 'SP 500' written inside it". And 'Dividends' written above it, which we added.

Do you ever get the feeling that the officials who operate the Federal Reserve are getting their advice on how to set interest rates from really bad carnival psychics?

Since they stopped cutting interest rates in December 2024, the probability of a recession starting in the U.S. has risen. That's according to a recession forecasting method developed by Jonathan Wright while working for the Federal Reserve Board back in 2006. The method, which incorporates the yields of constant maturity 10-year and 3-month U.S. Treasuries and also the level of the Federal Funds Rate, which the Fed sets, can provide a good indication of the relative risk of a recession starting in the next 12 months based on historic data.

After having been elevated at probabilities exceeding 70% through much of 2023 and 2024, the recession forecasting model's projections only begin to drop when the Fed started cutting interest rates in September 2024, ahead of the U.S. elections. The Fed continued cutting interest rates through December 2024, then stopped.

The probability a recession would start in the U.S. during the next 12 months dropped to as low as 21.8% on 7 March 2025, then began rising again. Six weeks ago, it had risen back up to 25.9%. For this update, we find it is still in that ballpark, having dipped slightly to 25.5%. The latest update of the recession probability track shows how the probability of recession has evolved since 20 January 2021 in the context of how the difference between the yields of the 10-year and 3-month U.S. Treasuries combined with the level of the Federal Funds Rate have changed over this time.

This newest estimate applies to the probability the NBER will someday pick a month between 16 June 2025 and 16 June 2026 as the starting point for a period of economic contraction for the U.S. economy.

If Federal Reserve officials had continued their 2024 election season rate cuts, the probability of recession would have dropped well below the 20% threshold by now. These officials claim they're worried about the potential for inflation from President Trump's reciprocal tariffs, which has yet to materialize in the inflation data even though those new tariffs were put into effect in early April 2025.

Looking forward, we anticipate the forecast recession probability will remain around this level in the near term because Federal Reserve officials are expected to continue their pause in rate cuts into September 2025. At present, the CME Group's FedWatch Tool projects the Fed will wait until 17 September (2025-Q3) to cut the Federal Funds Rate by a quarter point, which will be followed by more quarter point reductions at 12 week intervals going into 2026.

Unless a deep inversion of the U.S. Treasury yield curve were to develop in the weeks ahead, we think the forecast recession probability will likely remain near its current level until the Fed resumes cutting short-term U.S. interest rates.

We will continue following the Federal Reserve's Open Market Committee's meeting schedule in providing updates for the Recession Probability Track until the U.S. Treasury yield curve is no longer inverted and the future recession odds retreat below a 20% threshold.

Analyst's Notes

The recession probability we've presented is based on the Federal Reserve Board's yield curve-based recession forecasting model, which factors in the one-quarter average spread between the 10-year and 3-month constant maturity U.S. Treasuries and the corresponding one-quarter average level of the Federal Funds Rate. If you'd like to do that math using the latest data available to anticipate where the Recession Probability Track is heading, we have provided a tool to make it easy to do.

Previously on Political Calculations

We started this new recession watch series on 18 October 2022, coinciding with the inversion of the 10-Year and 3-Month constant maturity U.S. Treasuries. Here are all the posts-to-date on that topic in reverse chronological order, including this one....

• U.S. Recession Odds Holding Mostly Steady with Fed Holding Off on Rate Cuts
• U.S. GDP Contracts as Recession Odds Tick Up with Fed on Hold
• Decline in U.S. Recession Odds Stalls with Pause in Fed Rate Cuts
• U.S. Recession Probability Plunges to 27%
• U.S. Recession Probability Drops Below 50%
• U.S. Recession Odds Fall with Fed Rate Cut, But Are Still Elevated
• Triple Top Pattern Locking In for U.S. Recession Probability
• Triple Top Developing for U.S. Recession Probability
• U.S. Probability of Recession in Next Twelve Months Hovers Near 70%
• Recession Probability Falls After Hitting Double-Top
• U.S. Recession Probability Nears a Double-Top
• Probability of U.S. Recession Resurges to Nearly 75%
• U.S. Recession Odds Recede to Two Out of Three Chance in 2024
• U.S. Recession Probability Continues Receding on All Hallow's Eve
• U.S. Recession Probability Starts to Recede
• Probability of Recession Starting in Next 12 Months Breaches 80%
• U.S. Recession Probability on Track to Rise Past 80%
• U.S. Recession Probability Reaches 67%
• U.S. Recession Probability Shoots Over 50% on Way to 60%
• Recession Probability Nearing 50%
• Recession Probability Ratchets Up to Better Than 1-in-6
• U.S. Recession Odds Rise Above 1-in-10
• The Return of the Recession Probability Track

Image Credit: Microsoft Copilot Designer. Prompt: "An editorial cartoon of a Federal Reserve official consulting a psychic about whether to cut interest rates or not". We very slightly modified the text spoken by the psychic.