Halloween is here once again, which means its time to celebrate our most unusual and most erratic tradition. For us, there's nothing more scary than being invited to sit in a chair that, well, might as well be the spawn of the devil.

This Halloween, we have three unusual chairs to feature, which in a first for us, all involve video presentations by their designers. Are you ready to have a seat? How willing would you be to sit in any of these chairs?

The Sinking Chair

It's rare that a single movie inspires the design of a chair, but when that movie is The Shining, what kind of seat do you think will come out of that inspiration?

In our first featured video, Philipp Aduatz introduces us to The Sinking Chair, which we think takes the idea of an uncomfortable park bench to a whole new level:

Want to know more about how to approach this chair? Core77 provides this interpretation guide:

The Sinking Chair—seemingly descending into a pool of vivid red—captures a haunting interplay between modern design and profound narrative. Crafted from 3D-printed concrete and inspired by Stanley Kubrick's The Shining, the work symbolizes the enduring traces of trauma. Its clean, architectural form contrasts sharply with the fluid, organic resin symbolizing blood, evoking unease and introspection.

This piece embodies the idea that design holds the power to confront deeply human experiences. By addressing themes of collective trauma and the cyclical nature of conflict, the Sinking Chair invites viewers to reflect on the scars of the past and how they shape the present. It subtly alludes to contemporary political developments, including the resurgence of authoritarian tendencies and ideological divisions, which echo historical warnings and reinforce the importance of vigilance and empathy.

he chair explores the delicate tension between what is submerged and what persists, urging contemplation of memory, fragility, and resilience. Through its evocative design and material innovation, the Sinking Chair bridges the emotional and the functional, sparking dialogue about the evolving role of design in engaging with the human condition. It challenges us to consider not only what design can achieve aesthetically, but also how it can evoke empathy, reflection, and healing in an increasingly complex and polarized world.

And you can sit on it. Though perhaps not as comfortably as you might like.

The Spaghetti Western Saddle Chair

In the early days of radio, motion pictures and television, lots of entertainment was themed around the Old West in the United States. Eventually, people got tired of the genre and moved on to entertainment in other settings, but before they rode off into the proverbial movie sunset, a number of low budget Westerns made by Italians gave them their last true popular and critical success. Spaghetti westerns, as they came to be called, brought something new and different to the old Western tropes.

Well, saddle up pardner, because this time, Italian designer Raffaella Mangiarotti has brought the spirit of the spaghetti western to your home furnishings, in the form of the Pepe Chair. The following video tells the story....

As the video makes clear, there's a lot of skill and craft that goes into making a high quality leather chair that can truly make you feel like you're atop a horse while you watch television or toil away at your desk job.

The Banality of Evil in the Form of a Chair

Imagine you've been on your feet all day. You'd like nothing better than to plop down in your favorite comfy chair. But no, the twisted chair designer at Isekai.Lab has a different idea. Before you even think about sitting, first you have to solve... a Rubik's cube. But not just any Rubik's cube. The one you need to solve is the chair they've designed for you to sit upon, after you've successfully solved it. And then, it's not even a truly comfortable chair you can relax in, but rather a small stool. Here's a demonstration of their vision of evil in action (click the image to start playing the video):

Previously on Political Calculations

• Outside the Box Thinking: The Ghost Chair
• Cathisophobia
• Chairs to Haunt Your Dreams This Hallow's Eve
• Chairs of Terror
• Furnishings Fit for Halloween
• Happy Halloween! Now Have a Seat...
• Markets in Everything: Scary Chairs to Sit Upon

How is the U.S. new home market faring?

That's a more difficult question to answer than usual because the U.S. Census Bureau isn't publishing data on new residential sales with the federal government shutdown still dragging on. That matters because when we assess the relative health of the U.S. new home market, the primary data we employ is the Census Bureau's new residential sales data that tells us both the estimated number of new homes sold each month and the average price at which they sold. We multiply these figures together to produce an estimate of the total value of new homes sold within the U.S. each month. We then calculate the trailing twelve month average to smooth out seasonal variation in the data, shifting it "backward" in time so it becomes more of a contemporary indicator of the trends being experienced by the new home market.

But if that government-compiled data is not available, does that mean we're dead in the water for producing that kind of analysis?

Don't be silly. As with most data the government publishes that's useful, there are alternatives available from private sector sources that provide a similar window for looking into the state of the new home market. We're going to use one of those alternative sources to do that today, which will give us a different but still useful picture of the industry.

We've tapped Zillow's monthly data for new construction homes, which covers single family residences and condominiums, which is based on sales data for this class of real estate from major metropolitan areas in the U.S. to produce a national figure. That's a subset of the data that's compiled in the Census Bureau's new residential sales data, but should work to give us an idea of how the market is for the new construction homes in the markets that Zillow covers.

And also for which it has sales data. Because Zillow obtains its data from state and local sources that are slower to report their monthly new home sales figures, it lags a bit behind the national and regional estimates of new home sales data reported by the Census Bureau. Zillow provided its first estimate for August 2025 just two weeks ago.

Although Zillow has data extending back to January 2018, it has greatly expanded its coverage in recent years, which makes its older data less directly comparable to its more recent data. For our analysis, we'll focus on the period from January 2024 through August 2025 because this data is most similar in its scope of coverage to the data for August 2025.

From here, we'll treat Zillow's data for new construction sales for single family residences and condominiums just like the Census Bureau's new residential sales data for our analysis. The following charts present the U.S. new home market capitalization, the number of new construction sales, and their average sale prices as measured by their time-shifted, trailing twelve month averages from January 2024 through August 2025.

A falling trend for new construction sales:

A rise and fall in the trend for prices:

Starting with the chart showing the total valuation of new construction from January 2024 through August 2025, we'll start by noting August 2025's total valuation of $22.26 billion from Zillow's new construction is about 73% of our initial estimate of $30.53 billion for the total value of all new homes sold based on the U.S. Census Bureau's data in August 2025. That's large enough for Zillow's data to provide a good indication of the overall state of the U.S. new home market.

The trend data, indicated by the time-shifted trailing twelve month average (orange) in the chart shows the new home market was largely flat from January 2024 through August 2024, but has been slowly falling off in the year since.

That mirrors similar trends for the number of new construction sales over the same period of time.

The trend for the mean sale price of new construction shows a different pattern. Here, average sale prices rose from May 2024 through December 2024, but have fallen off in the months since. First slowly from December 2024 through May 2025, then more steeply.

That pattern indicates 2025 has been a difficult market for the builders of single family homes and condominiums. Although they've been lowering prices since the end of 2024, it hasn't been enough to reverse the downtrend in the number of sales. A good portion of that problem has been tied up with elevated mortgage rates, which have made new homes less affordable than they would otherwise be had these interest rates been lower. The problem of unaffordability is harming the market for new homes. And by extension, Americans seeking to become new homeowners.

The analysis that falls out from using Zillow's data on new construction homes largely squares with the analysis we've been doing for years with the Census Bureau's new home sales figures. The government shutdown isn't an obstacle for reading the state of the U.S. new home market.

References

Zillow. New Construction Sales Count. [CSV Document]. 16 October 2025. Accessed 28 October 2025.

Zillow. New Construction Mean Sale Price. [CSV Document. 16 October 2025. Accessed 28 October 2025.

Image credit: U.S. Census Bureau: New Single-Family Homes Sold Not as Large as They Used to Be.

As the third quarter of 2025 ended, the market capitalization of the S&P 500 (Index: SPX) added up to $59.32 trillion.

Four weeks later, Slickcharts estimated the total market cap of the index adds up to $62.25 trillion.

Yesterday, the three biggest component stocks of the index, Nvidia (NASDAQ: NVDA), Microsoft (NASDAQ: MSFT), and Apple (NASDAQ: AAPL) had one of their best trading days. NVDA's stock flirted with reaching a $5 trillion valuation, while the stocks of both Microsoft and Apple both surpassed $4 trillion in market value during the trading day, only for AAPL shares to fall below the level by the close.

Together, these three stocks alone account for more than one-fifth of the total value of the S&P 500 index. The following chart gives an indication of how much of the index' total market cap is accounted for by these three $4+ trillion firms.

Going into the trading day of 29 October 2025, it looks likely that NVDA will soon become the world's first $5 trillion company. FXStreet estimates that will officially happen when NVDA's share price closes above $205.36.

Our own back-of-the-envelope math using Slickcharts' market cap data for the S&P 500 and NVDA's relative share of the index suggest the stock would have to close at or above $205.44 per share to reach that threshold, which is definitely in the same ballpark. Regardless of the actual stock price at which it happens, when combined with two other companies joining NVDA in the $4+ trillion valuation club, it's kind of the stock market equivalent of seeing a three-planet conjunction in the sky. It doesn't really mean anything, but it's cool to see happen for the first time ever all the same.

After pausing for nine months, the U.S. Federal Reserve resumed cutting interest rates on 17 September 2025. The Fed reduced the Federal Funds Rate by a quarter percent to a target range of 4.00-4.25%.

As expected, this action reduced the probability a recession will begin in the next twelve months. The recession forecasting method we've used to monitor the odds of recession starting in the U.S. indicates the recession probability has dipped from 26.5% six weeks ago to 23.7% as the Fed appears set to reduce U.S. interest rates further.

We anticipate that action will continue pushing the odds of a U.S. recession starting in the next twelve months down slowly because of the expected small size of its imminent rate cut. We project that in the next six weeks, the probability of a U.S. recession getting started in the next twelve months will be around 21%.

Then, assuming the Fed acts again in six weeks to cut U.S. interest rates by another quarter point, as is currently expected by the CME Group's FedWatch Tool, we should see the recession probability drop below the key 20% threshold in early 2026.

The following update to the Recession Probability Track shows how the probability of recession has evolved from 20 January 2021 through 15 September 2025 in the context of how the difference between the yields of the 10-year and 3-month U.S. Treasuries combined with the level of the Federal Funds Rate have changed over this time.

A 20% probability represents the "background" probability of recession for the U.S. economy. By this, we mean that if you packed a bag a marbles identified with every month and year the United States has been an independent nation and picked one at random, you would have a 20% chance of picking a marble with a date the U.S. economy was in recession. We plan to end this series after the probability of recession drops below this probability threshold.

However, that doesn't mean the U.S. economy is not experiencing recessionary conditions today, for which there are some indications of distress:

It often seems that economists are perpetually warning us about the next U.S. recession. One influential analyst says an economic slowdown is already a fact of life for many Americans.

Twenty-two states are “now experiencing persistent economic weakness and job losses that are likely to continue," said Mark Zandi, the chief economist at Moody’s Analytics, to MarketWatch. The overall American economy is “on the precipice. Government data released before the shutdown showed the “broader economy was in pretty good shape,” said MarketWatch, but some are skeptical. The gross domestic product might be rising, said Zandi, but the “job market is weaker.”

Other observers are warning of a bifurcated “K-shaped economy,” said CNBC. Wealthy Americans are “engaging their purchasing power,” but lower- and middle-class consumers are struggling with “rising costs on daily essentials like groceries and gas.” Meanwhile, “unofficial signals” like rises in missed car payments and women leaving the workforce are offering “early warning signs about what is to come,” said Quartz.

These conditions haven't developed in a vacuum. The onset of these conditions have coincided with elevated probabilities of recession that the recession forecasting model we track was projecting more than a year ago. Here's a short summary of when the model anticipated those conditions could develop into a higher likelihood of recession.

50% Probability of Recession

• 13 February 2023 through 29 November 2025

60% Probability of Recession

• 25 April 2023 through 29 October 2025

70% Probability of Recession

• 25 May 2023 through 8 October 2024
• 31 January 2024 through 29 March 2025
• 5 September 2024 through 20 September 2025

These are the periods the recession forecasting method predicts the National Bureau of Economic Research will someday identify as containing the month in which a period of economic contraction began. Note that we're still within the periods to which several of these heightened probabilities apply, which we've indicated with red boldface font.

The three sets of dates that apply for a 70% or greater probability of recession relate to a "triple-top" series of peaks the model has recorded since mid-2023.

The end of the first period at this greatly elevated recession probability coincides with when the U.S. Federal Reserve initiated a new series of interest rate cuts that took place between September and December 2024 to forestall a recession from starting in the U.S. during the 2024 election season.

The first two periods coincide with a period of anemic job growth in the U.S. economy, which is confirmed by Bureau of Labor Statistics data that has undergone two massive downward revisions in the last 13 months.

The third period coincides with the timing for when the Federal Reserve resumed cutting U.S. interest rates to address a slowing economy in September 2025.

The most important thing to take away from this retrospective analysis is that the recession model's forecasts for these elevated recession probabilities were set more than a year ago. Today's economic weakness has been baked in for a very long time.

Analyst's Notes

The recession probability we've presented is based on the Federal Reserve Board's yield curve-based recession forecasting model, which factors in the one-quarter average spread between the 10-year and 3-month constant maturity U.S. Treasuries and the corresponding one-quarter average level of the Federal Funds Rate. If you'd like to do that math using the latest data available to anticipate where the Recession Probability Track is heading, we have provided a tool to make it easy to do.

Previously on Political Calculations

We started this new recession watch series on 18 October 2022, coinciding with the inversion of the 10-Year and 3-Month constant maturity U.S. Treasuries. Here are all the posts-to-date on that topic in reverse chronological order, including this one....

• U.S. Recession Probability Falls After Fed Resumes Rate Cuts, Set to Fall Further
• U.S. Recession Probability as Fed Finally Set to Resume Rate Cuts
• U.S. Recession Odds Holding Mostly Steady with Fed Holding Off on Rate Cuts
• U.S. GDP Contracts as Recession Odds Tick Up with Fed on Hold
• Decline in U.S. Recession Odds Stalls with Pause in Fed Rate Cuts
• U.S. Recession Probability Plunges to 27%
• U.S. Recession Probability Drops Below 50%
• U.S. Recession Odds Fall with Fed Rate Cut, But Are Still Elevated
• Triple Top Pattern Locking In for U.S. Recession Probability
• Triple Top Developing for U.S. Recession Probability
• U.S. Probability of Recession in Next Twelve Months Hovers Near 70%
• Recession Probability Falls After Hitting Double-Top
• U.S. Recession Probability Nears a Double-Top
• Probability of U.S. Recession Resurges to Nearly 75%
• U.S. Recession Odds Recede to Two Out of Three Chance in 2024
• U.S. Recession Probability Continues Receding on All Hallow's Eve
• U.S. Recession Probability Starts to Recede
• Probability of Recession Starting in Next 12 Months Breaches 80%
• U.S. Recession Probability on Track to Rise Past 80%
• U.S. Recession Probability Reaches 67%
• U.S. Recession Probability Shoots Over 50% on Way to 60%
• Recession Probability Nearing 50%
• Recession Probability Ratchets Up to Better Than 1-in-6
• U.S. Recession Odds Rise Above 1-in-10
• The Return of the Recession Probability Track

Image Credit: Microsoft Copilot Designer. Prompt: "An editorial cartoon of Federal Reserve officials meeting with a carnival fortune teller as they decide how to change interest rates".

The S&P 500 (Index: SPX) clocked another record high for 2025, rising 1.9% over its previous week's close to 6,791.69 at the end of trading on Friday, 24 October 2025.

With the fourth quarter's earnings season under way, good earnings reports and optimism about the prospects for future earnings helped solidify stock prices early in the week. On Friday however, stock prices rose as investors absorbed two new pieces of information.

The first of those two new pieces of information was the shutdown-delayed release of the Consumer Price Index, which confirmed inflation during September 2025 had come in slightly lower than had been expected. That was significant because it clears the way for the Federal Reserve to continue cutting the Federal Funds Rate.

The CME Group's FedWatch Tool forecasts the Fed's next action will be to reduce this rate by a quarter point on Wednesday, 29 October (2025-Q4). Looking beyond that date, the FedWatch tool predicts the Fed will deliver another quarter point when it next meets to set rates on 10 December (2025-Q4).

The second new piece of information was the confirmation U.S. President Donald Trump would meet with China's President Xi Jinping to potentially unveil a new trade deal between the two nations at the Association of South East Asian Nations (ASEAN) summit within the next several days, which added a speculative boost to the S&P 500 because it prompted investors to shift their time horizon from 2026-Q2 to 2025-Q4.

That shift can be seen in the latest update of the alternative futures chart, which visualizes the potential trajectories the S&P 500 may take depending upon how far into the future investors are focusing their forward-looking attention.

Next week could see more stock price movement related to news of trade deals made at the ASEAN summit. Until then, here are the market moving headlines that shaped investors' future expectations during the trading week ending on 24 October 2025:

Monday, 20 October 2025

• Signs and portents for the U.S. economy:
• US-China trade war clouds global economic outlook as 'new normal' emerges
• Trump approves expanding credits for US auto production, issues new 25% truck duties
• China imports no US soybeans in September for first time in seven years
• Oil prices slip on concerns over a supply glut
• US regional banks' earnings under scrutiny with jitters over credit risks
• Investor behind Zions, Western Alliance bad loans is tied to $270 million in troubled debt
• US bank rout prompts deal speculation as credit worries loom
• US bets on Australian miners to break China's grip on critical minerals supply
• US, Australia to invest $2 billion in critical minerals, advance Alcoa gallium project
• Bigger trouble, stimulus developing in China:
• China's economy slows as trade war, weak demand highlight structural risks
• Instant View: China Q3 GDP growth slows to 4.8% y/y, in line with forecast
• Fall in China's exports of rare earth magnets stokes supply chain fears
• China's new home prices fall at fastest pace in 11 months
• BOJ minions trying to be mysterious about what they're going to do for some reason:
• Bank of Japan's Ueda keeps cards close to chest ahead of October meeting
• Hawkish BOJ board member keeps up calls for more rate hikes
• BOJ may slightly revise up this year's growth forecast, sources say
• Wall Street ended higher ahead of a busy earnings week and inflation data
• Wall St ends sharply higher as earnings optimism fuels risk appetite
• Why stocks and gold are rallying together like it's 1999 and 1979 simultaneously

Tuesday, 21 October 2025

• Signs and portents for the U.S. economy:
• Oil settles higher as investors focus on supply signals
• US seeks 1 million barrels of oil for Strategic Petroleum Reserve
• Fed minions expected to deliver two more rate cuts before end of 2025:
• US Fed to trim rates twice more this year; 2026 rate path very unclear
• Waller says Fed staff studying streamlined 'payment accounts'
• Bigger trouble, stimulus developing in China:
• Foreign Investors Trapped in China’s Real Estate Meltdown as $140 Billion Bet Unravels Further
• China's consumer subsidy scheme needs a rethink
• BOJ minions get new big boss who wants to see wage-price inflation:
• Japan's Takaichi calls on BOJ to pursue inflation driven by wage gains
• Japan's next finance minister could unsettle yen bears
• ECB minions worrying about US dollar:
• ECB's Lane flags dollar risk for banks amid tariff turmoil
• Wall Street closed mixed as traders digested a wave of earnings data
• Wall Street ends mixed as earnings lift the Dow
• Gold retreats after record rally, on track for biggest daily drop since 2020

Wednesday, 22 October 2025

• Signs and portents for the U.S. economy:
• Oil rises about 2% on higher US demand, trade talk optimism
• Exclusive: US considering curbs on exports to China made with US software, sources say
• India nears deal to slash US tariffs on Indian imports to 15%-16%, Mint reports
• Fed minions thinking big banks may not need to stash so much capital:
• US Fed floats plan with smaller capital hikes for big banks, Bloomberg News reports
• US banks' surge in loans to private creditors may pose risks, Moody's says
• BOJ minions expected to hike Japan's interest rates as Japan's export economy shows recovery signs:
• BOJ poised to hike interest rates in Q4, majority of economists say
• Japan's exports snap four-month slump as weak yen offsets US tariff hit
• ECB minions / Bigger trouble developing in Eurozone:
• China overtakes US as Germany's top trading partner
• Airbus opens second jet assembly line in China as it targets production growth
• Nasdaq slumps more than 1% as Netflix's plunge drags Wall Street lower
• Netflix's blockbuster run loses spark amid valuation jitters
• A $619 Million Surprise Hit Netflix's Margins
• Wall Street ends lower on mixed earnings, revived US-China trade tensions

Thursday, 23 October 2025

• Signs and portents for the U.S. economy:
• Oil surges as Russia sanctions roil market, but western enforcement is key
• Exclusive: China state oil majors suspend Russian oil buys due to sanctions
• Russia, at war, faces double trouble: Trump ultimatum and a hit to oil sales to India
• China, U.S. to hold trade talks in Malaysia as truce deadline nears
• US existing home sales hit 7-month high; affordability remains a challenge
• Fed minions working on a new scheme for setting U.S. interest rates:
• Dallas Fed chief's rate target reform welcomed amid very uncertain timetable
• Bigger stimulus developing in China:
• China's new five-year plan sharpens industry, tech focus as US tensions mount
• BOJ minions get mixed economic data to cloud their plan to hike Japan's interest rates:
• Japan's core inflation accelerates in September, stays above BOJ target
• Japan's factory activity hits 19-month-low in October, PMI shows
• Wall Street ended higher as Trump–Xi meeting was confirmed
• Wall St ends higher amid mixed earnings, Trump-Xi meeting confirmed

Friday, 24 October 2025

• Signs and portents for the U.S. economy:
• US consumer inflation cools in September; shutdown threatens next report
• VIEW US consumer prices increase less than expected in September
• Oil climbs for second day on supply fears due to US sanctions on Russian companies
• Fed minions expected to deliver rate cut next week, thinking about undoing excessive regulation on banks:
• 'Cooler' Than Expected CPI Data Leaves Fed On Track For Rate-Cuts
• Fed seen headed for more rate cuts as inflation undershoots expectations
• Fed to hand banks a win with proposed 'stress test' overhaul
• Bigger trouble, stimulus developing in China:
• US launches investigation into China's compliance with 2020 trade deal
• Growth signs developing in Eurozone:
• Euro zone business activity growth accelerates as demand jumps, PMI shows
• Wall Street notches record close after soft CPI data, posts best week since early August
• Wall Street notches record closing highs on cool inflation, solid earnings

The Atlanta Fed's GDPNow tool projection of real GDP growth in the U.S. during the recently ended 2025-Q3 remained unchanged at +3.8% with data reports on hold because of the Senate Democrats' ongoing refusal to fund government operations. The BEA's official estimates of GDP will be on hold as well.

Image credit: Microsoft Copilot Designer. Prompt: "An editorial cartoon of a Wall Street bull who is happy with a lower-than-expected inflation report and upcoming trade talks between U.S. President Trump and China's Chairman Xi", followed by a second prompt: "Add another speech bubble that says "No wonder the S&P 500 set a new record high!"

How much income does the household in the exact middle of the income distribution in your state earn in a year?

Visual Capitalist's Niccolo Conte and Joyce Ma tapped the results of the U.S. Census Bureau's American Community Survey for 2024 to find out. They produced the following map to visualize what they found within the United States:

Conte summarizes where the highest and lowest incomes earned by the typical household in each state within the United States are to be found:

High-Earning States Concentrated on the Coasts

The states with the highest household earnings are heavily concentrated along the coasts, with Colorado being the highest-earning landlocked state at ninth on the list with $97,113. Utah is the next non-coastal state with a high level of household earnings at $96,658, ranking 10th overall.

The eight coastal states ahead of Colorado and Utah all had a median household income of at least $99,000, all at least 20% above the national median household income.

These coastal states benefit from robust technology, professional services, and government sectors that tend to offer higher-paying jobs, while also often having higher costs of living.

Southern States Lag Behind the National Median Income

States in the South continue to have many of the lowest household incomes in the U.S., often trailing significantly behind the national median of $81,604.

After Mississippi at $59,127, the next two lowest-earning states were West Virginia ($60,798) and Louisiana ($60,986).

Other states below $65,000 (20% below the national median) were Arkansas and Kentucky with $62,106 and $64,526 in median household income respectively.

While these figures are significantly below the national median, they do coincide with lower housing and living costs, providing a more balanced standard of living.

While not a state, Washington D.C. holds the top position, with a household at the 50th percentile in the nation's capitol collecting an annual income of $110,000. At the other extreme, a household in Mississippi, the lowest ranking state for median household income in 2024, earns $51,000 a year less.

References

Niccolo Conta and Joyce Ma. MiscMapped: Median Household Income by U.S. State. Visual Capitalist. [Online article]. 15 October 2025.

When the U.S. government's 2025 fiscal year ended on 30 September 2025, its total public debt outstanding totaled $37,637,553,494,935.61. Or to say it more simply, 37.638 trillion dollars.

From the end of its 2024 fiscal year, the nation's national debt increased by $2.173 trillion, or by about 6.1%, from its 2024 fiscal year end total. Believe it or not, that's an improvement over the previous year, which had seen the nation's public debt rise by over $2.297 trillion, or 6.9%, from how big it was at the end of its 2023 fiscal year.

All of these are gigantic numbers. We can put them into a more human scale by dividing the U.S. national debt among the nation's estimated 134,800,000 households. Divided equally, each household would see $279,210 added on top of all their other debt.

That's just a little more than the asking price for a 940 square foot apartment with one bedroom and one bathroom in Staten Island, New York. Imagine if your household borrowed $279,210 to buy that property at that price in addition to paying for your current residence. Now imagine 134,800,000 other U.S. households borrowing $279,210 each to buy an identical property for the same price.

You would have to borrow that money from somewhere, and in the case of the U.S. government, it's a little more complicated than going to the local bank. To whom does the U.S. government owe $37.638 trillion?

The following chart provides a first estimate of who the U.S. government's biggest creditors are at the end of its 2025 fiscal year, along with the portion of the national debt they are owed.

It will be months before all the numbers for 2025 are finalized. This chart presents a first estimate of who owns the U.S. national debt, which should be within a few tenths of a percent for most of the major holders of debt securities issued by the U.S. government.

The Overall Picture

The U.S. Federal Reserve is once again the U.S. government's single largest creditor holding U.S. government-issued debt securities worth 11.2% of the U.S. government's entire total public debt outstanding. However, its share of the national debt is down from the 18.3% it held in 2022 and the 12.4% recorded last year as the Federal Reserve has continued reducing its holdings. In doing so, the Fed is still following the monetary policy of shrinking its balance sheet that it initiated in March 2022 when it began hiking interest rates to combat inflation unleashed by President Biden's policies.

In terms of total share, U.S. individuals and institutions such as banks, insurance companies, investment funds, corporations, and individuals collectively increased their share of the national debt from 48.8% in 2024 to 50.4% in 2025.

Social Security's share of the national debt plunged from 7.3% in 2023 to 6.4% in 2024. This decline coincides with the ongoing depletion of its Old Age and Survivors Insurance trust fund, which has run in the red in every year since 2009.

The combined share of the U.S. national debt held by the government's military (4.8%) and civilian (2.9%) employee retirement trust funds grew from 7.5% to 7.7% from FY 2024 to FY 2025.

Altogether, the portion of the U.S. national debt held by U.S. entities in 2024 is 75.7%, a small dip from the 76% in 2024.

Foreign Holdings

The portion of the U.S. total public debt outstanding held by foreign individuals and institutions is 24.3%, which is up from the 24.0% recorded a year earlier.

The share of the national debt held by Japan and China, the two largest foreign holders of U.S. government-issued debt securities, declined. Japan's share fell from 3.2% to 3.1% from 2024 to 2025. China and Hong Kong's combined share likewise dipped from 2.8% to 2.6%.

Other nations' institutions, which have individually lent the U.S. government much smaller amounts of money than those of Japan and China, have collectively increased their lending to the U.S. national government over the past year.

About the Data

The U.S. government's total public debt outstanding is the value recorded for 30 September 2025, the final day of the government's 2025 fiscal year, which also applies for the portion of the national debt held by the government-operated trust funds for Social Security, military and civilian government employees. Data for foreign holdings is based on estimates through July 2025 that was available on 17 October 2025. The Federal Reserve's holdings are those recorded on 24 September 2025.

Fall marks the return of soup season in the United States, as cooling temperatures put hot dishes like Campbell's Tomato Soup back on Americans' home menu.

This year's fall is remarkable because the trailing twelve month average sale price of an iconic Number 1 size can of Campbell's Condensed Tomato Soup declined by a small amount. Thanks to discounted sale prices at several grocery-selling retailers in recent months, American consumers are seeing lower prices than they did a year ago.

This outcome suggests the Campbell's Company's (NYSE: CPB) CFO Carrie Anderson's efforts to rein its costs to minimize the impact of new tariffs are seeing some success. In its most recent quarterly report, the company indicated its "adjusted gross profit margin decreased 90 basis points to 30.5% mainly driven by cost inflation and other supply chain costs inclusive of a moderate tariff impact, partially offset by supply chain productivity improvements, favorable net price realization and the benefits from cost savings initiatives". The cost savings initiatives have allowed Campbell's to minimize changes to the prices consumers see.

Here are the results for our October 2025 survey of prices for Campbell's Tomato Soup and ten major grocery stores and grocery-selling retailers, along with how these prices have changed since our July 2025 snapshot:

• Walmart: $1.24/each, decrease of $0.02 (-1.6%)
• Amazon: $0.97/each, decrease of $0.29 (-23.0%)
• Kroger: $1.00/each, decrease of $0.50 (-33.3%)
• Walgreens: $1.99/each, unchanged
• Target: $1.39/each, unchanged
• CVS: $2.49/each, unchanged
• Albertsons: $1.49/each, decrease of $0.20 (-11.8%)
• Food Lion: $1.25/each, unchanged
• H-E-B: $1.24/each, decrease of $0.07 (-5.3%)
• Meijer: $1.29/each, unchanged

The biggest discounts are at Amazon and Kroger. Meanwhile, Walmart has lowered its regular price for Campbell's Tomato Soup to $1.24 per can, while H-E-B appears to have matched Walmart's price with its latest discounted sale price.

Here's our chart tracking the price per can of Campbell's condensed tomato soup from January 2000 through October 2025.

And to think, when Campbell's Tomato Soup first rolled out to U.S. grocery store shelves in 1898, a single can cost $0.10. In 2000, a single can cost $0.34 on average. Flash forward to today's price and these figures rather put the inflation of the 21st century into perspective.

Video credit: Campbell's Tomato Soup Old Time Radio Advertisement posted by JedwardsMedia.

The outlook for the S&P 500's dividends in the current and remaining quarters of 2025 saw small changes in the month since we last presented a snapshot of their future. The changes were mixed overall, with the total change over all future quarters we previously covered netting out to zero.

Our last snapshot of the CME Group's S&P 500 Quarterly Dividend Index' Futures quotes was taken on 15 September 2025. The new snapshot is from Wednesday, 15 October 2025. Here is a short summary of the changes over the month-long interval between the snapshots:

• 2025-Q3: Finalized at $19.64 per share, no change.
• 2025-Q4: Increase of $0.02, rising to $19.90 per share
• 2026-Q1: Decrease of $0.02, dipping to $20.90 per share

We're also introducing the outlook for the second quarter of 2026 in our presentation this month, for which the CME Group's futures project quarterly dividends of $19.72 per share.

The following chart presents the S&P 500's quarterly dividends per share as provided by dividend futures contracts from 2023-Q1 through 2026-Q2.

Overall, the dividend outlook in future quarters is improving over time, with the projections for each quarter coming in higher than the same quarter in preceding years. At the same time, the projected rate of dividend growth for future quarters is slowing.

We've focused on presenting the dividend futures data for the current quarter (2025-Q4) and the next two quarters (2026-Q1 and 2026-Q2) because the S&P 500 investors have focused their attention on these quarters in recent weeks.

More About Dividend Futures Data

How changes in the outlook for dividends at specific points of time in the future contribute to changes in stock prices is described by this math.

For this series, we have been taking a snapshot of the CME Group's S&P 500 quarterly dividend futures data shortly after the second or third week of each month.

Dividend futures indicate the amount of dividends per share to be paid out over the period covered by each quarter's dividend futures contracts, which start on the day after the preceding quarter's dividend futures contracts expire and end on the third Friday of the month ending the indicated quarter. As determined by dividend futures contracts, the now "current" quarter of 2025-Q4 began on Saturday, 20 September 2025 and will end on Friday, 19 December 2025. From the perspective of dividend futures, the next quarter of 2026-Q1 will begin on Saturday, 22 December 2025.

Because dividend futures are tied to options contracts that run on this schedule, that makes these figures different from the quarterly dividends per share figures that are reported by Standard and Poor. S&P reports the amount of dividends per share paid out during regular calendar quarters after the end of each quarter. This term mismatch accounts for the differences in dividends reported by both sources, with the biggest differences between the two typically seen in the first and fourth quarters of each year.

Image Credit: Microsoft Copilot Designer. Prompt: "A crystal ball with the word 'SP 500' written inside it". And 'Dividends' written above it, which we added.

The S&P 500 (Index: SPX) continued bouncing around on headlines related to the U.S. and China's trade actions against each other. This week, the index rose 1.7% as investors perceived the trade news to be more favorable, as the S& 500 rose to close out the trading week ending Friday, 17 October 2025 at 6,664.01.

Meanwhile, Federal Reserve officials gave stronger indications they will act to cut the Federal Funds Rate at the end of the month. The CME Group's FedWatch Tool projects a greater than 99% probability of two more quarter point cuts in 2025, coming on 29 October (2025-Q4) and 10 December (2025-Q4). In 2026, the FedWatch tool forecasts a slower pace for additional rate cuts, with better than 50% probabilities for quarter point rate cuts on 28 January (2026-Q1) and then not again until 17 June (2026-Q2).

The main focal point for forward-looking investors remains the Fed's plans to cut rates in 2026. The latest update of the alternative futures chart reveals the S&P 500's trajectory remains consistent with the dividend futures-based model projections for where the S&P 500 would be expected to be when investors fix their attention on 2026-Q2 as they set current day stock prices, though the trajectory is falling in the lower half of the expected range for that investing time horizon:

Here are the market moving headlines investors absorbed throughout the trading week.

Monday, 13 October 2025

• Signs and portents for the U.S. economy:
• Trump downplays rift with China, says U.S. 'wants to help'
• Oil settles higher as US, China try to de-escalate trade tensions
• OPEC points to smaller 2026 oil supply deficit as OPEC+ pumps more
• US Treasury chief says government shutdown is hitting economy
• Amazon to hire 250,000 workers during holiday season for third straight year
• Fed minions say they expect to cut rates again and also that they'll do something about inflation if there is any:
• Fed's Paulson anticipates more rate cuts to support job market
• Fed's Paulson says Fed would react to burst of inflation
• Growth signs, tariff war developing in China:
• China ‘not afraid of trade war,’ accuses U.S. of ‘double standard’ for rare earths retaliation
• China's exports top forecast but fresh US trade spat raises risks to outlook
• China's car sales pick up speed in 'Golden September'
• Wall Street rebounds as Trump softens rhetoric on China exports control tensions
• Wall Street ends sharply higher on Trump China comments; Broadcom surges
• Broadcom surges after OpenAI deal for 10 gigawatts of custom AI accelerators

Tuesday, 14 October 2025

• Signs and portents for the U.S. economy:
• US banking giants buoyed by dealmaking, but warn of asset price bubbles
• Oil settles down 1.5% on US-China trade tensions, IEA warning of glut
• US oil futures backwardation narrows to 20-month low on mounting fears of a glut
• Oil executives flag increased costs from Trump's tariffs
• World oil market to see huge glut in 2026, IEA says
• Oil bosses expect market surplus to shrink over time
• Fed minions set out case for more rate cuts, end of quantitative tightening policies:
• Fed's Powell says economy may be on firmer footing, but job market weak
• Fed's Powell says the end of balance sheet drawdown process may be nearing
• Fed's Powell addresses economy pulled between risks to growth, jobs and prices
• Fed's Collins still favors additional rate cuts to aid job market
• Fed's Bowman expects two more interest rate cuts this year
• Bigger trouble, stimulus developing in China:
• China is making it harder to get rare earth magnet export licenses, sources say
• US, China roll out tit-for-tat port fees, threatening more turmoil at sea
• US tariffs on China on Nov 1 depend on Beijing's actions, USTR Greer tells CNBC
• Trump mulls ending some trade ties with China, including in relation to cooking oil
• ECB minions looking to US for leadership as bigger trade trouble develops in Eurozone:
• World needs U.S. engagement for financial stability, ECB's Villeroy says
• China's rare earth curbs put Europe's auto industry at risk, Italian lobby says
• EU seeks US alliance to counter China rare earth crackdown
• S&P 500, Nasdaq end lower amid U.S.-China trade war concerns
• Wall Street ends mixed; banks rally on upbeat results
• Gold rises to another record, and traders see potential to rise as high as $5,000/oz

Wednesday, 15 October 2025

• Signs and portents for the U.S. economy:
• Oil rises with US-China trade tensions in focus
• Trump administration to set price floors to combat China’s market manipulation
• US economic activity little changed, employment stable in recent weeks, Fed says
• US retail sales likely rose in September; higher-income consumers drive growth
• Fed minions see early sign of liquidity problems, room for rate cuts:
• US banks tap Fed repo facility as overnight rates climb, signaling funding strain
• Fed's Collins still favors additional rate cuts to aid job market
• Bigger trouble, stimulus developing in China:
• Deflationary pressures persist in China on weak demand, overcapacity
• China to keep its 'all about production' economic playbook as rivalry with US intensifies
• ECB minions say they need to see bigger shocks before changing Eurozone interest rates again:
• ECB should only cut rates further if new shocks hit, Dolenc says
• S&P 500, Nasdaq eke out gains as earnings lift markets, gold reaches $4.2K
• S&P 500 ends higher after strong bank earnings, chip stocks rally

Thursday, 16 October 2025

• Signs and portents for the U.S. economy:
• Oil drops 1%, settles at 5-month lows as Trump-Putin summit looms
• US homebuilder sentiment hits 6-month high; economy uncertainty clouds housing outlook
• Fed minions getting on board with more rate cuts, worry about China:
• Fed's Waller on board for an October rate cut, as Miran again presses for aggressive easing
• Fed's Waller: Available data show ongoing labor weakness, bolstering rate cut case
• Fed's Miran: Growth next year could hinge on how U.S.-China tensions are resolved - Fox Business
• Fed policymakers' focus on tariffs makes central bank seem political: Miran
• Fed's Barkin: Consumers are spending, but not as flush as in pandemic years
• Bigger trouble, stimulus developing in China:
• China's retailers extend Singles' Day to five weeks to revive spending
• BOJ minions want more data to support plans to hike rates:
• Bank of Japan chief signals need for more data in deciding October move
• Hawkish Bank of Japan policymaker calls for more rate hikes
• ECB minions say they shouldn't act to change rates when inflation data changes by small amounts:
• ECB must not overengineer policy on small inflation deviations, Kocher says
• Wall Street slides on trade war concerns, bank loans reports, ongoing U.S. shutdown
• Wall Street ends down; Zions sparks worries about regional banks
• Jefferies, Zions, Western Alliance sink, leading regional bank stocks down on credit risk concern
• Gold hits another record with bank worries in focus alongside trade, rate cuts

Friday, 17 October 2025

• Signs and portents for the U.S. economy:
• Trump says 100% tariffs on China not sustainable, still plans to meet Xi
• Oil set for weekly loss on uncertainty over global supply outlook
• Fed minions thinking economy may not be slowing as much as they think, still lining up to cut rates again:
• Fed's Kashkari: Economy may not be slowing as much as we think
• Fed's Musalem leans toward supporting October interest rate cut
• Bigger trouble, stimulus developing in China:
• Exclusive: WTO chief urges US, China to de-escalate trade war, or risk long-term hit to global growth
• China expected to keep benchmark lending rates steady despite renewed Sino-US tensions
• In China, global companies struggle as home-grown brands steal thunder
• Japan banks going crypto, BOJ minions say they'll hike Japan's interest rates if their forecasts are right:
• Japan's top banks to jointly issue stablecoin, Nikkei says
• BOJ to raise rates if economy aligns with forecasts, deputy governor says
• Japan's core inflation likely re-accelerated in September: Reuters poll
• ECB minions say they're done with Eurozone interest rate cuts:
• More ECB rate cuts increasingly unlikely, Wunsch says
• Wall Street overcomes worries on regional banks' health, government shutdown carries on
• Wall Street ends higher as investors digest Trump trade comments
• Wall Street banks regain ground after global rout on credit worries

The Atlanta Fed's GDPNow tool projection of real GDP growth in the U.S. during the current quarter of 2025-Q3 held steady +3.8% with data reports on hold because of the Senate Democrats' ongoing refusal to allow a vote to fund government operations.

Image credit: Microsoft Copilot Designer. Prompt: "An editorial cartoon of a Wall Street bull and bear watching a tennis match between the US and China on a court that says 'TARIFF WAR'".