2020's Thanksgiving holiday-shortened trading week came and went, leaving the S&P 500 (Index: SPX) sitting atop a new record high for the index before disappearing into market history.

For those who checked out early for the holiday, we'll repeat how we closed the previous edition of the S&P 500 chaos series, since it helps explain this week's update to the alternative futures chart.

On a final note, sharp-eyed readers will note that over the projected future of next two weeks, the alternative futures chart is showing a relatively short duration "echo" of the volatility that struck the market about a month ago. This is an artifact from the model's use of historic stock prices in setting the base reference points from which it projects the future. For longer duration events, we will often add a redzone forecast range to account for the echo effect, but since this upcoming echo is comparatively short, we'll simply note that the trajectory of the S&P 500 will likely appear to "run hot" with respect to the model's projections over these weeks.

Here is this week's alternative futures chart, which shows what running hot looks like in the context of what we just described.

Although we're not adding a redzone forecast to the chart, all that exercise involves is connecting the dots of the projected forecast for a given future quarter investors are focusing upon from a point before the echo effect skews the projection to a more distant point in the future after the echoes of past stock price volatility have dissipated. If we were to add one, we would start by assuming investors would remain focused on 2021-Q3 and connect points for this alternative trajectory on opposite sides of the echo. We would then indicate a range of plus-or-minus three percent of the value of the index to account for typical day-to-day trading volatility.

The current echo, which traces back to the volatility of a month earlier, will run out before the end of this week. But since you now know how that particular magic works, we'll leave it as an exercise for you to either amaze or dismay your friends by making your own redzone forecast with one of our spaghetti forecast charts!

Monday, 23 November 2020

• Signs and portents for the U.S. economy:
• Oil prices settle up over 2% on COVID-19 vaccine news
• U.S. manufacturing, services activity expanding rapidly in November: IHS Markit
• Biden to choose ex-Fed chair Yellen as first woman Treasury secretary, allies say
• Fed minions attempt to peer into the future:
• Fed's Barkin: Next few months could be challenging until vaccine available
• NY Fed's markets head Singh says big challenges remain for economy
• Fed's Evans sees no rate hikes until late 2023, maybe 2024
• Bigger trouble developing in Eurozone, United Kingdom:
• Euro zone business activity shrinks but vaccine hopes boost optimism: Reuters/Ipsos poll
• UK shoppers drop 55% as English lockdown bites
• UK economy shrinks as new lockdown shuts services firms: PMI
• Positive signs of coronavirus recovery in bellwether Singapore, bigger stimulus still being rolled out in China
• Singapore upgrades third-quarter GDP, sees economy returning to growth next year
• China's Li Keqiang tells local governments to create more jobs: state media
• ECB minions plan to keep stimulus rolling out, worry about corporate vulnerability and shadow banks
• ECB emergency bond purchases to last while disruptions persist: Lane
• Euro zone corporate vulnerability at levels seen in debt crisis: ECB
• ECB's Schnabel flags role of shadow banks in passing on policy
• Cyclical boost lifts stocks; Yellen news gives short bump

Tuesday, 24 November 2020

• Signs and portents for the U.S. economy:
• Oil closes at highest level since March on vaccine trials, Biden transition
• Fed minions recognize reality, see benefits to economy from COVID vaccines:
• NY Fed's Williams: Emergency lending programs could be started if needed - WSJ
• Fed's Bullard sees 'light at the end of the tunnel'
• Bigger trouble developing in Eurozone, at small businesses in South Korea and Japan:
• Ifo institute expects German economy to shrink in fourth quarter
• French business morale hits five-month low on new lockdown
• Alone in the dark': South Korea's small businesses reel from new virus clampdown
• Japan's ramen bars struggle to stay open as COVID hammers small firms
• ECB minion argues to keep stimulus rolling out, BOJ minions dismiss deflation fears and prep for bank bailouts:
• ECB should weigh taking longer to hit inflation target: Schnabel
• BOJ's Kuroda rebuffs view Japan heading towards deflation
• BOJ seen spending up to $478 million under bank aid scheme: central bank official
• Bigger stimulus ending in China:
• Analysis: China's bond defaults show Beijing's war on debt is back
• Dow Jones hits 30,000 as Wall Street bets on 2021 bounce

Wednesday, 25 November 2020

• Signs and portents for the U.S. economy:
• U.S. consumer spending rises; income falls in October
• U.S. weekly jobless claims rise as COVID-19 infections surge
• Jobless aid for nearly 14 million Americans to expire the day after Christmas
• Fed minion thinking about more bond buying:
• Fed policymakers may give new bond-buying guidance 'fairly soon': minutes
• Bigger trouble developing in Eurozone, stimulus slowdown in China:
• Euro zone business activity shrinks but vaccine hopes boost optimism
• China construction machinery industry cheers strong 2020 sales but outlook uncertain
• ECB predicts falling house prices while ECB minion cheers former Fed minion's new role:
• Euro zone house prices set for reality check as pandemic bites: ECB
• ECB's de Guindos says Yellen's appointment good for global economy
• S&P 500, Dow pull back from all-time closing highs after grim jobless data

Friday, 27 November 2020

• Daily signs and portents for the U.S. economy:
• Oil prices post weekly gain ahead of OPEC+ meeting
• China hits 26% of 2020 target for U.S. energy imports under trade deal
• Chinese government blaming other nations' products for spreading coronavirus:
• With frozen food clampdown, China points overseas as source of coronavirus
• Bigger trouble developing in Eurozone, Brazil, Chile:
• Euro zone sentiment drops in November as second COVID wave strikes
• Brazil unemployment rate hits record high 14.6%, as people return to look for work
• Chile unemployment eases to 11.6%, remains near decade-long high
• Bigger stimulus rolling out in Eurozone, Japan:
• German virus aid for firms to amount to 4.5 billion euros a week in December
• Japan ruling party proposal backs assistance for COVID-hit airlines
• Japan's Suga vows stimulus package focusing on green, digital innovation
• ECB minions thinking about how to do next COVID stimulus better after first falls flat:
• Euro zone to move on bailout fund reform amid COVID worries
• ECB must enable governments to spend their way out of pandemic: report
• ECB's Villeroy says amount of stimulus not only question
• Analysis: German stimulus fails to turn anxious savers into big spenders
• Wall St. gains, Nasdaq hits record high as holiday shopping begins

A succinct summary of the positives and negatives Barry Ritholtz found in the holiday-shortened trading week's economics and markets news is available over at The Big Picture.

It's the day after Thanksgiving 2020, and like many Americans, we're now pondering what can we have to eat along with our turkey leftovers.

Longtime readers know we have a strong affinity for Campbell's Tomato Soup, since we've tracked the price of an iconic can of the condensed product since 1897.

That's why we were excited to discover the following 21 minute time capsule video from 1952. While it starts with an awful magic act that becomes an awfully long commercial for Campbell's Soups, it really says quite a lot about how Americans lived and ate nearly seven decades ago. Not to mention showing how Campbell's supply chain worked to get the finest ingredients to make its soups and get them to American consumers, as the company's home economist, Ann Marshall, was working to "create new ways in which soup can serve you even better".

We have to admit we were surprised by the very existence of the Chicken-Cranberry Salad featured in the film, which somehow hasn't survived into the 21st century. It seems whatever partnership existed between Campbell's and the Knox gelatin corporation at the time wasn't strong enough for this chilled concoction to endure.

But since we came for tomato soup, here's a quick overview of the suggestions Campbell's had for how to use its tomato soup in your recipes in 1953:

• As a base for beef stew.
• Use it just as it comes from the can as tomato sauce.
• Pour half a can into your meat loaf as an ingredient, then heat and steam the rest of it to cover your meat loaf as a pour-on sauce.
• Make a full-flavored spaghetti sauce from it. Or tomato cheese macaroni.
• A "spicy, mellow-favored" cake!
• A French salad dressing when shaken with oil, vinegar, and seasoning.
• Combined with equal parts clam chowder and milk or water for a really hearty soup.
• Combined with equal parts split pea soup and milk or water to create "Purée Mongole", which apparently "wins rave notices every time".

We didn't know what Purée Mongole was either, but it turns out "it was popular in the 1930s, being served in Manhattan restaurants in New York City. Mongole soup has since declined in popularity and is rarely (if ever) seen today." The New York City hotel chef who created it, Louis Diat, is better known for also creating the cold leek and potato soup known as vichyssoisse in 1917.

Speaking of which, there is a tomato-based version of vichyssoisse that looks pretty appealing. Is anyone else hungry for soup all of a sudden?

Previously on Political Calculations

Our coverage of America's most iconic soup, presented in reverse chronological order!

• The Price History of Campbell's Tomato Soup
• Celebrating 150 Years of the Campbell's Soup Company
• Tomato Soup, Oil and Inflation
• Soup and Steel Tariffs
• Soup and Recession
• Everyday Low Prices
• Of Soup and Silver and the Zombie Apocalypse
• Updated: The Price of Campbell's Tomato Soup Since 1897
• Early Advertising Milestones for Campbell's Condensed Soups
• The First Ad Ever for Campbell's Condensed Soups?
• War and Soup
• The Tomato Soup Standard
• The Price of Campbell's Tomato Soup Since 1897

We hope you have a Happy Thanksgiving. To help achieve that goal, Michael Wade has crafted 10 rules to follow to help ensure your Thanksgiving experience is a happy one.

1. Thou shalt not discuss politics at the dinner. There is next to no chance that you'll convert anyone and any hard feelings that are generated may last long after the pumpkin pie is finished. Why spoil a good meal?
2. Thou shalt limit discussion of The Big Game. This is mainly directed at the men who choose to argue plays, records, and coaches while their wives stare longingly at the silverware. The sharp silverware.
3. Thou shalt say nice things about every dish. Including the bizarre one with Jello and marshmallows.
4. Thou shalt be especially kind to anyone who may feel left out. Some Thanksgiving guests are tag-alongs or, as we say in the business world, "new to the organization." Make a point of drawing them in.
5. Thou shalt be wary of gossip. After all, do you know what they say when you leave the room? Remember the old saying: All of the brothers are valiant and all of the sisters are virtuous.
6. Thou shalt not hog the white or dark meat. We know you're on Atkins but that's no excuse.
7. Thou shalt think mightily before going back for seconds. Especially if that means waddling back for seconds.
8. Thou shalt not get drunk. Strong drink improves neither your wit nor your discretion. Give everyone else a gift by remaining sober.
9. Thou shalt be cheerful. This is not a therapy session. This is not the moment to recount all of the mistakes in your life or to get back at Uncle Bo for the wisecrack he made at your high school graduation. This is a time for Rule #10.
10. Thou shalt be thankful. You're above ground and functioning in an extraordinary place at an extraordinary time. Many people paid a very heavy price (and I'm not talking about groceries) to give you this day. Take some time to think of them and to express gratitude to your friends and relatives. Above all, give special thanks to the divine power who blesses you in innumerable ways.

Ignore any one rule at your own risk. And if it helps, they're not just rules, they're also basic tools you can use to discover happiness in your life after your family's Thanksgiving dinner is over.

Image Credit: Photo by Element5 Digital on Unsplash

The United States is the largest producer of farm-raised turkeys in the world.

That's a statement that raises several questions: How many turkeys are raised on American farms? Where are these turkeys raised within the United States? If the U.S. is the world's largest producer, does it export turkeys to anywhere else in the world?

In 2019, the U.S. Department of Agriculture estimates the answer is 229 million turkeys! And as for where they are raised within America, we created an interactive map to show where farm-raised turkeys can be found within the U.S.

The answer to the third question is yes, the U.S. does export food products made from farm-raised turkeys elsewhere in the world. In the twelve months from October 2019 through September 2020, at least other 87 nations or their territories received turkey products from the U.S. The U.S. Census Bureau's estimates the value of these turkey products added up to more than $441 million.

As for where they specifically went, we created another interactive map, this time of the world, to visualize which countries imported turkey products from the U.S.

The data for the United Kingdom, France, and the Netherlands includes the value of turkey products exported to their overseas territories, many of which are in the Americas where turkeys are a native species, and which account for bulk of their indicated consumption.

Meanwhile, Mexico is the largest consumer of turkey products exported by the U.S., accounting for over $276 million (63%) of the total value of U.S. exports to the world. China was a distant second at $19.4 million (4%), as it significantly increased its imports of U.S.-produced turkey meat to help meet its 'Phase 1' trade agreement obligations and to partially compensate for its extreme shortage of pork resulting from its 2019 outbreak of African Swine Fever within its domestic hog farms.

Thanksgiving is the quintessential American holiday, and for many American households, turkey is the centerpiece of their Thanksgiving dinner.

But how many farm-raised turkeys are there? How much turkey meat is produced each year? And how big is an average farm-raised turkey in the United States?

Political Calculations tracks all these Thanksgiving-related datapoints, tapping the U.S. Department of Agriculture's databases going back to 1970, so you can see how American farm-raised turkeys have changed over the past five decades.

Speaking of change, the population of farm-raised turkeys in the United States has generally fallen since 1996. In 2020, an estimated 222 million turkeys were raised on American farms, which is down some 27% from the peak of 302.7 million raised in 1996.

The figure for 2020 also represents a decline of 7 million from 2019's level, which itself was revised downward from an initial estimate of 240 million.

By contrast, the collective live weight of farm-raised turkeys has generally plateaued since 1996, falling within a range between 6.877 billion pounds (1999) and 7.922 billion pounds (2008). The initial estimate of the live weight of 2020's 222 million farm-raised turkeys is 7.175 billion pounds.

The combination of a generally flat total live weight for all turkeys produced on American farms with a falling number of birds can only be explained by the growing size of individual turkeys. In 2020, we estimate the average weight of a live farm-raised turkey in the U.S. is 32.3 pounds, down slightly from 2019's revised figure of 32.5 pounds.

Compared to the decade of the 1970s, when the average farm-raised turkey tipped the scale at 18.7 pounds, that represents a 73% increase in the typical size of turkeys produced in the U.S., where their average weight has steadily risen over the last four decades.

That trend may be changing however, because smaller turkeys are in high demand as Americans downsize for 2020's Thanksgiving. With celebrations limited to immediate family members with the ongoing coronavirus pandemic, American consumers have been bypassing larger birds in favor of smaller ones.

Data Sources

National Turkey Federation. Sourcebook. [PDF Document]. October 2013.

U.S. Department of Agriculture. National Agricultural Statistics Service. Poultry - Production and Value: 2019 Summary. [PDF Document]. April 2020.

U.S. Department of Agriculture. National Agricultural Statistics Service. Turkeys Raised. [Online Database]. Accessed 1 November 2020.

U.S. Department of Agriculture. Economic Research Service. Livestock, Dairy, and Poultry Outlook. (LDP-M-316). [PDF Document]. 16 October 2020.

In the previous edition of our S&P 500 chaos series, we reported investors had shifted their forward looking focus from 2020-Q4 outward to 2021-Q3, after news of an effective vaccine to combat the SARS-CoV-2 coronavirus pandemic broke.

Since then, news of more vaccines developed to prevent COVID-19 filled the news stream, and investors have remained focused on 2021-Q3. The latest update to our alternature futures chart visualizes that state of affairs through the close of trading on Friday, 20 November 2020.

Why would investors focus on 2021-Q3 in response to positive vaccine development news? Or rather, why wouldn't they focus their attention on any other future point of time?

Investment manager Barry Ritholtz explains why investors would seeming pluck 2021-Q3 to focus upon out of thin air in his 20 November 2020 blog post "The Halfway Point". Go read the whole thing, but here's an excerpt that takes investors right up to the doorstep of 2021-Q3.

Here is a shocking observation:

The pandemic lockdown began in March of 2020. As of today, the two leading vaccine candidates from Pfizer and Moderna are requesting FDA approval for emergency use, then a fast track approval for distribution. These should become available in Q1, then be more widely distributed in Q2 and Q3. Best estimates for any form of herd immunity is later next year. Expectations are for life to begin to return to normal — meaning, going to back to work, mask-less social interactions, commuting, public events, etc. — are for sometime around June 2021.

From the March 2020 lockdown to a June 2021 re-opening is a 16-month span. The halfway mark? It’s today.

What we're seeing in the alternative futures chart suggests investors are being a bit more cautious in anticipating the post-pandemic "reopening" beginning after June 2021, but otherwise, what Barry is describing is exactly how investor expectations have come to focus on a specific point of time in the future, which is directly affecting today's stock prices.

That's exactly what the dividend futures-based model we use to project the potential future trajectories the S&P 500 might take is designed to do, provided you know how far forward in time investors are focusing their attention in planning their current day investment decisions. And now, even though nothing in the news itself has specifically pointed to that future quarter, we now have a coherent explanation for why investors would suddenly fix their forward-looking attention upon the distant future quarter of 2021-Q3.

At least, until they have reason to shift their focus to another point of time in the future, or the expectations for dividends at that point of time significantly changes. Both of which is subject to the random onset of new information.

Speaking of which, here are the samples we pulled out of the news stream for the week that was, based on their market-moving potential.

Monday, 16 November 2020

• Daily signs and portents for the U.S. economy:
• Moderna says its vaccine is 94.5% effective in preventing COVID-19
• Factbox: Moderna's mRNA coronavirus vaccine
• Moderna vaccine is second to exceed expectations; mutated virus may be more vulnerable to new vaccines
• Oil settles higher boosted by latest COVID-19 vaccine progress
• OPEC+ meeting ends with broad support for extension to oil cuts: sources
• Fed minions focus on fighting racism, change in outlook with new vaccines:
• Fed's Daly: need both impatience and patience to solve racial justice, other problems
• Faster recovery odds have risen with vaccine developments: Fed's Clarida
• Bigger trouble developing in the Eurozone:
• UK shopper numbers plunge as English lockdown makes impact
• German economy stagnating or shrinking amid second wave of virus: Bundesbank
• ECB minions worry about exchange rates, hear demands for more aid:
• ECB's De Cos says foreign exchange moves between U.S. Dollar and euro is worrying
• Euro zone needs more help from ECB and govts, policymakers say
• Meanwhile, in Asia...
• China's fourth-quarter economic growth will accelerate from third quarter: stats bureau
• China's factory output beats forecasts as Asia shakes off COVID slump
• Japan's economy vaults back from COVID-induced recession, but outlook murky
• Thai economy shrinks less than expected, outlook raised
• S&P 500, Dow close at all-time highs on reignited vaccine hopes
• Tesla to join S&P 500, spark epic index fund trade
• Pfizer shares drop as Moderna vaccine seen easier to distribute

Tuesday, 17 November 2020

• Daily signs and portents for the U.S. economy:
• Oil edges lower after settlement as U.S. stockpiles build, pandemic lockdowns loom
• Exclusive: OPEC+ sees oil cut extension curbing 2021 rise in oil stocks, document shows
• U.S. farmers celebrate soy price surge as Brazil misses out
• U.S. retail sales lose speed as pandemic, lack of fiscal stimulus weigh
• McConnell open to $500 billion for coronavirus relief
• Fed minions step up bailout relief loans, disproportionate impact of coronavirus lockdown recession on blacks:
• Fed's Powell signals emergency credit programs should be extended
• Fed's Bostic: U.S. faces short-run problems, medium-term hopes on vaccine: CNBC
• Fed's Bostic says recovery has been weakest for Black workers
• Bigger trouble developing in Eurozone:
• Euro zone economy likely already in double-dip recession: Reuters poll
• ECB minion doesn't think COVID-19 vaccines will affect Eurozone economic outlook:
• Coronavirus vaccine no game changer for ECB forecasts, Lagarde says
• China setting expectations for much slower growth:
• China will promote economic growth to a 'reasonable' range: Premier Li
• China should set around 5% GDP goal for 2021-2025: think tank economist
• Wall Street closes lower as shutdown worries loom

Wednesday, 18 November 2020

• Daily signs and portents for the U.S. economy:
• Oil gains 1% on potential OPEC+ rethink and vaccine hopes
• U.S. import boom is delaying cargo at nation's busiest port
• U.S. housing starts blow past expectations; COVID-19 poses risk
• Fed minions go into wait and see mode:
• Rate cut bets melt as vaccines boost economy hopes
• Fed's Barkin: 'let's see how it goes' on whether more QE needed
• NY Fed's Williams says rapid increase in virus infections could hurt economy
• Deflation returns to Eurozone:
• Euro zone inflation confirmed negative in October on weak energy
• Wall Street dives as shutdown worries overshadow vaccine hopes
• S&P 500 dividends seen dropping 1% in 2020

Thursday, 19 November 2020

• Daily signs and portents for the U.S. economy:
• Oil slips a second day as coronavirus cases spiral amid stimulus talks
• U.S. existing home sales rise for fifth straight month
• 'Dial back' or 'emergency brake?' New lockdowns and the U.S. economy
• Mnuchin pulls plug on some pandemic lending programs that Fed considers essential
• Instant View: Mnuchin asks Fed to return money for emergency lending
• Fed minions want more government spending, upset at possibility it won't happen:
• Fed's Bostic: would be prudent to keep U.S. emergency lending programs open
• Fed's Kaplan says economy could shrink as virus surges
• Fed's Mester says lack of fiscal aid and rising infections concerning: Bloomberg TV
• Bigger trouble developing in Eurozone:
• Germany's partial lockdown is hitting skilled trades sector: ZDH
• Bigger stimulus developing in China:
• China to cut tariffs, boost imports of high-quality goods and services: Xi
• ECB minions claim ECB can never go bankrupt or run out of money, focus on climate risks:
• ECB can't go bankrupt even it suffers losses
• ECB's Weidmann calls on cenbanks to address climate-related financial risks: FT
• Wall Street closes higher as new stimulus talks ease shutdown worries

Friday, 20 November 2020

• Daily signs and portents for the U.S. economy:
• Oil rises about 1%, posts third week of gains on vaccine hopes
• 'Dial back' or 'emergency brake?' New lockdowns and the U.S. economy
• Fed to return unspent coronavirus relief funds to U.S. government:
• Fed's Powell says will return Treasury funds as programs set to lapse
• Investors say Fed 'backstops' removed by Treasury were little used but lifted confidence
• Explainer: Fed lending programs - What did they accomplish? How hard would it be to bring them back?
• Treasury's Fed funding clawback will not 'hamstring' new administration: official
• Senate leader McConnell seeks to 'repurpose' expiring Fed lending for coronavirus
• Fed minions see growth ahead, but want more government spending, disappointed over losing slush fund it wasn't using:
• Fed's George sees virus, fiscal fade as risks to U.S. outlook
• Fed's George sees recovery headwinds from energy sector
• Fed's Kaplan says U.S. economy needs more fiscal support
• Fed's Evans says end of pandemic relief 'disappointing'
• Bigger economic trouble developing in Eurozone:
• French, Italian economies hurt most under second lockdowns
• ECB minions focus like lasers on climate policies instead:
• ECB has no mandate for direct role in climate change fight: Weidmann
• EU plans tight car CO2 limits under green finance rules
• ECB must incorporate climate change into policy approach: Villeroy
• Wall Street closes lower as surging COVID-19 cases offset vaccine hopes

The Big Picture's Barry Ritholtz also listed the positives and negatives he found in the past week's economics and markets news. Barry's weekly series is a good starting place for picking up additional context that percolates in the background beyond the headlines we feature for their market-moving potential.

On a final note, sharp-eyed readers will note that over the projected future of next two weeks, the alternative futures chart is showing a relatively short duration "echo" of the volatility that struck the market about a month ago. This is an artifact from the model's use of historic stock prices in setting the base reference points from which it projects the future. For longer duration events, we will often add a redzone forecast range to account for the echo effect, but since this upcoming echo is comparatively short, we'll simply note that the trajectory of the S&P 500 will likely appear to "run hot" with respect to the model's projections over these weeks.

Every three months, we take a snapshot of the expectations for future earnings in the S&P 500 (Index: SPX) at approximately the midpoint of the current quarter, shortly after most U.S. firms have announced their previous quarter's earnings.

The latest forecast for S&P 500 earnings through the end of 2020 suggests a less deep earnings recession than the forecast from the Summer 2020 snapshot, indicated a better-than-previously-expected bottom for the Coronavirus Recession. At the same time, S&P continues to project a robust recovery for earnings in 2021, although not as strong as it did three months ago.

The chart shows two previous earnings recessions for the S&P 500, going back to 2014. As you can see from the historic earnings per share data shown in the chart, Standard & Poor has a history of making optimistic projections, which are often revised downward. Changes in S&P's projections for 2021 will be something to watch as we get into 2021, especially with the prospects for a global double-dip recession.

Data Source

Silverblatt, Howard. Standard & Poor. S&P 500 Earnings and Estimates. [Excel Spreadsheet]. 12 November 2020. Accessed 19 November 2020.

One week ago, we projected the state of Arizona would soon arrive at a critical juncture in its experience with the coronavirus pandemic. With the rate of ICU bed usage in the state for COVID-19 patients now surpassing a key threshold, that time has now arrived.

That state of affairs may be seen in a chart tracking Daily COVID-19 ICU Bed Usage in Arizona, where the number of beds occupied by COVID-19 patients now exceeds the level would be considered easily sustainable.

Arizona's hospitals still have available ICU bed capacity, so the situation in the state isn't as critical as other areas that are currently experiencing a significant surge in cases. What exceeding this threshold means is that Arizona hospitals need to begin more actively managing their ICU beds usage to accommodate the rising numbers of COVID-19 patients. Ideally, those measures will involve increasing their ICU bed capacity. Unlike many states, Arizona saw two new hospitals open this month in its major metropolitan areas, which will provide some additional breathing room.

Sharp eyed readers will note we've added a new event to this chart. Event I marks an increase in the trend for COVID-19 ICU bed usage that coincides with political events that took place in the state during the period from 23 October 2020 through 25 October 2020. Using the back calculation method to identify the period in which the incidence of coronavirus exposures points to this period as a significant event. The latest update to our chart tracking daily new COVID-19 hospital admissions in Arizona identifies each of the major events associated with a changes in the risk of coronavirus exposure among Arizona's population.

The data for this latter chart is still incomplete, where the ICU bed usage chart has proven to be a good real time indicator of the progression of SARS-CoV-2 coronavirus infections within the state. We anticipate the rolling 7-day moving average will soon confirm the surge in COVID-19 hospitalizations.

Data for positive COVID-19 test results in Arizona already confirms a surge in new cases, pointing once again to the period of 23 October 2020 through 25 October 2020 as the period in which the incidence of new infections increased. The following chart of daily newly confirmed COVID-19 cases in Arizona shows the latest surge:

Meanwhile, since it has the greatest lag between the incidence of exposure and observed change in trend, a chart of deaths attributed to COVID-19 in Arizona does not yet confirm a change in trend. We project the rolling 7-day moving average of coronavirus deaths will show a change in trend taking place in the period from 9 November through 13 November 2020 as these deaths are reported in the weeks ahead.

We track Arizona's COVID-19 data because the state provides high quality, relatively detailed data that makes it possible to use the back calculation method to identify when the rate of incidence of coronavirus infections has changed for the state's residents. To better show how that method works, we put together the following chart to track the incidence of COVID-19 infections among the various demographic age groups reported by Arizona's Department of Health Services. The chart focuses on the time from 9 August 2020 through 18 November 2020, which covers Arizona's 'back-to-school' period for its state universities.

In this chart, we're identifying trend-changing events by number instead of letter, so here's the basic summary:

1. 20-22 August 2020: In-person classes begin at state universities.
2. 4-6 September 2020: Social mixing during Labor Day weekend.
3. 13-15 September 2020: University of Arizona imposes lockdown measures on its students (the outbreak of cases in the state during this time was concentrated at the UA campus). After this third significant event affecting the incidence of new coronavirus cases in Arizona, it's important to note the divergence that takes place among demographic age groups in the state. The Age 0-19 group sees a falling number of cases, as Arizona schools have measures that are largely effective in limiting the spread of new cases. But the Age 20-44 group sees an increasing number of cases as compared to all other age groups, where this group is the most likely to frequent high exposure risk venues, such as bars, gyms, and other businesses for which public health officials have established specific operating requirements.
4. 23-25 October 2020: Political rallies centered around the occasion of the 24 October 2020 National Vote Early Day, less than two weeks ahead of the U.S. elections.

The current upward trend in cases and what we can identify as contributing factors to it using the back calculation method suggests the most effective approach state and local government officials can take to reverse its adverse trend would be to restrict the operation of high exposure risk businesses in local communities as the ICU beds usage within them nears 95% of capacity. Arizona has already demonstrated a decentralized approach can be highly effective in coping with a surge in cases, without unnecessarily imposing economic hardships on the state's residents in areas where the number of cases and burden on loal hospital resources is relatively low.

Local officials could also mandate wearing masks at public venues within their jurisdictions, though we think this option would provide little benefit. That is because most areas in the state already have relatively high rates of compliance with wearing masks inside local businesses, where there is little evidence to suggest a statewide mandate would significantly alter the trend. The current situation differs from the situation that applied during the summer when Arizona became a national hotspot for COVID-19 infections, when the rate of mask wearing was very low prior to the state governor's order allowing local officials to impose mask wearing requirements for their residents. Starting from an already higher level of mask wearing, any additional benefit that might be realized is much smaller.

With the elections now in the past, removing that contributor to the risk of virus exposure, Arizona's next challenge in its coronavirus pandemic experience will be to address the social mixing that will take place during the Thanksgiving holiday. We'll present our next follow up after the holidays to see how the state fared.

Previously on Political Calculations

Here's our previous Arizona coronavirus coverage, with a sampling of some of our other COVID analysis!

• Arizona To Soon Reach A Critical Junction For COVID-19
• Getting More Than Care from Arizona's COVID ICU Beds
• Arizona's Decentralized Approach to Beating COVID
• Going Back to School with COVID-19
• Arizona Turns Second Corner Toward Crushing Coronavirus
• Arizona's Coronavirus Crest in Rear View Mirror
• The Coronavirus Turns a Corner in Arizona
• A Delayed First Wave Crests in the U.S. and a Second COVID-19 Wave Arrives
• The Coronavirus in Arizona
• A Closer Look at COVID-19 Deaths in Arizona
• The New Epicenter of COVID-19 in the U.S.
• How Long Does a Serious COVID Infection Typically Last?
• How Deadly is the COVID-19 Coronavirus?
• Governor Cuomo and the Coronavirus Models
• How Do False Test Outcomes Affect Estimates of the True Incidence of Coronavirus Infections?
• How Fast Could China's Coronavirus Spread?

References

Arizona Department of Health Services. COVID-19 Data Dashboard. [Online Application/Database].

Maricopa County Coronavirus Disease (COVID-19). COVID-19 Data Archive. Maricopa County Daily Data Reports. [PDF Document Directory, Daily Dashboard].

Stephen A. Lauer, Kyra H. Grantz, Qifang Bi, Forrest K. Jones, Qulu Zheng, Hannah R. Meredith, Andrew S. Azman, Nicholas G. Reich, Justin Lessler. The Incubation Period of Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) From Publicly Reported Confirmed Cases: Estimation and Application. Annals of Internal Medicine, 5 May 2020. https://doi.org/10.7326/M20-0504.

U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. COVID-19 Pandemic Planning Scenarios. [PDF Document]. Updated 10 September 2020.

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More or Less: Behind the Stats. Ethnic minority deaths, climate change and lockdown. Interview with Kit Yates discussing back calculation. BBC Radio 4. [Podcast: 8:18 to 14:07]. 29 April 2020.

Three weeks ago, we began following Iron Mountain (NYSE: IRM), a Real Estate Investment Trust (REIT) whose core business is documents management. While the company is best known today for archiving the paper records of large corporations, it has been increasing its investments into electronic records management technology to expand its business in the digital age.

The reason we chose this particular company to follow is because it appeared to be on the cusp of pursuing one of two potential paths with respect to its dividend policy. IRM's stock price had been crushed with the coronavirus pandemic in 2020, where the company's market cap with respect to its aggregate dividends had fallen below its historic range.

So much so that, one week before its 2020-Q3 earnings call with investors, the level of its market capitalization suggested it had a strong chance of either cutting its dividends per share by a third or holding its dividend steady with a slim possibility of a small increase. The latter scenario assumes the firm had been successful in restructuring its debt during the previous three months, which would free up funds to sustain its generous dividend.

Iron Mountain's 2020-Q3 earnings call then came and went on 5 November 2020. The company's management chose the second path, which allows us to update the visual assessment of the relative value of the company's market cap with respect to its aggregate dividends against the historic backdrop of the relationship between these two financial measures during the past ten years.

IRM has taken advantage of falling interest rates prompted by the pandemic to restructure much of its short term debt, which has taken the prospect of a significant dividend cut off the table at this time. Here's a relevant excerpt of CEO William Meaney's comments on the topic from the transcript of IRM's 2020-Q3 earnings call:

Turning to cash flow and the balance sheet, we are operating from a position of significant balance sheet strength. In the third quarter, our team did a nice job delivering further cash cycle improvement with solid performance in both payables days and days sales outstanding. On a sequential basis, cash cycle improved by a full day as a result of continued DSO improvement. In August, the team executed another successful bond refinancing, issuing $1.1 billion to redeem our most restrictive outstanding debt and pay down a portion of the outstanding balance under our revolving credit facility.

The continued strong support received from the fixed income community provided us the opportunity to upsize our transaction while printing the lowest coupon for 10-year notes in the company’s history. Taken together with our bond offerings in June, we issued $3.5 billion of new debt on a leverage-neutral basis, increased our weighted average maturity by over two years to nearly eight years, while only modestly increasing our weighted average cost of debt.

Additionally, these new bonds are more in line with our REIT peers as they include a fixed charge coverage ratio as opposed to a debt to EBITDA covenant. Also, I think it is worth noting that we have eliminated all of our 6.5 times leverage covenant bonds, meaning our most restrictive bond covenant is now 7 times debt to EBITDA.

At quarter end, we had $1.7 billion of liquidity. As a reminder, at the end of the second quarter, we had elevated levels of cash on our balance sheet due to the timing of the payoff of one of our notes from the June bond offering. We paid off the notes in early July, leaving us with a cash balance at September 30 of $152 million.

We ended the quarter with net lease adjusted leverage of 5.3 times, which takes into account adjustments as described in our credit facility. Looking ahead, we expect to end the year with leverage of approximately 5.5 times, which would represent an improvement year-on-year as we make progress towards our long term leverage range.

That's important because companies generally need at least one of two things to be positive to sustain their dividends over time: their earnings and their cash flow. IRM priortized restructuring its debt to reduce the pressure it presented on its cash flow, which allows it to preserve its dividend, which it left unchanged. Here are Meaney's comments on that subject, which immediately followed his comments on IRM's debt restructuring:

With our strong financial position, our board of directors declared our quarterly dividend of $0.62 per share to be paid in early January.

Turning to capital expenditures, our full year expectation is now approximately $450 million, or a decrease of $75 million, reflecting development capital for our Frankfurt data center that will now be a part of our venture with AGC.

Meaney continues describing how IRM's plan to sustain its dividend can be maintained while the company continues to expand its electronics records management business line:

Now let me share a few thoughts as to our capital allocation strategy. First, we are committed to our dividend at this sustainable level and over time, we expect to glide into our targeted AFFO payout ratio of mid-60%. Second, we are committed to our target long term leverage range of 4.5 to 5.5 times on a net lease adjusted basis. This year, the team has made good progress toward our target.

As investors know, we have been allocating significant capital to our data center business for several years, and as our pipeline continues to build with high return investment opportunities, our strategic intent is to increase the amount of capital we dedicate to the business. With that, we have considered options to generate incremental funds for investment.

We view capital recycling as a good means to monetize certain assets, particularly industrial real estate to increasingly invest in our development pipeline. Industrial cap rate are at historically low levels, and we have the opportunity to structure long term leases on favorable terms that effectively allow us to have control of the facilities, whether we lease or own. With that, in the third quarter our team accessed the market and monetized two facilities for proceeds of approximately $110 million. This brings our year-to-date proceeds to nearly $120 million, ahead of our full year target of $100 million.

With the highly favorable market backdrop together with our development pipeline, we are planning to recycle relatively more going forward, albeit what will amount to a small portion of our total industrial assets. Similarly, we view selling stabilized data center assets into a joint venture as analogous to monetizing industrial real estate assets - it represents another source of capital to redeploy into development projects. The joint venture we just announced in Frankfurt is a good example of this strategy. The JV provides us with an opportunity to boost returns on stabilized assets and provides incremental capital to allocate to projects in the development phase.

We think Iron Mountain's plan minimizes the risk of a dividend cut but doesn't eliminate its exposure to other factors that might ultimately lead to that outcome. While the company's stock saw a boost to $27.48 per share on the day of the earnings call, in the two weeks since, it has fallen by 5.7% to $25.90 per share.

That fall largely coincides with the introduction of new lockdown measures in Europe to try to bring the spread of new coronavirus infections down to levels where its national health systems are capable of managing it. It has also occurred despite the major announcements of two COVID-19 vaccines with greater than 90% effectiveness in their Phase 3 trials, which will start being distributed before the end of 2020 and have hundreds of millions of doses distributed worldwide in 2021.

That makes IRM's stock more interesting than what we realized when we first selected it to follow. Following its recent stock price history, we find it has risen and fallen with the waves of coronavirus infections in the regions Iron Mountain does business, which makes it something of an indicator of how investors anticipate the coronavirus pandemic will affect business activities upon the company's large, established customer base, and by extension, the firm's revenues.

In maintaining its current dividend level, Iron Mountain stands to gain substantially if its stock price and market cap recovers to levels consistent with how investors have historically valued the company's dividends. But unlike stocks whose prices have risen on speculation from recent vaccine development news, we think Iron Mountain's stock price is reflecting what they anticipate for its actual business conditions in the year ahead.

That makes investing in IRM a COVID-19 play, or rather, a bet on the future for the coronavirus pandemic's real world impact on business activities. Knowing where the company stands today, how would you place your bets on its future?

Previously on Political Calculations

• Forecasting Market Caps and Aggregate Dividends
• Goldilocks, Market Cap, and Aggregate Dividends

Image Source: Photo by Adam Nowakowski on Unsplash